Article What to expect against Florida State: A closer look through the lens of data

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What to expect against Florida State: A closer look through the lens of data

FSU Head Coach Mike Norvell (photo: Tori Lynn Schneider/Tallahassee Democrat)

Predicting the first week of college football in 2020 is likely a fool’s errand. This is already a season unlike any other, and Bowl Championship Subdivision (BCS) teams have yet to lace ’em up and play a game.

Adding mystery to intrigue is Georgia Tech’s week 1 foe, Florida State. If you were to draw two random teams out of a hat with the goal of finding the biggest questions marks heading into the season, you’d likely do no better than the Jackets and Seminoles.

Georgia Tech’s unknowns are well documented. We have a coaching staff that has been together at the BCS level for three years. The first two at Temple provided a small lens into their likelihood to succeed at Georgia Tech, with Head Coach Geoff Collins going 7-6 and 8-4 in two consecutive seasons at the helm.

That short tenure, combined with a 3-9 start in year 1 at Georgia Tech following the transition from the under center spread option, has only widened the array of prognostications for future success. Jackets’ fans don’t need another prediction from yours truly to inform their opinion. They need real data in the form of wins and losses in 2020, as well as signs of measurable statistical improvement on the field and in the overall program, to be swayed.

If we counted the number of variables in play for Georgia Tech in week 1, we’d have enough talking points to fill the 3.5 hours of television for the talking heads. Now add in Florida State, a media favorite going through their own coaching transition, and the output is a national TV spot on ABC, September 12, 3:30pm ET.

Head Coach Mike Norvell’s transition from Memphis to Tallahassee has been, let’s just say, interesting. Mostly heralded as a great hire, his first offseason has garnered the type of attention that Florida State fans were hoping had passed. Despite the coaching changes from Jimbo Fisher to Willie Taggart to Mike Norvell, drama continues to infest the Florida State program. Norvell was accused publicly by his inherited players of lying to the media in June. Then, his players publicly alleged nontransparency and concerns around Covid-19 testing safety in August. Strike 1 and 2?

Norvell can quickly push those stories to back burner through success on the field in year 1. The challenge is, given Florida State’s on-field dysfunction in 2019 and a coaching transition in 2020, where do you set the bar?

An oft-cited data point to measure a coach’s ability is to look at their relative performance via strength-adjusted metrics. Football Outsiders has long provided this trove of information, so let’s peel back the onion on Norvell’s tenure at Memphis, which stretched from 2016-2019.

Ignoring year 1 as his own transition year there, here’s how Norvell’s Tigers performed in his final three years.

For the sake of brevity, I’m going to assume that Georgia Tech fans have a baseline understanding of FEI as it’s an oft-cited metric.

So what’s the takeaway? In Norvell’s final three years at Memphis, his teams performed admirably overall, finishing around 32 overall and in the top 25 on offense and special teams. FEI is strength-adjusted, essentially meaning you can’t inflate your ranking by beating up on patsies, and more credit is earned through your performance against top teams.

Florida State floundered last year by its historical standards, finishing with an overall FEI of 49. Especially poignant was their performance in the phases where Norvell has historically excelled, finishing with an FEI strength-adjusted ranking of Offense on 67 and Special Teams on 87. The defense finished at a respectable but far from elite, 39.

So we have a chance, right? Yes, absolutely. But if we’re being fair, we have a long road to hoe to match Florida State’s performance of last year.

Here’s how the Jackets fared last year, with Collins’ first two years as a FBS head coach thrown in for added context.

If you were to calculate an average in apples to apples fashion, I would have to discount 2017 (year 1 at Temple) and 2019 (year 1 at Georgia Tech) as I did with Norvell’s average at Memphis. That leaves 2018 as a barometer, and one-year averages don’t mean a whole lot.

So what do I make of the data? At a minimum, I’m comfortable concluding that Collins’ and Offensive Coordinator Dave Patenaude’s offense at Temple improved after a troubling first year. That first year was apparently a lot like last year’s painful experience for Tech fans, which yields a healthy dose of optimism for this year. Likewise, defense has rarely been a question mark for Collins, who fielded salty defenses as a coordinator before accentuating that as his strength in Philadelphia.

In the end, there are question marks everywhere for both teams. Ev. Er. Y. Where. And with Covid-19, we should probably expect the unexpected with respect to ongoing roster attrition even in week 1. Based on 2019 performance and data, Florida State has the head start. Based on familiarity with a new system and “team cohesion”, the edge goes to Georgia Tech.

Florida State, playing at home, rightfully has the edge publicly and via the eyes of Vegas (11.5 point favorites). But as 2020 has proven, anything can happen.

 
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Ibeeballin

Im a 3*
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GT fans & alums in here and y’all can count lol. Exactly how will defenses will put 8-9 in the proverbial “box” & defend our base 11 personnel?

If FSU think they can all out blitz us all game & man cover Brown, Camp, Carter with RBs & TEs then more power to them. Mathematically, this a death wish and not Madden we’re playing
 

dmel25

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
473
GT fans & alums in here and y’all can count lol. Exactly how will defenses will put 8-9 in the proverbial “box” & defend our base 11 personnel?

If FSU think they can all out blitz us all game & man cover Brown, Camp, Carter with RBs & TEs then more power to them. Mathematically, this a death wish and not Madden we’re playing
Yep, Brown will be having career stats and breaking records all game with his speed. He will have like 7 long TDs throughout the game. FSU would be smart not to stack the box.
 

Heisman's Ghost

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If we can complete 60% of our passes, I think we win. They will probably put 8-9 in the box and force us to pass. High expectations, I know.

Well, that is interesting but why would FSU with all that talent on the line but 8 or 9 in the box? The defensive line is supposedly loaded with talent and is the strength of their team. For sure, it is not their offensive line or the quarterback.
 

Heisman's Ghost

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this is huge for us, key of the game probably- establish the run

IF we can run on them, we can beat them but that is supposed to be a talented defensive line matched up against an offensive line that last year was one of the worst in the country. It will be a good measure to see if we have made progress. I want to beat them but would be sort of happy if we play well and come out with no injuries. If we can weather the early storm and get the game into the fourth quarter, we can beat them. Fall behind by more than two scores...its Katie bar the door.
 

Heisman's Ghost

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GT fans & alums in here and y’all can count lol. Exactly how will defenses will put 8-9 in the proverbial “box” & defend our base 11 personnel?

If FSU think they can all out blitz us all game & man cover Brown, Camp, Carter with RBs & TEs then more power to them. Mathematically, this a death wish and not Madden we’re playing
Whattaya mean count? I will have you know "ballin" I was a liberal arts major in college and the only time I can count is playing tennis. But to your assertion about blitzing, I don't see FSU blitzing that much unless they have to. They have been yapping all summer about their talent on the D line, well, the proof is in the pudding. If they are that great, you should not have to blitz.
 

CuseJacket

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I think most are saying FSU won't stack the box. Why would they? Rush as few as you need in order to create pressure. If your DL is as good as advertised, and you're playing what was the last ranked ACC OL last year, then they probably expect to get in the backfield and generate pressure with their front 3 or 4. Then they have numbers in the secondary. It's really pretty obvious and simple. They'll do that until we prove that they need to bring numbers.
 

boger2337

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GT fans & alums in here and y’all can count lol. Exactly how will defenses will put 8-9 in the proverbial “box” & defend our base 11 personnel?

If FSU think they can all out blitz us all game & man cover Brown, Camp, Carter with RBs & TEs then more power to them. Mathematically, this a death wish and not Madden we’re playing
I mean.. i think most of us question if the QB can get the ball go the receiver. They stack 8 in the box knowing our qb couldn't hit the broadside of a barn....
 

boger2337

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Yup.

Like I figured. No sideline reporters and minimal staff on sidelines for ACC ball

"In addition to the ACC MAG report, the ACC has significantly adjusted its 2020 Football Operations and Game Management protocols to eliminate all non-essential personnel from the sidelines and team auxiliary areas. Individuals that are deemed essential to have access to the sidelines will be required to meet specific and consistent health and safety standards as agreed upon by all 15 schools, including a temperature screening, symptom check, physical distancing and universal masking."
Rod
 

jacketup

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Oh no I get it. I don't think I have facepalmed more than with his play calling last year, it was like every time we had a great play call he would then call 3 bad ones.

Hey, dmel 25 should be our next Offensive Coordinator!!! He knows how to call plays that will consistently make up for a below average OL, no possession WR, and an inexperienced QB! Those plays he calls will also make up for blown assignments!! He must be making millions whereever he is currently the OC or HC!! We probably can't afford him.
 

dmel25

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
473
Hey, dmel 25 should be our next Offensive Coordinator!!! He knows how to call plays that will consistently make up for a below average OL, no possession WR, and an inexperienced QB! Those plays he calls will also make up for blown assignments!! He must be making millions whereever he is currently the OC or HC!! We probably can't afford him.
Patenaude that you?
 

Gtech50

Ramblin' Wreck
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517
I hope FSU tries to rush only 3 or 4 because I think our OL improvements will surprise everyone. We really only have 2 guys out of our top 7 that were part of last years struggling OL and you could argue those were our 2 best.
Quinney: returning
Defoor: returning
Minihan: mostly injured last year
Johnson: new
Williams: new
Clark: mostly injured last year
Cooper: mostly injured last year

That also gives you an idea of how injured we were (add Lee to that list as well). I don’t know many D1 teams that could have a serviceable OL with 4 of their top players injured most of the year. Not to mention the change in scheme, lack of size, etc. This year should be night and day.
 

Jerry the Jacket

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Our defense will have to win this game. We need to be attacking and opportunistic. They are weaker on offense and stronger on defense. We have not shown we can play offense with any consistency and our defense has shown flashes but still has not lived up to the Collins reputation for chaos. I'm hoping we will open up a can in Tallahassee.

Go Jackets!
 

slugboy

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Well, this is a swap from last year:


Now, we lead in returning production. Last year, we were near the bottom. Our numbers weren't great, but this should be a positive sign.

I'd like to pull SP+ or other forecasts, but SP+ doesn't come out until Tuesday:


I couldn't find F+ or FEI for 2020 (and considering that nothing has happened yet, that makes sense).

We have slightly more than zero information, but can we forecast this?


edit: formatting
 
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CuseJacket

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My hypothesis is that Week 1 will be sloppy in CFB. Whether that's due to new practice schedules, revised team protocols (e.g., less contact), or off-field distractions/priorities, there are a variety of reasons this season and especially week 1 may not match expectations when compared to other years, regardless of roster talent and coaching. It might also mean some teams inadvertently appear to "click" more than they otherwise will, whether that's due to random chance or an under-prepared opponent.

What does that mean for my week 1 expectations? I'm mentally prepared that anything can happen. And the results may not be indicative of future performance. I just hope we're the benefactors of the unpredictability.
 

orientalnc

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My hypothesis is that Week 1 will be sloppy in CFB. Whether that's due to new practice schedules, revised team protocols (e.g., less contact), or off-field distractions/priorities, there are a variety of reasons this season and especially week 1 may not match expectations when compared to other years, regardless of roster talent and coaching. It might also mean some teams inadvertently appear to "click" more than they otherwise will, whether that's due to random chance or an under-prepared opponent.

What does that mean for my week 1 expectations? I'm mentally prepared that anything can happen. And the results may not be indicative of future performance. I just hope we're the benefactors of the unpredictability.
I agree. The Austin Peay game thus weekend was very sloppy. We might benefit from having so many starters returning.
 
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