Where Do You Expect GT to Finish Next Year? 50th Is Reasonable.

GTNavyNuke

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In another thread I posted stuff that for all of D1 football shows a 1/3 correlation between recruiting and end of season Power Rankings. http://gtswarm.com/community/thread...on-power-ranking-performance.2122/#post-39733

Now for the specific case of GT, here's a chart that shows our 4 year average (Scout) recruiting ranking and compares it to our end of year (J Howell) Power Ranking. You can see that our performance pretty much bounces around how our average recruiting rankings have done.

For CPJ's 6 years, the team has outperformed three years relative to recruiting and under performed three years.

Since our recruiting averaged over four years is getting worse relative to other schools, we should expect about the same or worse performance this coming year - to finish up about 40th to 60th.

If you look for the last four years at schools which have recruited about as we have and look at their performance rankings, we have about a 4% chance of being top 20 and 15% chance of being top 30.

Of course, there is always hope since TCU, Boise State, Houston and Kansas State all finished top 10 in one of the last four years and recruited worse than we did. But they are outliers.

I hope we are going to have a break out season. But I'm going into the season with "reasonable" expectations of continued mediocre (50th) performance.
 

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dressedcheeseside

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Roll these and you'll have as good a prediction as anybody.

 

daBuzz

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Roll these and you'll have as good a prediction as anybody.


What's the secret to getting these things to roll? I'm shaking the crap out of my iPad Air and nothing's happening!

But to answer the original question, I'd say 37. If it weren't for a fairly easy schedule, I would say 50 is about right.
 

GTNavyNuke

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What's the secret to getting these things to roll? I'm shaking the crap out of my iPad Air and nothing's happening!

But to answer the original question, I'd say 37. If it weren't for a fairly easy schedule, I would say 50 is about right.

The great thing about using Power Rankings is that it takes into account the strength of the opponent and where the game is played.

I'm optimistic and "expect" us to end up at 25th based in a change that I can believe in (Roof, ST and CPJ adapting since his O sucked last year). But from a calculational point of view based only on past performance and our recent recruiting, 50th is the area we should be in.

BTW, God doesn't play dice, why should we? http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/multimedia/2013/mar/04/why-did-einstein-say-god-doesnt-play-dice
 

iceeater1969

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Assuming we don't just try to squeak by in first three games by being conservative ( keep all the offense plain vanilla and bend but don't break plenty of cushion) but from first toe meets leather coach open up full throttle, petal to metal and let everyone play, by end season we will be dangerous. We stumble a few times and recover to win most times but we will be ready for hate week and 2015. I think we will win 8 - 9 and be excited for next year. We beat either clemson or Miami.


Assuming we play conservative in first three games and don't get minutes for subs when we experience a few injuries in the meat of the schedule, we will here about miscues, need to be perfect as back into a 6-7 wins and dread 2015.

I think coach is ready to rumble.
 

daBuzz

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I don't know where we finish on the season but I'm going to mortgage my house and my mother's house that we beat Virginia Tech this year.

I know you're joking about the mortgage, but I'm wondering why the optimism about this particular game?
 

00Burdell

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I know you're joking about the mortgage, but I'm wondering why the optimism about this particular game?
I would think after the streak of close-but-no-cigar games we've had against these guys that VT would rise to the position of Circle Game for us. IOW, I think we have had it with losing to these clowns and will provision additional resources to winning this game in particular. Just a hunch.
 

daBuzz

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I would think after the streak of close-but-no-cigar games we've had against these guys that VT would rise to the position of Circle Game for us. IOW, I think we have had it with losing to these clowns and will provision additional resources to winning this game in particular. Just a hunch.

Boy, do I hope you're right. The pessimist in me says that Bud Foster has figured out how to stop us and that, even when we beat them at Grant Field and they were ranked, it was quite a struggle.

But my next-door-neighbor is a VT grad and former player. I get tired of losing to them every year so I'd love to be wrong in this case.
 

00Burdell

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Boy, do I hope you're right. The pessimist in me says that Bud Foster has figured out how to stop us and that, even when we beat them at Grant Field and they were ranked, it was quite a struggle.
Bud Foster is a good DC but he' s no match for our offense if we could just execute it properly.
 

SkyBuzz

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I am the kind of guy who hopes we always wins but thinks we will always lose. I thought that after the 20-0 lead in the UGAG game. My heart has been broken to many times in the last 49 years. having said that...... I believe we win more than 10 games and end up in the top 15. Very Optimistic from a big Supporter but pessimistic alum.
SkyBuzz(y)
 
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I know you're joking about the mortgage, but I'm wondering why the optimism about this particular game?

In the same way that "God does not play dice with the universe", there is no such thing as the Law of Averages. But. . . . . . . .we are overdue to beat the Hokies, and they have been trending downward for three to four years. Unfortunately so have we, and specifically when we are on the same field with them. There is a tiny bit of trouble in Hillbilly Heaven, some Va. Tech faithful are grumbling about Grandpappy Beamer being in his dotage, etc. Would be nice to help push that one out the door, eh?
 
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Boy, do I hope you're right. The pessimist in me says that Bud Foster has figured out how to stop us and that, even when we beat them at Grant Field and they were ranked, it was quite a struggle.

But my next-door-neighbor is a VT grad and former player. I get tired of losing to them every year so I'd love to be wrong in this case.

Our lone win against them was indeed a struggle, but offensively we did well against Bud. It ended up being a very close game because we let Tyrod Taylor march them down the field at will. Roof needs to throttle them this year and give our offense a chance.
 

Minawreck

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Top 25.

Win Coastal.

We've done it with a bad defense before, I think next year's will be passable, but I just think we're going to see immense improvement offensively. Vad + Sims was good for 1.5 TO/game. I think JT + Laskey/Custis will prove to be better than that.
 

wingsrlevel

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I think the t/o could increase a new QB and a freshman BB coming in. Hopefully it won't be at a time when it will cost us a game.
 

augustabuzz

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I think the t/o could increase a new QB and a freshman BB coming in. Hopefully it won't be at a time when it will cost us a game.
Actually, the level of experience at QB is similar to last year. So, if JT is more adept at running the offense, the TOs should decline compared to last year.
 
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