Ukraine

wrmathis

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
573
Location
Yelm Washington
How is Gen Phillip Breedlove associated with Tech? Watching fox news when they interviewed him. He had the old gold tech helmet and navy gt cap in the background.
"General Breedlove was raised in Forest Park, Ga., and was commissioned in 1977 as a distinguished graduate of Georgia Tech's ROTC program."

 

ScGold

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
492
"General Breedlove was raised in Forest Park, Ga., and was commissioned in 1977 as a distinguished graduate of Georgia Tech's ROTC program."

Thank you
 

LongforDodd

LatinxBreakfastTacos
Messages
2,375
Meanwhile while the majority of the world is fixated on Russia & Ukraine, we've got China bolstering their position in Central Asia right under our noses.

aren't those "stans" full of oil and perhaps other minerals needed by developed worlds for important stuff?
 

GT33

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
503
aren't those "stans" full of oil and perhaps other minerals needed by developed worlds for important stuff?
Kazakhstan has 15% of the world's uranium, 3% of its oil and 4% coal. It also has a lot of uranium, chromium, cadmium, silver, selenium & about 7% of the world's rhenium.

Turkmenistan has 5% of the world's natural gas.

Uzbekistan has a lot of gas (not sure of the %), but also has sizable copper, silver, gold and uranium.

Kyrgystan has a lot of mercury and natural gas.

Tajikistan produces a lot of antimony.

This is a little dated, but a decent reference.

 

LongforDodd

LatinxBreakfastTacos
Messages
2,375
Thanks for that info.

I thought hitler made a play for that part of the world to get his hands on the oil in the ground there. Maybe I’m thinking of some other place
 

GT33

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
503
Thanks for that info.

I thought hitler made a play for that part of the world to get his hands on the oil in the ground there. Maybe I’m thinking of some other place
Hitler went into the transcaucasus for his oil after Japan attcked Pearl Harbor, a couple years before D Day. That's the area north of Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan, etc. You got the Caspian Sea to the east and the Black Sea to the west. The "stans" are further to the east, wedged in between Russia, Iran, India and China for the most part. He did get oil from Romania, Hungary and Poland, plus France once he occupied them, also Russia.

Yeah the history is not much different today. We just do a bad job of learning from history.
 

LongforDodd

LatinxBreakfastTacos
Messages
2,375
Hitler went into the transcaucasus for his oil after Japan attcked Pearl Harbor, a couple years before D Day. That's the area north of Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan, etc. You got the Caspian Sea to the east and the Black Sea to the west. The "stans" are further to the east, wedged in between Russia, Iran, India and China for the most part. He did get oil from Romania, Hungary and Poland, plus France once he occupied them, also Russia.

Yeah the history is not much different today. We just do a bad job of learning from history.
I guess those WWII maps I remember seeing years ago had those oil well symbols in the Romania/Hungary region, eh, and not in the "Stans".
 

GT33

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
503
I guess those WWII maps I remember seeing years ago had those oil well symbols in the Romania/Hungary region, eh, and not in the "Stans".
I’m an armchair QB. Khazakhstan has an enormous oil reserve. Not sure when it was discovered.
 

bobongo

Helluva Engineer
Messages
5,056

I believe the west has brought about the situation it wanted, at least for now. The west is trying to balance the need to stop the Russians and the desire to avoid a nuclear conflict. To that end, the aim has been equilibrium. NATO leadership wants to stop Russia and also degrade and deplete their forces, which has been achieved with the HIMARS. The most Ukraine can do now is advance somewhat, but their advance will be limited by the fact that we've restrained them from firing into Russia, and by the fact they're still outmanned somewhat and to a degree outgunned offensively. The HIMARS are the equalizer. If they advance far enough, the Russians will keep their ammunition depots just inside their border and the Ukrainian advance would end at some point west of there. Stalemate. And my guess is that Ukraine has been told that our support is tied to their restraint. The hope is that at that point the Russians will decide to negotiate earnestly and come to an agreement with Kiev whereby they keep a part of eastern Ukraine, the Russians go home, and the war ends.

The Russians are going to soon come to a crossroads, if they haven't already. Will they try to press by making cannon fodder out of new recruits? There's very little chance of that working and could backfire by provoking domestic opposition. Will they resort to chemical weapons? Or will they stop in hopes of settling for a chunk of eastern Ukraine? No one knows the answers to these questions because no one knows how deluded and megalomaniacal Putin is, how long he'll last, or how far off the deep end he could go before he's deposed. But conventionally, he and his henchmen are just about done taking Ukrainian territory and may start to lose some of it.

Once again, this is what I think is the west's strategy and what I think is going on. I don't know whether it's right, but I certainly do see the rationale behind it.
 

MountainBuzzMan

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,240
Location
South Forsyth

I believe the west has brought about the situation it wanted, at least for now. The west is trying to balance the need to stop the Russians and the desire to avoid a nuclear conflict. To that end, the aim has been equilibrium. NATO leadership wants to stop Russia and also degrade and deplete their forces, which has been achieved with the HIMARS. The most Ukraine can do now is advance somewhat, but their advance will be limited by the fact that we've restrained them from firing into Russia, and by the fact they're still outmanned somewhat and to a degree outgunned offensively. The HIMARS are the equalizer. If they advance far enough, the Russians will keep their ammunition depots just inside their border and the Ukrainian advance would end at some point west of there. Stalemate. And my guess is that Ukraine has been told that our support is tied to their restraint. The hope is that at that point the Russians will decide to negotiate earnestly and come to an agreement with Kiev whereby they keep a part of eastern Ukraine, the Russians go home, and the war ends.

The Russians are going to soon come to a crossroads, if they haven't already. Will they try to press by making cannon fodder out of new recruits? There's very little chance of that working and could backfire by provoking domestic opposition. Will they resort to chemical weapons? Or will they stop in hopes of settling for a chunk of eastern Ukraine? No one knows the answers to these questions because no one knows how deluded and megalomaniacal Putin is, how long he'll last, or how far off the deep end he could go before he's deposed. But conventionally, he and his henchmen are just about done taking Ukrainian territory and may start to lose some of it.

Once again, this is what I think is the west's strategy and what I think is going on. I don't know whether it's right, but I certainly do see the rationale behind it.
Ignoring the Ukraine numbers for Russian losses. The US believes there are at least 75,000 killed and wounded on the Russian side. Thats over half of what they started the war with invading Ukraine. That alone is getting back to families all over the country. Throw in the fact that the Russian casualty and equipment lost is continuing unabated is causing so many secondary issues.
  • A generation of lost military officer training and modern skillset
  • A long term destruction of their economy
  • Huge brain drain for those highly educated and can write software in some other county besides Russia
  • They will be a cancer most of the world will ignore for decades to come
  • Even their military equipment is now considered subpar so they wont be able to sell nearly as much as before. (Many countries have allready canceled large orders)

This is turning into a complete and total destruction of the Russia that could have emerged from the Soviet Collapse. They are basically Demilitarizing themselves, and destroying their already weak economic strength for decades to come.
 

LongforDodd

LatinxBreakfastTacos
Messages
2,375
Let's hope the Russian people help put an end to this thing quickly...with the help of these HIMARS. I'm leaning towards this being a mostly Euro problem, I'm tired of everybody expecting us to do their dirty work, and I'm losing sympathy for Zelensky, bigly. I feel tremendously though for the everyday Uke.
 

bobongo

Helluva Engineer
Messages
5,056
Ignoring the Ukraine numbers for Russian losses. The US believes there are at least 75,000 killed and wounded on the Russian side. Thats over half of what they started the war with invading Ukraine. That alone is getting back to families all over the country. Throw in the fact that the Russian casualty and equipment lost is continuing unabated is causing so many secondary issues.
  • A generation of lost military officer training and modern skillset
  • A long term destruction of their economy
  • Huge brain drain for those highly educated and can write software in some other county besides Russia
  • They will be a cancer most of the world will ignore for decades to come
  • Even their military equipment is now considered subpar so they wont be able to sell nearly as much as before. (Many countries have allready canceled large orders)

This is turning into a complete and total destruction of the Russia that could have emerged from the Soviet Collapse. They are basically Demilitarizing themselves, and destroying their already weak economic strength for decades to come.
They used to be a second-world country with nukes, but they're now becoming a third-world country with nukes.
 

bobongo

Helluva Engineer
Messages
5,056
Let's hope the Russian people help put an end to this thing quickly...with the help of these HIMARS. I'm leaning towards this being a mostly Euro problem, I'm tired of everybody expecting us to do their dirty work, and I'm losing sympathy for Zelensky, bigly. I feel tremendously though for the everyday Uke.
I don't agree with you about Zelensky. He's right when he says Ukraine isn't just fighting for itself, it's fighting for the entire western world. He's been a brave and effective leader. He's risen to the occasion.
 

GT33

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
503
Just saw this thread. A couple of things:

1. You can't use weapons that you can't service and supply. The HIMARS systems are very capable, but the UA needs to be trained in how to use them (easy) and maintain them (hard). Then the supplies of rockets need to build up. Just as a point here, a single load of an HIMARS weighs in at 2500lbs. They have special vehicles that carry the loads and these have to be re-supplied. And that's nothing compared to the M270 MLRS systems they'll be getting from the UK. Those are supposedly hell to maintain and each load out is twice the size of an HIMARS. And that's just the rocket artillery; at present the UA is slowly transitioning to NATO standard calibers. That will take awhile. War is about logistics. The Germans produced more munitions and equipment in 1944, when they were already losing, then any other year. Problem: they couldn't deliver the stuff to the fighting units.

2. The UA has to wait the present phase out until late August/early September. At that point the new formations should be ready for use. They'll be mostly recruits, so the initial results probably won't be all that special. Oth, the UA has about 600K new soldiers in training. If they can get the equipment they need - more artillery, more tanks, and more APCs - then the numerical equivalence now in place will change dramatically in Ukraine's favor. That's what the UA is planning for, though whether they get the kinds of results they expect is questionable. I foresee a lot more equipment going in soon, especially artillery. Shoot, Portugal is sending them 6 M114 155s dating from WW2. No problem; the standard NATO round fits. We can also see substantial rundown of those 6000 (the Pentagon is always looking ahead) M113 APCs we have in stock. The real problem is standard kit: Ukraine's arms industry is centered in Karkiv and the Russians targeted it extensively early in the war. That means getting the T-64s out of storage and on to the field is more difficult as is servicing the SU era weapon stock of the UA and building new ammunition.

3. So, yes, the war is pretty much at a stalemate now and may stay that way even when the new UA brigades come on line. Still, long run things don't look promising for the Russians.

4. Here's a good goto source for the war:

https://twitter.com/i/lists/1500581907238731776

This has other stuff - Myanmar, Hong Kong, China - but most of the material is on Ukraine v Russia.
It's about 6 weeks later and it appears we're now starting to see trained operators demonstrating the effectiveness of the HIMARS. We've pumped about $6B in aid to Ukraine and this is probably the biggest bang for the buck we've provided.

In a little over 2 weeks we will have reached the 6 month point in this war. Current status:

* Russia is grinding along, the protracted siege continues. They've gained ground in the past 2 months back but having a hard time holding it. Their forces are not performing well, surge capacity is nonexistent, replenishment of forces is problematic.
* Ukraine has mounted a counterinsurgency, results TBD. They are having a hard time maneuvering forces given Russia's strategy & their newer conscripts are now just completing training. The war is significantly weakening Ukraine's forces as well.
* The west is providing more weaponry, likely to have a highly positive benefit. Drones and standoff systems like HIMARS are crucial as would tactical aircraft.
* Energy flow into the EU is substantially disrupted. Gazprom slashed Nord Stream 1 to 20%. Some think Russia needs to sell gas more than Europe needs to buy it. US decision to throttle energy production could not have come at a worse time. Would have been strtegically significant.
* First grain flows out of Ukraine started. Ukraine produced 60% of previous year (50 vs 80 MMT), they internally consume about 40% of what they're currenyl making, leaving about 30MMT to export or about half of normal.
* Iran's maybe helping Russia with drones, DPRK has "volunteered" 100k troops, Chicom's support maybe waning with their economic woes, Belarus support maybe not be as solid, etc.
* Sanctions may be finally starting to have some impact. Projections are an 8-10% Russian economy contraction, less than the 20+% forecasted, but still pretty big. The ruble has not plunged as predicted. US economy contracted 5% in 2009 and that had a massive impact on most Americans. Russia's only real lever is to choke off energy to the EU.

I still seeing this thing taking a long time. Some estimates have the rebuild of Ukraine costing $750B over the course of a decade. Not sure how that even happens. Russia cannot pay for it if they win, a stalemate means nobody is interested and if Ukraine prevails who's running in there to clean up all the rubble.
 
Top