Ukraine

orientalnc

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The Ukrainians will never agree to this. They have the Russians on the run and won't believe any commitment Putin's negotiators will make. They want to push them back to the original borders of the country and they are planning to do it by summer of next year, provided we send along the ammo. And we will. The Lend-Lease bill gives the president a tool to use US stockpiles to replenish the UA and we have gigantic amounts of equipment, as do some of the NATO allies.

Once the fronts stabilize the Ukrainians might come to the table. Thye've already said they would accept the results of UN supervised referenda in Lukansk, Donetsk, and Crimea. That would mean they lose Crimea, probably. They'll live with that and EU/NATO membership, I think. But neither side will negotiate while results on the battlefield aren't close to final. As many have said, wars are easy to start and hard to end. As the Russians are finding out.
I agree with this. Two things the Ukrainians are not likely to concede is the repatriation of UKR citizens moved into Russia and the return to the borders before Russian annexed Crimea. I think the the cost of rebuilding Ukraine is something to negotiate. Same with the War crimes investigations.
 

bobongo

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The Ukrainians will never agree to this and we won't force them to. They have the Russians on the run and won't believe any commitment Putin's negotiators will make. They want to push them back to the original borders of the country and they are planning to do it by summer of next year, provided we send along the ammo. And we will. The Lend-Lease bill gives the president a tool to use US stockpiles to replenish the UA and we have gigantic amounts of equipment, as do some of the NATO allies. This is a matter of reseting the post WW2 stability of Europe and the US has a vital national interest in doing just that. This is a dicey situation given that the RF is a nuclear power, but there isn't much choice if we want to get back to an ante bellum situation. Imho, we are lucky in that our president ran the Foreign Relations Committee during the Cold War; fits this situation quite well.

Once the fronts stabilize the Ukrainians might come to the table. They've already said they would accept the results of UN supervised referenda in Lukansk, Donetsk, and Crimea. That would mean they lose Crimea, probably. They'll live with that and EU/NATO membership, I think. But neither side will negotiate while results on the battlefield aren't close to final. As many have said, wars are easy to start and hard to end. As the Russians are finding out.
I wonder if there will be a stronger move toward negotiation as winter sets in and the lines further stabilize. The proper solution is for Russia to give all illegally seized territories back including Crimea, go home, and leave those people alone (and rebuild their country and submit to war crimes tribunals). But to continue the war to remove them forcibly entails the very strong prospect of them causing one or more nuclear meltdowns which could destroy a large swath of Ukraine, use a dirty bomb, or tactical nukes, or possibly chemical or biological weapons. They're not above using any of those. The Ukrainians have to take that into consideration. But you may well be right that Ukraine won't agree to anything less than Russian withdrawal from all parts of Ukraine. I don't know. I think it's likely the U.S. and the west starts to lean on them more and more to negotiate with the lying Russian fascist as time goes on. The situation is indeed "dicey".
 

MountainBuzzMan

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I wonder if there will be a stronger move toward negotiation as winter sets in and the lines further stabilize. The proper solution is for Russia to give all illegally seized territories back including Crimea, go home, and leave those people alone (and rebuild their country and submit to war crimes tribunals). But to continue the war to remove them forcibly entails the very strong prospect of them causing one or more nuclear meltdowns which could destroy a large swath of Ukraine, use a dirty bomb, or tactical nukes, or possibly chemical or biological weapons. They're not above using any of those. The Ukrainians have to take that into consideration. But you may well be right that Ukraine won't agree to anything less than Russian withdrawal from all parts of Ukraine. I don't know. I think it's likely the U.S. and the west starts to lean on them more and more to negotiate with the lying Russian fascist as time goes on. The situation is indeed "dicey".
This is the hard time. Once winter time hits and all the mud freezes then we will probably see a significant uptick in mechanized attacks by Ukraine. Russian will lose so many people due to weather and attacks. Ukraine solders will be properly attired for winter. Russian gains will continue to be rolled back throughout all of winter
 

bobongo

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This is the hard time. Once winter time hits and all the mud freezes then we will probably see a significant uptick in mechanized attacks by Ukraine. Russian will lose so many people due to weather and attacks. Ukraine solders will be properly attired for winter. Russian gains will continue to be rolled back throughout all of winter
Good point. I have no doubt Ukraine can push Russia all the way to the border conventionally. Conventionally, Russia is a paper tiger. Running out of missiles, which they've used to attack their civilian population, running out of men willing to fight. Running out of everything.

But now they're running out of patience, and it's the other stuff they might pull that is worrisome because the other thing Putin lacks is basic humanity. Russian humiliation could go either of two ways. They could double down with WMDs, or they could axe Putin and bargain. Ukraine and the west hope for the latter.
 

MountainBuzzMan

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Good point. I have no doubt Ukraine can push Russia all the way to the border conventionally. Conventionally, Russia is a paper tiger. Running out of missiles, which they've used to attack their civilian population, running out of men willing to fight. Running out of everything.

But now they're running out of patience, and it's the other stuff they might pull that is worrisome because the other thing Putin lacks is basic humanity. Russian humiliation could go either of two ways. They could double down with WMDs, or they could axe Putin and bargain. Ukraine and the west hope for the latter.
There has been a significant swing in public opinion from Russian citizens wanting to start negotiating and end this thing. It will only continue with the continued setbacks they keep having and the ramped up body bags of the mobilized russians. Most of the current deaths over the last 2-4 weeks are all mobilized not professional solders. There has been more tollerence for deaths among those solders who volunteered instead of the ones that are being ripped out of their homes and dragged off the street and sent to the front lines to die as cannon fodder.
 

bobongo

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There has been a significant swing in public opinion from Russian citizens wanting to start negotiating and end this thing. It will only continue with the continued setbacks they keep having and the ramped up body bags of the mobilized russians. Most of the current deaths over the last 2-4 weeks are all mobilized not professional solders. There has been more tollerence for deaths among those solders who volunteered instead of the ones that are being ripped out of their homes and dragged off the street and sent to the front lines to die as cannon fodder.
I just saw where the withdrawal from Kherson was announced on Russian TV by the military brass. This is unusual. Previous withdrawals were done without any official announcement from the top. It was speculated that perhaps Putin is preparing the populace for an announcement down the road of a general withdrawal from Ukraine. I doubt it, but who knows? Or maybe Putin is starting to lose his grip on power. Lordy, they've had upwards of 100,000 casualties. How many can they sustain in an elective war against their own brethren? Stay tuned...
 

MountainBuzzMan

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I just saw where the withdrawal from Kherson was announced on Russian TV by the military brass. This is unusual. Previous withdrawals were done without any official announcement from the top. It was speculated that perhaps Putin is preparing the populace for an announcement down the road of a general withdrawal from Ukraine. I doubt it, but who knows? Or maybe Putin is starting to lose his grip on power. Lordy, they've had upwards of 100,000 casualties. How many can they sustain in an elective war against their own brethren? Stay tuned...
I think they have well over 100,000 casualties and the death rate is probably well over 50,000. Proable getting close to 200,000 casualities due to all the self inflicted issues with friendly fire and accidents and there is a lot of sickness going around. There was a russian report of one battle have over 50% of the causalities were friendly fire. Due to the wagner group not talking to the normal russian militiary and they both kicked off a counter attact at the same time and ended up fighting each other.. That and they dont have night vision capabilities and attack a retreating reconnaissance in force mission and shoot their own
 

bobongo

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I think they have well over 100,000 casualties and the death rate is probably well over 50,000. Proable getting close to 200,000 casualities due to all the self inflicted issues with friendly fire and accidents and there is a lot of sickness going around. There was a russian report of one battle have over 50% of the causalities were friendly fire. Due to the wagner group not talking to the normal russian militiary and they both kicked off a counter attact at the same time and ended up fighting each other.. That and they dont have night vision capabilities and attack a retreating reconnaissance in force mission and shoot their own
What a bunch of rag bags. I though as much when I was stationed in Berlin back in the '80s. They were always overhyped as a fighting force. If there were any justice, Putin would be drawn and quartered for sending those guys and all the Ukrainian soldiers and the 40,000 civilians he's murdered to their deaths. One of the most horrible, useless, and stupid wars ever fought. I can't imagine how that idiot is staying in power.
 

takethepoints

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Looks like the Kherson "withdrawal" is turning out to be a trap:

The first thing the UA will do once the celebrations die down is a complete ID check of the population. Like most of Europe, Ukraine is very much a "Papier, bitte" place; i.e. if your papers aren't in order - and every citizen has to carry them or have them shortly available - you get detained and in some cases arrested on the spot. Further, some of the units that took Kherson are former police officers there; it isn't as if the ground will be unfamiliar to the people checking papers. I don't expect the Russians who put on mufti to survive for long.

Btw, goto:

https://ecfr.eu/article/how-to-defeat-russia-and-prevent-nuclear-armageddon-with-one-weird-trick/

This is a very astute article about how the Russians use nuclear threats and how to counter them. If they decide to use nukes they will be tactical and will have little effect on the battlefield. One thing the article misses is that Soviet era equipment was all designed for a nuclear battlefield; everything on both sides is already set up to take on nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons. (Fun fact: the reason the soldiers ride on the top of BRM and BTR apcs is that their designers thought they would be fighting in an environment where anti-armor weapons would be impossible to operate. So they didn't proof them against either ATGMs or even heavy machine guns. The Russians call the BRM a "moving coffin".) The main thing is that the results of nuclear use would be almost complete isolation of the RF (there's still North Korea!) and all the brakes off on western military aid. This is definitely not what the RF wants.
 

takethepoints

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Another good piece, htis time on how Ukraine prepared for the invasion and why its choices worked so well. See:

https://ecfr.eu/publication/defend-resist-repeat-ukraines-lessons-for-european-defence/

Or, to put it simply, get the sergeants and corporals up to NATO standards and be sure to keep the civilians in the loop for regional defense. The UA territorial defense brigades have been absolutely indispensable for defending the country. Their work enabled the UA to train the flood of volunteers that made the UA so formidable today. The RF forces are now badly outnumbered by forces with roughly equal equipment, better training, and much better logistics. This explains the results. God's on the side with the big battalions.
 

bobongo

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https://ecfr.eu/article/how-to-defeat-russia-and-prevent-nuclear-armageddon-with-one-weird-trick/

This is a very astute article about how the Russians use nuclear threats and how to counter them. If they decide to use nukes they will be tactical and will have little effect on the battlefield.
A very good article - thanks for posting it. There's a danger in ignoring nuclear blackmail, and a danger in acceding to it.
The article acknowledges both sides of the coin, even as he suggests that it's (probably) a bluff.
As the author points out, the use of nukes is irrational and in no one's best interest, but there's no guarantee that a rational path will be followed by Russia.
 

Augusta_Jacket

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The key numbers to look at are the casualty count and the lost equipment count.

First, if the 100,000 count is true for casualties, the the active prewar Russian Army has effectively been decimated. If that number approaches 20% by the spring then UA should be able to consolidate it's gains and push the RF back to the border.

However, the casualty count is likely due to early war losses on the RFs side, as they did not have sufficient superiority when attacking. If the casualty counts stabilize for the RF, they could make this a long winter for the UA, as the UA needs more manpower to sustain an attacking posture. The conventional rule is that you need a 3:1 manpower advantage when attacking. (Assuming even army capabilities) With western help, UA probably only needs a 2:1 advantage.

The other number is the lost equipment. Numbers I have seen are varied and unreliable, but the consensus is that the RF has lost between 25%-50% of its prewar active armor capability. Without the means to replace these with modern equipment, they are relying on mothballed equipment stockpiles and replacing their losses with less capable units. Similarly, their manpower replacements are not up to par with what they are losing.

Finally, Russia is likely to start having to address other areas of trouble within its empire soon. There is the very real possibility that some of their satellites will pursue independence soon as well. The mobilization hit the minority oblasts particularly and disproportionately hard. If Ukraine continues to show that the RF army is beatable, then it's entirely possible one of these former SSRs might choose to attempt a breakaway soon.
 

bobongo

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Another indication both sides are in the initial stages of edging toward the table:


It's not the peace plan I envisioned. Zelensky is taking outright NATO membership off the table:

From the article:
Referring to NATO membership, Zelensky said through an interpreter that he does not want to be president of a "country which is begging something on its knees."
 

MountainBuzzMan

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The key numbers to look at are the casualty count and the lost equipment count.

First, if the 100,000 count is true for casualties, the the active prewar Russian Army has effectively been decimated. If that number approaches 20% by the spring then UA should be able to consolidate it's gains and push the RF back to the border.

However, the casualty count is likely due to early war losses on the RFs side, as they did not have sufficient superiority when attacking. If the casualty counts stabilize for the RF, they could make this a long winter for the UA, as the UA needs more manpower to sustain an attacking posture. The conventional rule is that you need a 3:1 manpower advantage when attacking. (Assuming even army capabilities) With western help, UA probably only needs a 2:1 advantage.

The other number is the lost equipment. Numbers I have seen are varied and unreliable, but the consensus is that the RF has lost between 25%-50% of its prewar active armor capability. Without the means to replace these with modern equipment, they are relying on mothballed equipment stockpiles and replacing their losses with less capable units. Similarly, their manpower replacements are not up to par with what they are losing.

Finally, Russia is likely to start having to address other areas of trouble within its empire soon. There is the very real possibility that some of their satellites will pursue independence soon as well. The mobilization hit the minority oblasts particularly and disproportionately hard. If Ukraine continues to show that the RF army is beatable, then it's entirely possible one of these former SSRs might choose to attempt a breakaway soon.
There are starting to see significant numbers of T62's being destroyed and captured by Ukraine. Include the standard T62 not including all the T62Ms.

Basically the T62 is a tank built in the 1960's. The T62M is the same tank that has been upgrade to the "modern" Soviet standards of the early 1980's. Russian has lost the vast majority of their modern tanks. To put this into context there are clear and visually counted by video of third party people who have counted almost 1,500 Russian tanks destroyed of all makes. The ones that have not been seen probably pushes this number well over 2,000 in Russian controlled territory

Russian Equipment losses

What is really Funny is that Ukraine has captured over 500 Russian tanks. This makes Russia the largest supplier of military equipment for Ukraine out of all the countries trying to help Ukraine.
 

tmhunter52

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At first, I thought this might be a thread discussing some 2023 football recruit. Maybe another kicker? LOL! But, hey, since it has nothing to do with GT or GT sports, is this the place we can start threads on the roughly other 26 armed conflicts going on around the world?
 

MountainBuzzMan

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At first, I thought this might be a thread discussing some 2023 football recruit. Maybe another kicker? LOL! But, hey, since it has nothing to do with GT or GT sports, is this the place we can start threads on the roughly other 26 armed conflicts going on around the world?
Feel free to start a new thread on any conflict of your choice. there is a LOT of stuff happening in Iran right now
 

Augusta_Jacket

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There are starting to see significant numbers of T62's being destroyed and captured by Ukraine. Include the standard T62 not including all the T62Ms.

Basically the T62 is a tank built in the 1960's. The T62M is the same tank that has been upgrade to the "modern" Soviet standards of the early 1980's. Russian has lost the vast majority of their modern tanks. To put this into context there are clear and visually counted by video of third party people who have counted almost 1,500 Russian tanks destroyed of all makes. The ones that have not been seen probably pushes this number well over 2,000 in Russian controlled territory

Russian Equipment losses

What is really Funny is that Ukraine has captured over 500 Russian tanks. This makes Russia the largest supplier of military equipment for Ukraine out of all the countries trying to help Ukraine.

The other telling factor is that Russia has not been able to effectively gain air superiority over an outmanned (on paper at least) opponent. I need to look again at the aircraft data out there but I seem to recall that Russian combat sorties were limited in range in scope after the first couple of weeks of the war.
 
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