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Where Do You Expect GT to Finish Next Year? 50th Is Reasonable.
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<blockquote data-quote="GTNavyNuke" data-source="post: 39736" data-attributes="member: 322"><p>In another thread I posted stuff that for all of D1 football shows a 1/3 correlation between recruiting and end of season Power Rankings. <a href="http://gtswarm.com/community/threads/how-good-is-recruiting-data-at-predicting-end-of-season-power-ranking-performance.2122/#post-39733" target="_blank">http://gtswarm.com/community/threads/how-good-is-recruiting-data-at-predicting-end-of-season-power-ranking-performance.2122/#post-39733</a></p><p></p><p>Now for the specific case of GT, here's a chart that shows our 4 year average (Scout) recruiting ranking and compares it to our end of year (J Howell) Power Ranking. You can see that our performance pretty much bounces around how our average recruiting rankings have done. </p><p></p><p>For CPJ's 6 years, the team has outperformed three years relative to recruiting and under performed three years. </p><p></p><p>Since our recruiting averaged over four years is getting worse relative to other schools, we should expect about the same or worse performance this coming year - to finish up about 40th to 60th.</p><p></p><p>If you look for the last four years at schools which have recruited about as we have and look at their performance rankings, we have about a 4% chance of being top 20 and 15% chance of being top 30. </p><p></p><p>Of course, there is always hope since TCU, Boise State, Houston and Kansas State all finished top 10 in one of the last four years and recruited worse than we did. But they are outliers.</p><p></p><p><strong>I hope we are going to have a break out season. But I'm going into the season with "reasonable" expectations of continued mediocre (50th) performance. </strong></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="GTNavyNuke, post: 39736, member: 322"] In another thread I posted stuff that for all of D1 football shows a 1/3 correlation between recruiting and end of season Power Rankings. [url]http://gtswarm.com/community/threads/how-good-is-recruiting-data-at-predicting-end-of-season-power-ranking-performance.2122/#post-39733[/url] Now for the specific case of GT, here's a chart that shows our 4 year average (Scout) recruiting ranking and compares it to our end of year (J Howell) Power Ranking. You can see that our performance pretty much bounces around how our average recruiting rankings have done. For CPJ's 6 years, the team has outperformed three years relative to recruiting and under performed three years. Since our recruiting averaged over four years is getting worse relative to other schools, we should expect about the same or worse performance this coming year - to finish up about 40th to 60th. If you look for the last four years at schools which have recruited about as we have and look at their performance rankings, we have about a 4% chance of being top 20 and 15% chance of being top 30. Of course, there is always hope since TCU, Boise State, Houston and Kansas State all finished top 10 in one of the last four years and recruited worse than we did. But they are outliers. [B]I hope we are going to have a break out season. But I'm going into the season with "reasonable" expectations of continued mediocre (50th) performance. [/B] [/QUOTE]
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Where Do You Expect GT to Finish Next Year? 50th Is Reasonable.
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