1. Welcome to Georgia Tech Swarm! JOIN US and be a part of the SWARM! GO JACKETS! THWg!

What Do Y'all Think Will Happen When The GOP Keeps Control Of Congress After The November Elections?

Discussion in 'The Swarm Lounge' started by MikeJackets1967, Jun 8, 2018.

  1. bwelbo

    bwelbo Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    16,371
    I don’t have any expertise or background to answer that with anything other than gut feel. If I had to speculate, I’d say + or -5...in other words they could have a slim majority or a slim minority.
     
  2. Technut1990

    Technut1990 Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    2,143

    There may indeed be a blue wave, I dont know, but as far as long held/traditional seats go I think it's important to look at population changes and voting patterns. If Ohio District 12 looked like it did 20 years ago then last night should be very frustrating for Conservatives but if there has been a population shift or a shift in voting patterns over the years then its a different scenario. In 2012 it was 50% women and 87% white (non Hispanic). 2010 it was 89% white. I can tell you that APPROX 28,000 more votes were cast in Franklin Co (Columbus area) than the next highest county, Deleware. O'Connor won Franklin County with 65% of the vote. Looking at results seem to indicate that democrats were more enthused than conservatives but time will tell.
     
  3. bwelbo

    bwelbo Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    16,371
    It’s also hard to get an apples to apples, as district shapes change. Obama won Ohio-12 by 6 points.
     
    Technut1990 likes this.
  4. Technut1990

    Technut1990 Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    2,143
    a fact not often mentioned by our traitorous media, another example of ginning up the truth. If O'Connor won it would have been repeatedly reported that this was the most republican district in the history of Ohio, regardless of it going to Obama
     
  5. WreckinGT

    WreckinGT Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    3,192
    How did the Republican house candidate do that year in Ohio 12?
     
  6. bwelbo

    bwelbo Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    16,371
    Obama won by 6 points. The Republican was a several term incumbent who ran essentially unopposed. A token Democrat ran, but only raised $8,000 (!) and only got 14,000 votes in the primary. He was barely 30 years old and was the sole proprietor of a 1 man law firm. It was basically an empty ballot against the Republican.

    This year the Democrats ran a real person who railed against government spending and had many other similar logical kitchen table economics positions.
     
    AE 87 likes this.
  7. AE 87

    AE 87 Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    13,571
    It was also a special election where the Dem held a significant lead a few weeks ago.

    It would be hard to take away any msg with confidence from this election.

    Beyond oh12, I'm less confident that the GOP holds the House. I think the Congress needs to do another something to show their value before 11/6.
     
  8. bwelbo

    bwelbo Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    16,371
    Right. I don't think the country has become more left or more right - I think the right has less enthusiasm and Democrats will win the voter turnout fight and flip a couple dozen seats. What have Republicans in Congress done - they ran on illegal immigration reform, repealing the ACA, reducing the deficit - and they have delivered close to zero. They did pass a tax cut package...the corporate tax rate cut to 21% was a big deal that will have great positive ramifications for a long time. The individual tax cuts were nice, but turned into a big bowl of spaghetti by the time it was done. But that's really about all they can hang their hat on. Most of the positive stuff that's been done has been done by Trump in spite of a do-nothing Congress.
     
  9. grandpa jacket

    grandpa jacket Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    690
    Dems win 28 seats and take over the house
     
  10. bwelbo

    bwelbo Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    16,371
    In Ohio-12, 2 "mistakes" have now cut the Republican's lead down to just 91 votes. Forget Russia, just think about how silly the notion is that counting errors and missing ballots being uncovered can happen in this day and age.

    Reminds me of the day after the 2016 Presidential election. Hillary Clinton had 64.6 million votes and Donald Trump had 62.4 million votes - source: https://www.npr.org/2016/11/09/500716650/donald-trump-clinches-the-presidency-in-major-upset

    Yet look up what the official vote count totals are:
    https://www.270towin.com/2016_Election/
    Hillary Clinton got 65.8 million votes and Donald Trump got 62.9 million votes. In the ensuing weeks following the election, 1.2 million additional votes for Clinton were counted and 0.5 million additional votes for Trump were counted. As a reminder, early voting and absentee ballots are tabulated as they arrive.
     
  11. Jophish17

    Jophish17 Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    349
  12. bwelbo

    bwelbo Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    16,371
    Some random polls:
    * Trump's approval is twice as high as Congress' approval LOL
    * Wisconsin Senate Democrat incumbent Baldwin up 2 pts. (That would be a seat flipped.)
    * Florida Senate Democrat incumbent Nelson down by 6 pts. (That would be a seat flipped.)
    * New Jersey long time Democrat incumbent Memendez up by 6 pts.
    * Minnesota Senate Democrat up by 4 pts.
    * Texas Senate Republican incumbent Cruz only up by 4 pts.
    * Tennessee Senate Republican up by 4 pts.
    * Nevada Senate Republican incumbent up by 1 pt. (That would be a seat flipped.)
    * Missouri Senate Democrat incumbent down by 1 pt. (That would be a seat flipped.)
    * Montana Senate Democrat incumbent up by 3 pts.
    * North Dakota Senate Democrat incumbent down by 4 pts. (That would be a seat flipped.)

    If these polls stuck, Democrats would lose Senate seats in Florida, Missouri, and North Dakota. That would stretch the Republicans' Senate majority to 54-46.

    A Democrat majority in the House, a Republican majority in the Senate, and Trump in the White House. Something tells me the federal governments' ongoing fecal explosion will accelerate.
     
  13. Technut1990

    Technut1990 Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    2,143

    more gridlock !
     
  14. MWBATL

    MWBATL Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    5,199
    On everything except spending. It is the only thing that both parties can agree to do.
     
    MountainBuzzMan and bwelbo like this.
  15. bwelbo

    bwelbo Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    16,371
    The guy who just won the Democrat primary for governor in Florida is for fully government run healthcare for all, a living wage for all, and the rest of the Bernie Sanders-endorsed socialism platform. Anybody who doubts that approximately half our country is the antithesis of the other need to look no further than these signs. Incredible what we are becoming. We really do need to figure out if we should split into 2 countries - how do you survive when one half is the political polar opposite of the other?
     
  16. AE 87

    AE 87 Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    13,571
    Gillum won with a third of the Democrat vote against 6 other candidates. Now, if the actual election is close, then that would be bad.
     
  17. bwelbo

    bwelbo Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    16,371
    Yea I neglected to point out that is option 2 - he gets blown out. Florida’s more moderate incumbent Senator is down in the polls too.
     

Share This Page