Ukraine

bobongo

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4,730
I feel like this is a major point that most people do not take into account.
Russia is carrying out a genocide. A tactic of fascists like Putin is to accuse others of what they themselves are guilty.

 

MWBATL

Helluva Engineer
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5,317
Russia is carrying out a genocide. A tactic of fascists like Putin is to accuse others of what they themselves are guilty.

That is a tactic of MANY people. Mostly liars and politicians...oh, sorry, did not mean to be redundant there.
 

LongforDodd

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2,324
Is this the beginning of the end for Zelensky and our $40b? I think he's running out of countries that care anymore.
 

GoldZ

Ramblin' Wreck
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732
Seeing as how our long range missiles were pre-staged in Europe, where the hell are they? The necessity for "training" is one thing, but someone drowning doesn't need swimming lessons--they need a life preserver. If we can fire drones in Iraq from Tampa, why not do the same with the missile systems with a Ukrainian soldier wearing an earpiece(yeah, not that simple, but....).
 

orientalnc

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Retired Staff
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Seeing as how our long range missiles were pre-staged in Europe, where the hell are they? The necessity for "training" is one thing, but someone drowning doesn't need swimming lessons--they need a life preserver. If we can fire drones in Iraq from Tampa, why not do the same with the missile systems with a Ukrainian soldier wearing an earpiece(yeah, not that simple, but....).
I have also wondered why we have not figured out how to make this work.
 

LongforDodd

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What exactly are you implying?
It seems as though Zelensky is running out of international support, if the news reports are any indication. Just don't seem much attention in the news reporting. Heck, even here in the Swarm the interest in this mess is diminishing. What we do hear about what's going on primarily in Donbas where Russia seems to be not too far from crushing the Uke's. Russia seems to be toying with Zelensky. Remember a couple of weeks ago where the Russians hit Kiev with rockets? first time in many, many weeks. Putin's health may be declining big time and he may want a victory before he becomes worm food. if Russia prevails soon, what happens to our $40b?
 

LongforDodd

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I thought it had been decided not to send long range missiles to Ukraine. Am I missing something?
A hand grenade could be thrown from Ukraine and blow up something in Russia. Not sending long range missiles because they could blow up something in Russia seems dumb.
 

bobongo

Helluva Engineer
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4,730
A hand grenade could be thrown from Ukraine and blow up something in Russia. Not sending long range missiles because they could blow up something in Russia seems dumb.
I guess it depends on what is meant by "long-range". The British are sending systems with a range of 80 kilometers, and I think we're sending something comparable. And targets have been hit in Russia already. They're going to be wary of sending anything that could reach Moscow, which is 450 km. away, or come anywhere close to it.
 

Northeast Stinger

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6,749
I believe the trajectory of this war would change dramatically if missiles were falling on Russian cities. And, it isn't likely until that time.
Just playing devil’s advocate here but…the brainwashing of the Russian people has been thorough and complete. Missiles falling on their cities only seems to reinforce their paranoia about Nazis in Ukraine and the world being out to get them. Whereas, no perceived direct threat to Russia coupled with slowly lengthening food lines, failed businesses and foreign investments being pulled may be the better path to domestic turmoil and anti-Putin sentiment.

Not arguing just musing out loud.
 

bobongo

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4,730
I believe the trajectory of this war would change dramatically if missiles were falling on Russian cities. And, it isn't likely until that time.
Obviously, NATO could make short work of Russian conventional forces. Their venture into Ukraine could be over by the 4th of July.
It's those other forces, the nuclear ones, that are the 800-pound gorillas in the room.
Putin is ill. He may live a few more years or be dead by Christmas. That has to be a heavy part of the calculation, when will he go, and what will replace him.
In the meantime, we don't want any of those gorillas to get loose.
 

Techster

Helluva Engineer
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15,004
It seems as though Zelensky is running out of international support, if the news reports are any indication. Just don't seem much attention in the news reporting. Heck, even here in the Swarm the interest in this mess is diminishing. What we do hear about what's going on primarily in Donbas where Russia seems to be not too far from crushing the Uke's. Russia seems to be toying with Zelensky. Remember a couple of weeks ago where the Russians hit Kiev with rockets? first time in many, many weeks. Putin's health may be declining big time and he may want a victory before he becomes worm food. if Russia prevails soon, what happens to our $40b?

Ukraine is reporting they are only getting 10% of what's been promised by NATO and the international community. Of course, to NATO's defense and United State's defense, it's REALLY hard to get what Ukraine is asking for into the country. Russia controls all shipments into Ukraine via the Black Sea. Also, there's still the issue of dispersing those items to the battlefront. Russia pretty much controls the airways as well. Not too many options to get Ukraine their largescale weapons.

There's always the possibility NATO and the US is slow playing a bit hoping for compromise between Russia and Ukraine. Given what's going on in the US and abroad in terms of the economy and certain political drama, not too many are focused on Ukraine at the moment given more pressing needs at home. I hope Ukraine gets what they need and this war ends soon...absolutely devastating right now in Ukraine and they are slowly being cut off from the world.
 

bobongo

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4,730
Ukraine is reporting they are only getting 10% of what's been promised by NATO and the international community. Of course, to NATO's defense and United State's defense, it's REALLY hard to get what Ukraine is asking for into the country. Russia controls all shipments into Ukraine via the Black Sea. Also, there's still the issue of dispersing those items to the battlefront. Russia pretty much controls the airways as well. Not too many options to get Ukraine their largescale weapons.

There's always the possibility NATO and the US is slow playing a bit hoping for compromise between Russia and Ukraine. Given what's going on in the US and abroad in terms of the economy and certain political drama, not too many are focused on Ukraine at the moment given more pressing needs at home. I hope Ukraine gets what they need and this war ends soon...absolutely devastating right now in Ukraine and they are slowly being cut off from the world.
The realpolitik of this is that the west is walking a tightrope between supporting Ukraine and not wanting to humiliate Putin, which could trigger a wider conflict (read: nuclear war). I believe that under the circumstances, what is targeted by the west is some sort of compromise which will save Putin's fascist face and at the same time save the lion's share of Ukraine (read: stalemate). In the end, Ukraine will have to cede some territory in order to placate the Russian bear and send him home. They'll end up with the Donbas (and Crimea) but that's about all. They won't get Odessa, and they won't landlock Ukraine.

I'm not saying it's right or just (it isn't), and I'm not saying Russia would actually use nukes if backed against the wall in Ukraine. I'm just saying this is what I think is going on, and this is the needle the west sees itself as needing to thread. And I can understand that thinking. Overlaying all of this is Putin's health and the uncertainty of when he'll go and what happens after he does. He'll probably be replaced by a like-minded despot, but one who may be a more circumspect and practical.
 

bobongo

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Who knows what this really means, but it is interesting coming today from the odds-on favorite to be Putin's successor:

 

orientalnc

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The realpolitik of this is that the west is walking a tightrope between supporting Ukraine and not wanting to humiliate Putin, which could trigger a wider conflict (read: nuclear war). I believe that under the circumstances, what is targeted by the west is some sort of compromise which will save Putin's fascist face and at the same time save the lion's share of Ukraine (read: stalemate). In the end, Ukraine will have to cede some territory in order to placate the Russian bear and send him home. They'll end up with the Donbas (and Crimea) but that's about all. They won't get Odessa, and they won't landlock Ukraine.

I'm not saying it's right or just (it isn't), and I'm not saying Russia would actually use nukes if backed against the wall in Ukraine. I'm just saying this is what I think is going on, and this is the needle the west sees itself as needing to thread. And I can understand that thinking. Overlaying all of this is Putin's health and the uncertainty of when he'll go and what happens after he does. He'll probably be replaced by a like-minded despot, but one who may be a more circumspect and practical.
This is probably correct. Russia, via proxies, has controlled much or Donbas and Crimea for a good long while, so ceding it to them would not drastically change things on the ground. And there are not many Ukrainians left in those areas at this point. And there is almost total destruction in the cities.

Whatever compromise Russia agrees to will almost have to cede territory in exchange for Ukraine being fully recognized by Russia and Ukraine's choice whether to join the EU and NATO. I also think Russa will be required to pay reparations for rebuilding in the Ukrainian territory that remains.
 

Techster

Helluva Engineer
Messages
15,004
The realpolitik of this is that the west is walking a tightrope between supporting Ukraine and not wanting to humiliate Putin, which could trigger a wider conflict (read: nuclear war). I believe that under the circumstances, what is targeted by the west is some sort of compromise which will save Putin's fascist face and at the same time save the lion's share of Ukraine (read: stalemate). In the end, Ukraine will have to cede some territory in order to placate the Russian bear and send him home. They'll end up with the Donbas (and Crimea) but that's about all. They won't get Odessa, and they won't landlock Ukraine.

I'm not saying it's right or just (it isn't), and I'm not saying Russia would actually use nukes if backed against the wall in Ukraine. I'm just saying this is what I think is going on, and this is the needle the west sees itself as needing to thread. And I can understand that thinking. Overlaying all of this is Putin's health and the uncertainty of when he'll go and what happens after he does. He'll probably be replaced by a like-minded despot, but one who may be a more circumspect and practical.

I agree. Giving Putin a "soft" landing is probably what NATO and the US wants without saying it out loud. Given how important Russia has become in terms of resources, there's still "post" Ukraine to think about.
 
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