Article What to expect against Florida State: A closer look through the lens of data

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What to expect against Florida State: A closer look through the lens of data

FSU Head Coach Mike Norvell (photo: Tori Lynn Schneider/Tallahassee Democrat)

Predicting the first week of college football in 2020 is likely a fool’s errand. This is already a season unlike any other, and Bowl Championship Subdivision (BCS) teams have yet to lace ’em up and play a game.

Adding mystery to intrigue is Georgia Tech’s week 1 foe, Florida State. If you were to draw two random teams out of a hat with the goal of finding the biggest questions marks heading into the season, you’d likely do no better than the Jackets and Seminoles.

Georgia Tech’s unknowns are well documented. We have a coaching staff that has been together at the BCS level for three years. The first two at Temple provided a small lens into their likelihood to succeed at Georgia Tech, with Head Coach Geoff Collins going 7-6 and 8-4 in two consecutive seasons at the helm.

That short tenure, combined with a 3-9 start in year 1 at Georgia Tech following the transition from the under center spread option, has only widened the array of prognostications for future success. Jackets’ fans don’t need another prediction from yours truly to inform their opinion. They need real data in the form of wins and losses in 2020, as well as signs of measurable statistical improvement on the field and in the overall program, to be swayed.

If we counted the number of variables in play for Georgia Tech in week 1, we’d have enough talking points to fill the 3.5 hours of television for the talking heads. Now add in Florida State, a media favorite going through their own coaching transition, and the output is a national TV spot on ABC, September 12, 3:30pm ET.

Head Coach Mike Norvell’s transition from Memphis to Tallahassee has been, let’s just say, interesting. Mostly heralded as a great hire, his first offseason has garnered the type of attention that Florida State fans were hoping had passed. Despite the coaching changes from Jimbo Fisher to Willie Taggart to Mike Norvell, drama continues to infest the Florida State program. Norvell was accused publicly by his inherited players of lying to the media in June. Then, his players publicly alleged nontransparency and concerns around Covid-19 testing safety in August. Strike 1 and 2?

Norvell can quickly push those stories to back burner through success on the field in year 1. The challenge is, given Florida State’s on-field dysfunction in 2019 and a coaching transition in 2020, where do you set the bar?

An oft-cited data point to measure a coach’s ability is to look at their relative performance via strength-adjusted metrics. Football Outsiders has long provided this trove of information, so let’s peel back the onion on Norvell’s tenure at Memphis, which stretched from 2016-2019.

Ignoring year 1 as his own transition year there, here’s how Norvell’s Tigers performed in his final three years.

For the sake of brevity, I’m going to assume that Georgia Tech fans have a baseline understanding of FEI as it’s an oft-cited metric.

So what’s the takeaway? In Norvell’s final three years at Memphis, his teams performed admirably overall, finishing around 32 overall and in the top 25 on offense and special teams. FEI is strength-adjusted, essentially meaning you can’t inflate your ranking by beating up on patsies, and more credit is earned through your performance against top teams.

Florida State floundered last year by its historical standards, finishing with an overall FEI of 49. Especially poignant was their performance in the phases where Norvell has historically excelled, finishing with an FEI strength-adjusted ranking of Offense on 67 and Special Teams on 87. The defense finished at a respectable but far from elite, 39.

So we have a chance, right? Yes, absolutely. But if we’re being fair, we have a long road to hoe to match Florida State’s performance of last year.

Here’s how the Jackets fared last year, with Collins’ first two years as a FBS head coach thrown in for added context.

If you were to calculate an average in apples to apples fashion, I would have to discount 2017 (year 1 at Temple) and 2019 (year 1 at Georgia Tech) as I did with Norvell’s average at Memphis. That leaves 2018 as a barometer, and one-year averages don’t mean a whole lot.

So what do I make of the data? At a minimum, I’m comfortable concluding that Collins’ and Offensive Coordinator Dave Patenaude’s offense at Temple improved after a troubling first year. That first year was apparently a lot like last year’s painful experience for Tech fans, which yields a healthy dose of optimism for this year. Likewise, defense has rarely been a question mark for Collins, who fielded salty defenses as a coordinator before accentuating that as his strength in Philadelphia.

In the end, there are question marks everywhere for both teams. Ev. Er. Y. Where. And with Covid-19, we should probably expect the unexpected with respect to ongoing roster attrition even in week 1. Based on 2019 performance and data, Florida State has the head start. Based on familiarity with a new system and “team cohesion”, the edge goes to Georgia Tech.

Florida State, playing at home, rightfully has the edge publicly and via the eyes of Vegas (11.5 point favorites). But as 2020 has proven, anything can happen.

 
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CuseJacket

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There are many articles this offseason proclaiming the FSU D, and DT especially, to be among the best in the ACC this year.

Could that play into GT's QB decision?

On the other side of the ball? Both offensive lines were abysmal last year and have a lot to prove this year. Apparently that is especially true for GT's OL, given what we're facing week 1.

Feels good to say we are 2.5 weeks away from GT football!

College Football News Preview 2020: Florida State Seminoles
The good: ten starters are expected back on the FSU defense. The bad: they weren’t all that good. The secondary was torched for 277 yards per game and the D was 90th in the country in total yards allowed. However, it’s a talented group led by tackling-machine safety Hamsah Nasirildeen – with close to 200 stops over the last two seasons – and with All-ACC corner Asante Samuel back at one corner spot.

The defensive front has a force in DT Marvin Wilson to work around. He’s a next-level talent who needs to stay healthy, and he needs more pass rushing help around him. Cory Durden can get into the backfield from the other tackle spot, and Robert Cooper is a good one, but where’s the flash on the ends? Along with 260-pound Janarius Robinson on one end – the team’s leader in tackles for loss – Norvell’s defense will utilize a slew of undersized hybrid pass rushers to keep the pressure on.

The Draft Network: WHY FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES COULD HAVE ACC'S BEST DEFENSE
Defensive Line

Florida State is loaded with future NFL players and the defensive line is where most of it can be found. The headliner for the defensive line and unit overall is senior DT Marvin Wilson, who profiles as a likely first-round draft pick. His blend of power and quickness makes him a dynamic interior pass rusher that is also stout against the run. There are times where he is simply unblockable on tape.

Joining Wilson along the interior is junior DT Robert Cooper, who is extremely underrated. He’s a massive man with surprising quickness and he simply owns the line of scrimmage. The third man in the rotation at defensive tackle is Cory Durden, who was miscast playing frequently on the edge in 2019, Durden profiles best as a penetration-style player on the interior. He is powerful, explosive, and actually led the team in quarterback pressures last season with 47.

ESPN: FSU has three of the country's Top 10 defensive tackles
ESPN ranked the top defensive linemen in the country on Friday (Insider, full story here), and FSU placed three inside the Top 10...with Wilson coming in at No. 1:

“Wilson has produced elite PFF overall grades in each of the past two seasons, forming a two-year PFF grade that ranks third among all interior defensive linemen to play at least 700 snaps over that period. He has been stout against the run, but the best thing we saw from Wilson during his time on the field in 2019 was his pass rushing. His 90.9 pass-rush grade across his 291 pass-rush snaps was the second-best figure in college football last season, and he won on 16.8% of those reps, which tied for the fifth-highest rate. If he puts up a similar year in 2020, he'll probably be the first interior defensive lineman off the board in next year's draft.”
 

Adadu

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Still shocked we're even talking about playing. I'll believe it when I see it! Lol but I think it's good to start off with a brand team that has some good players but shows signs of struggling (plus the new staff they have) and some... let's say "internal dissonance." Big confidence booster for the players to think "We just beat FSU" even if they aren't too hot.
 

wesgt123

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I hope we take a big ole doodoo on their field. I hate FSU and anytime we beat them is SUHWEET. I’m hoping we can take advantage of them breaking in a new HC. And the talks of coaches doing the qb carousel worries me. But only this time we have better options in our carousel
 

Gtbowhunter90

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I hope we take a big ole doodoo on their field. I hate FSU and anytime we beat them is SUHWEET. I’m hoping we can take advantage of them breaking in a new HC. And the talks of coaches doing the qb carousel worries me. But only this time we have better options in our carousel
God, please no. Just stick with one damn QB.
 

Gt2019

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I could see some sets for just Jeff sims in a run option type thing on 3rd and shorts and goal line opportunities
 

Gtbowhunter90

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Agreed. I think we need to pick one and ride for the sake of the offense. But let's be honest Mason and Gibbs should be getting the majority of our yards if things go smoothly. At least they should be...
I agree, especially if our QB cant check down to his receivers. This was a big problem last year.
 

slugboy

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The one thing I don't like about the matchup is our offensive line against their defensive line. Hopefully, we've improved there.
 

MidtownJacket

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The one thing I don't like about the matchup is our offensive line against their defensive line. Hopefully, we've improved there.
Yeah we are going to have to see what we have up front now with a year into the transition and everyone healthy. Remember we had no depth and were dinged up most of the season last year. That SHOULD help with depth this year, but we need our top5 guys healthy.
 

Gtbowhunter90

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We have the experience on the line.. Last year was tough, but under year 2 of CBK I fully expect to see improvement on the line. Losing Cochran hurts, but it's gotta be next man up at RG. I'll be disappointed if the line continues to look like swiss cheese.

Edit: all the talk about 18 pounds gained per man and yadayada will mean squat if we get pushed over like bowling pins. Im still optimistic though
 

MidtownJacket

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We have the experience on the line.. Last year was tough, but under year 2 of CBK I fully expect to see improvement on the line. Losing Cochran hurts, but it's gotta be next man up at RG. I'll be disappointed if the line continues to look like swiss cheese.

Edit: all the talk about 18 pounds gained per man and yadayada will mean squat if we get pushed over like bowling pins. Im still optimistic though
Preach
 
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