Ukraine

GoldZ

Ramblin' Wreck
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845
I thought it had been decided not to send long range missiles to Ukraine. Am I missing something?
Not ICBMs, we and others committed to send longer range missiles to Ukraine so they could strike Russian assets further away than a few blocks.
Not sure it's likely Putin is going to play very nice in a settlement of this. His history suggests otherwise.
 

Pointer

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,852
It seems as though Zelensky is running out of international support, if the news reports are any indication. Just don't seem much attention in the news reporting. Heck, even here in the Swarm the interest in this mess is diminishing. What we do hear about what's going on primarily in Donbas where Russia seems to be not too far from crushing the Uke's. Russia seems to be toying with Zelensky. Remember a couple of weeks ago where the Russians hit Kiev with rockets? first time in many, many weeks. Putin's health may be declining big time and he may want a victory before he becomes worm food. if Russia prevails soon, what happens to our $40b?
Now is the time to double down. If the west fails in it's support for Ukraine, then Taiwan will be next, and I highly doubt those two to be the end.

Whatever the result, however much of the $40 billion that actually makes it to Ukraine will be a small price to pay for 1. Doing the right thing and 2. Severely weakening Russian military, economy, and Putin's regime.
The key step here is that the European countries actually get off of Russian petroleum and natural gas in the long term.

I think this war is far from decided, and I think the Ukrainians have a good bit of fight left in them yet. Hoping for the best. It's not only in Ukraine's best interest to win, but us here as well.
 

GoldZ

Ramblin' Wreck
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845
Now is the time to double down. If the west fails in it's support for Ukraine, then Taiwan will be next, and I highly doubt those two to be the end.

Whatever the result, however much of the $40 billion that actually makes it to Ukraine will be a small price to pay for 1. Doing the right thing and 2. Severely weakening Russian military, economy, and Putin's regime.
The key step here is that the European countries actually get off of Russian petroleum and natural gas in the long term.

I think this war is far from decided, and I think the Ukrainians have a good bit of fight left in them yet. Hoping for the best. It's not only in Ukraine's best interest to win, but us here as well.
Well, we and they better hope November goes in the right direction in regards that key step.
 

Northeast Stinger

Helluva Engineer
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7,036
First person video from the huge Russian ammunition dump Ukraine destroyed last week. Absolutely crazy

Putin still refuses to declare war on Ukraine since that undermines his propaganda piece. As a result, mobilization of troops is sluggish, no conscription, and logistics remains a nightmare. None of this would be an issue were it not for the fact that Ukraine is a fierce adversary. These kinds of losses as shown in the video are not insignificant. As bad as this war is for Ukraine, Russia is also bleeding badly.
 

MountainBuzzMan

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1,308
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Putin still refuses to declare war on Ukraine since that undermines his propaganda piece. As a result, mobilization of troops is sluggish, no conscription, and logistics remains a nightmare. None of this would be an issue were it not for the fact that Ukraine is a fierce adversary. These kinds of losses as shown in the video are not insignificant. As bad as this war is for Ukraine, Russia is also bleeding badly.
Good. They need to bleed until they are no longer capable of invading and destroying peaceful neighbors. The new western weapons should greatly increase the bleed
 

bobongo

Helluva Engineer
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5,699
Good. They need to bleed until they are no longer capable of invading and destroying peaceful neighbors. The new western weapons should greatly increase the bleed
The more they pay for their Ukraine blunder, the less eager they'll be to try it in other countries. Once burnt, twice learnt.
 

GoldZ

Ramblin' Wreck
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845
Good. They need to bleed until they are no longer capable of invading and destroying peaceful neighbors. The new western weapons should greatly increase the bleed
The new western weapons were promised quite awhile back. Seeing as how a lot of them were pre-staged in Europe, it seems to be taking forever to get them on the battlefield. I'm not sure Ukraine has forever. Is this yet another thing we have screwed up, like not helping much earlier when it was obvious what Putin was going to do? Crimea says Hi, or in this case...Bye.
 

bobongo

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5,699
The new western weapons were promised quite awhile back. Seeing as how a lot of them were pre-staged in Europe, it seems to be taking forever to get them on the battlefield. I'm not sure Ukraine has forever. Is this yet another thing we have screwed up, like not helping much earlier when it was obvious what Putin was going to do? Crimea says Hi, or in this case...Bye.
 

Northeast Stinger

Helluva Engineer
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7,036
The new western weapons were promised quite awhile back. Seeing as how a lot of them were pre-staged in Europe, it seems to be taking forever to get them on the battlefield. I'm not sure Ukraine has forever. Is this yet another thing we have screwed up, like not helping much earlier when it was obvious what Putin was going to do? Crimea says Hi, or in this case...Bye.
NPR reported that weapons are arriving daily.
 

Northeast Stinger

Helluva Engineer
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7,036
Longer range missile systems should make daily headlines very soon then, huh? Maybe the Russian ammo dump kill was the first of many.
I’m no military expert so I could not tell if that was a missile or a drone strike. Either way that was a lot of ordinance that got blown up very quickly.
 

GT33

Ramblin' Wreck
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747
They now got HIMARS albeit without the ATACMS and PzH2000s from the Germans. The M777's we gave them have been fraught with issues- barrel bending, recoil system leaks, etc plus a bunch got destroyed. It's a good show of support but I'm not sure it's significant in the grand scheme of things & is unlikely to hasten an end to this protracted siege. Let's hope someone figures something out soon. Ukraine is being systematiclly destroyed and will take decades to recover.

 

bobongo

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5,699
They now got HIMARS albeit without the ATACMS and PzH2000s from the Germans. The M777's we gave them have been fraught with issues- barrel bending, recoil system leaks, etc plus a bunch got destroyed. It's a good show of support but I'm not sure it's significant in the grand scheme of things & is unlikely to hasten an end to this protracted siege. Let's hope someone figures something out soon. Ukraine is being systematiclly destroyed and will take decades to recover.

I wonder if what's already been figured out is that Vladimir Putin is a psychopath who is particularly dangerous because he is dying. A dying sociopath with the power to launch nuclear weapons may not hesitate to do so if backed into a corner. The strategy is to provide Ukraine with just enough weapons to slow the Russians down and perhaps achieve a stalemate until Putin kicks off and then, hopefully, we can come to a negotiated settlement with a saner Russian government. We could easily defeat Russia conventionally. But there is another consideration, and it involves an existential threat. This has to be foremost in the minds of those who are making the decisions of NATO and the west. It may well be seen as the best of all the bad alternatives. It is dangerous to be seen as acceding to nuclear blackmail but on the other hand it is dangerous to provoke a dying psychotic with the power to destroy the world by nuclear conflagration. Best would be for Putin to die suddenly, and I would bet that there are a select few in our intelligence community who are trying to figure out a way to make that happen without the cause being discovered, even if it is technically against federal law.

I'm just saying that's what I think is going on here, and that is what has been "figured out".
 

GT33

Ramblin' Wreck
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747
@bobongo Maybe the US is the one that gave him the cancer? Ukraine's destruction could just be the price we've paid for the elimination of Putin. Wouldn't be the first time.
 

GoldZ

Ramblin' Wreck
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845
I wonder if what's already been figured out is that Vladimir Putin is a psychopath who is particularly dangerous because he is dying. A dying sociopath with the power to launch nuclear weapons may not hesitate to do so if backed into a corner. The strategy is to provide Ukraine with just enough weapons to slow the Russians down and perhaps achieve a stalemate until Putin kicks off and then, hopefully, we can come to a negotiated settlement with a saner Russian government. We could easily defeat Russia conventionally. But there is another consideration, and it involves an existential threat. This has to be foremost in the minds of those who are making the decisions of NATO and the west. It may well be seen as the best of all the bad alternatives. It is dangerous to be seen as acceding to nuclear blackmail but on the other hand it is dangerous to provoke a dying psychotic with the power to destroy the world by nuclear conflagration. Best would be for Putin to die suddenly, and I would bet that there are a select few in our intelligence community who are trying to figure out a way to make that happen without the cause being discovered, even if it is technically against federal law.

I'm just saying that's what I think is going on here, and that is what has been "figured out".
Assuming (dangerous), that the powers to be in Russia required to actually launch nukes, are not stupid (safe assumption), then they understand fully what MAD actually means. Hard to pull the trigger (push the button) that kills your family and destroys your Country, not to mention the World at large.
 

bobongo

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Assuming (dangerous), that the powers to be in Russia required to actually launch nukes, are not stupid (safe assumption), then they understand fully what MAD actually means. Hard to pull the trigger (push the button) that kills your family and destroys your Country, not to mention the World at large.
That's what it all comes down to - how crazy is the guy at the top and how much control does he wield? How many sane people would an insane order have to pass through before carried out?

 

takethepoints

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5,433
Just saw this thread. A couple of things:

1. You can't use weapons that you can't service and supply. The HIMARS systems are very capable, but the UA needs to be trained in how to use them (easy) and maintain them (hard). Then the supplies of rockets need to build up. Just as a point here, a single load of an HIMARS weighs in at 2500lbs. They have special vehicles that carry the loads and these have to be re-supplied. And that's nothing compared to the M270 MLRS systems they'll be getting from the UK. Those are supposedly hell to maintain and each load out is twice the size of an HIMARS. And that's just the rocket artillery; at present the UA is slowly transitioning to NATO standard calibers. That will take awhile. War is about logistics. The Germans produced more munitions and equipment in 1944, when they were already losing, then any other year. Problem: they couldn't deliver the stuff to the fighting units.

2. The UA has to wait the present phase out until late August/early September. At that point the new formations should be ready for use. They'll be mostly recruits, so the initial results probably won't be all that special. Oth, the UA has about 600K new soldiers in training. If they can get the equipment they need - more artillery, more tanks, and more APCs - then the numerical equivalence now in place will change dramatically in Ukraine's favor. That's what the UA is planning for, though whether they get the kinds of results they expect is questionable. I foresee a lot more equipment going in soon, especially artillery. Shoot, Portugal is sending them 6 M114 155s dating from WW2. No problem; the standard NATO round fits. We can also see substantial rundown of those 6000 (the Pentagon is always looking ahead) M113 APCs we have in stock. The real problem is standard kit: Ukraine's arms industry is centered in Karkiv and the Russians targeted it extensively early in the war. That means getting the T-64s out of storage and on to the field is more difficult as is servicing the SU era weapon stock of the UA and building new ammunition.

3. So, yes, the war is pretty much at a stalemate now and may stay that way even when the new UA brigades come on line. Still, long run things don't look promising for the Russians.

4. Here's a good goto source for the war:

https://twitter.com/i/lists/1500581907238731776

This has other stuff - Myanmar, Hong Kong, China - but most of the material is on Ukraine v Russia.
 
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ScGold

Banned
Messages
534
How is Gen Phillip Breedlove associated with Tech? Watching fox news when they interviewed him. He had the old gold tech helmet and navy gt cap in the background.
 
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