Where We Stand (PPDvPwr5 edition)

AE 87

Helluva Engineer
Messages
13,015
Again, I don't want to get into old debates about our last coach. So, I waited a few days to clear up some possible misunderstandings of this stat. The basic premise is that the best teams are the teams whose offense scores more than their defense allows.

Now, it may happen that some games are won or lost by defensive or special teams scores, but those games are more the exception than the rule. Generally speaking, we see the impact of good play on Special Teams in how it makes it easier for the offense to score or the defense to prevent scoring.

So, I've put together a table for the 2020 season comparing the CFP Rankings with two rankings using my PPDvPwr5 stat, Diff PPD (OffPPD-DefPPD) and Ratio PPD (OffPPD/DefPPD). I've also included the AP and Coach's Poll Rankings.

There are some teams, like Coastal Carolina, which will not show up in my rankings because they played too few games against Pwr5 opponents.

Top 25CFPDiff PPDRatioPPDAPCoach's
1AlabamaAlabamaAlabamaAlabamaAlabama
2ClemsonClemsonClemsonOhio StateOhio State
3Ohio StateIowa StateIowa StateClemsonClemson
4Notre DameOklahomaIowaTexas A&MTexas A&M
5Texas A&MArizona StateOklahomaNotre DameNotre Dame
6OklahomaOhio StateArizona StateOklahomaOklahoma
7FloridaTexas A&MTexas A&MGeorgiaGeorgia
8CincinnatiIowaOhio StateCincinnatiCincinnati
9GeorgiaFloridaNorthwesternIowa StateIowa State
10Iowa StateGeorgiaGeorgiaNorthwesternNorthwestern
11IndianaNorth CarolinaWisconsinBYUBYU
12Coastal CarolinaNotre DameIndianaIndianaFlorida
13North CarolinaNorthwesternNotre DameFloridaIndiana
14NorthwesternUSCFloridaCoastal CarolinaCoastal Carolina
15IowaIndianaUSCLouisianaIowa
16BYUWashingtonNorth CarolinaIowa StateLouisiana
17USCWisconsinLiberty*LibertyNorth Carolina
18MiamiTexasWashington*North CarolinaLiberty
19LouisianaLibertyTexasTexasOklahoma State
20TexasMiami (Florida)Miami (Florida)Oklahoma StateTexas
21Oklahoma StateOklahoma StateOklahoma StateUSCUSC
22San José StateUCLAUCLA*MiamiMiami
23NC StatePenn StatePenn State*Ball StateBall State
24TulsaUtahUtah*San José StateSan José State
25OregonWest Virginia*West Virginia*BuffaloBuffalo
North Carolina State*
* indicates that consecutive teams were tied in the ranking

Now, I think these comparisons validate the stat. That is to say, since the team rankings derived from OffPPD and DefPPD are largely in line with the major team rankings, it follows that these stats are a decent measure of the offense and defense individually.

So, anyway, I do think we can trust the stats from the OP in giving us a good indicator of the strength of our team, and our offense and defense individually, historically, as well as where we stand now in that context.
 

DieselTeeth

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
157
Interesting. I watched again all the condensed games that were available from 2020. (OK, glutton for punishment, so sue me.) What stood out to me was about what I was thinking in real time. If Jeff makes it through this year unscathed, it will be damn near miraculous. In the Notre Dame game he was hit hard almost every time he went back to pass. We will not get better unless the lines on both sides of the ball get better. The hoopla over recruiting defensive backs wide receivers and running backs is nice but they can't do it all. In the Louisville game, their wide receiver literally ran all the way across the field with poor Tre Swilling trying to cover him and the quarterback had time to throw it to him. I would like to know what players we will be missing from both transfers and graduating that will be missed the most. I am thinking Harvin and Camp but there might be a couple from the portal I have forgotten about that we may miss about as much.
Pass rush will be much improved this year. Way more depth on the edge this coming season.
 

TruckStick

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
515
Cochran Pendley and Kirby will determine o line improvement.
Kevin Harris, AC, JD, TK, Kennard, and Ivey will determine d line improvement.

I would say most of our success will be determine by those guys. The other line guys pretty much are a baseline from the last two years.
 
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