Week 9 GT v FSU Preview thread (no media)

[slugboy]

Let’s look at some individual stats and get the wrong idea first. The records are about the same (4-3 for FSU vs 3-4 for us). We both have a good win or two, with FSU having a really good win against LSU. FSU has lost 3 in a row, but they’ve had a bye week to rest up for us.

Here are a few stat leaders:

Player	Pos
Jordan Travis	QB	122/198 1661 yards 11 TD 3 Int
Treshaun Ward	RB	72 att 488 yds 3 TD
Johnny Wilson	WR	27 rec 492 yds 3 TD
Jared Verse	DE	4 sacks 23 tackles 8 tfl
Omarion Cooper	DB	1 int 0 yds 0 TD
Full 2022 Stats

And for GT:

Player	Pos
Jeff Sims	QB	110/188 1115 yards 5 TD 3 Int
Hassan Hall	RB	73 att 372 yds 0 TD
Nate McCollum	WR	34 rec 345 yds 1 TD
Keion White	DL	4 sacks 33 tackles 7 tfl
Charlie Thomas	LB	2 int 28 yds 0 TD
Full 2022 Stats

So, the difference between Jeff Sims and Jordan Travis is 500 yards and 6 TDs. The 6 TDs are a bigger deal to me—we ain’t scoring, and Sims also isn’t likely to be in. Those yards are a big deal though.

At running back, the numbers are better, but Ward has 3 TDs to Hall’s 0.
Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 10/27/2022.

That’s not really the story though. Their offense is about as good as Mississippi State’s. Ours is about as bad as Iowa’s.

Rk​	Team	Rec​	FBS​	OFEI​
26​	Florida State​	4-3​	3-3​	.67​
107​	Georgia Tech​	3-4​	2-4​	-.60​

Our offense doesn’t go against their offense, but in a boat race, we’d be falling behind even with Sims. We have to hope that Gibson or Pyron balls out.

 

[85Escape]

Ugh. Before the loss to UVA I was able to rationalize our poor offensive performance by thinking that two of our losses were to top 10ish teams. Now however, there is nothing to hide behind. Our offense is simply anemic.

 

[slugboy]

Here are the defensive FEI stats. Florida State’s defense is about as good as our defense. They get to go up against the #107 offense in the country, while we go up against the #26 offense in the country.
We are GREAT at turnovers, so that’s one thing to look forward to. Somehow, we need to get into their backfield and mess things up, unlike last week.

Rk​

Team

Rec​

FBS​

DFEI​

DDE​

Rk​

DPD​

Rk​

DAY​

Rk​

DPP​

Rk​

DTD​

Rk​

DVD​

Rk​

DFD​

Rk​

DBD​

Rk​

DTO​

Rk​

46​

Georgia Tech​

3-4​

2-4​

.19​

.19​

46​

2.01​

47​

.484​

73​

5.52​

49​

.232​

41​

.319​

42​

.725​

80​

.116​

75​

.159​

15​

53​

Florida State​

4-3​

3-3​

.13​

-.20​

78​

2.34​

73​

.469​

63​

5.12​

23​

.274​

66​

.371​

67​

.710​

71​

.113​

80​

.097​

90​

The key to the game is simple, but really hard. Our OL has to play one of their better games of the year, and we have to be even or win against FSU’s DL. We’re pretty even everywhere else.

On the other hand, our defense needs to play a better game than we did last week—no 40+ yard TDs.

(These two posts are about 20 minutes of me pulling things together. It’s not a long drawn-out analysis).

 

[slugboy]

Here’s the FSU-Clemson highlights. We played Clemson under TFG, but their defense looks pretty good and their offense looks polished. Their QB Travis jukes a Clemson defender out of his jock for a TD early on in the highlights.

Rough estimate—this is not as hard as beating Clemson, but harder than beating Pitt, especially on the road.



FSU is more vulnerable to the pass than to the run.

If we pull off an upset, the coaches and players deserve a huge amount of credit. This is a big challenge.
Also, remember that in 2017, Jimbo Fisher had left FSU’s OL in shambles. It didn’t get much better under Taggart. The last year or two, their OL looks good and they seem to be turning the corner. They aren’t top 25 yet, but they’re a good team

			Over	Over	Over	Conf	Conf	Conf	SRS	SRS	Poll	Poll	Poll
Rk	Year	Conf	W	L	Pct	W	L	Pct	SRS	SOS	AP Pre	AP High	AP Post	Coach(es)	Bowl	Notes
1	2022	ACC	4	3	.571	2	3	.400	12.30	6.87		23		Mike Norvell (4-3)
2	2021	ACC	5	7	.417	4	4	.500	0.64	2.22				Mike Norvell (5-7)
3	2020	ACC	3	6	.333	2	6	.250	-8.87	-1.54				Mike Norvell (3-6)
4	2019	ACC	6	7	.462	4	4	.500	1.78	2.32				Willie Taggart (4-5) Odell Haggins (2-2)	Sun Bowl-L
5	2018	ACC	5	7	.417	3	5	.375	-1.67	4.92	19	19		Willie Taggart (5-7)
6	2017	ACC	7	6	.538	3	5	.375	8.07	5.76	3	3		Jimbo Fisher (5-6) Odell Haggins (2-0)	Independence Bowl-W
7	2016	ACC	10	3	.769	5	3	.625	15.01	6.16	4	2	8	Jimbo Fisher (10-3)	Orange Bowl-W

Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 10/27/2022.