Ukraine

Pointer

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I would also be interested in seeing if the posters here who had this idea, in that Putin is a genius.

To @GT33's point, while we are spending lots of money and arms reserves, it's better (much much better) than sending our own troops in. It also will likely cost less. It's also necessary because the stronger Russia gets, the weaker Europe becomes and the weaker we will be. It also helps China, since they were strong allies with Russia (keyword were https://www.express.co.uk/news/worl...d-in-ukraine-xi-jinping-vladimir-putin-latest)

So while China is watching some weapons reserves being tapped by the west, it is really of minimal significance. The defense companies are kicking things into overdrive to alleviate the concern there. At the same time, the weaker your enemy and their allies, the better. Their major ally in Russia is significant weakened by this war.

Russia also made some money on the increased oil price, but the short sighted view is the sanctions are ineffective because of this. The sanctions are the investment in ensuring Russia's future demise. Especially when summer hits and their customer countries find alternate sources. The weapons are the immediate investment needed to stop the Russian advance now.

Finally, Russia is losing a ton of military equipment, while at the same time getting exposed for their lack of sufficient military/equipment. I highly doubt there will be a 2nd or even 3rd wave, especially given the crippling sanctions that will take effect like quick sand.

In summary, Putin is no genius. Almost every move he's made here has been disastrous and now almost all of his Western border is NATO.

Putin=massive idiot.
 

gtphd

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336
I don’t think Putin is an idiot. What I suspect is that he created a culture of “yes men” in the Kremlin including in his military (a dictator who kills people that dissent tend to do that).

Taking eastern Ukraine with its food and energy reserves would be an excellent move. He floated the idea to his diplomats who did the yes man thing and told him that the West would crumble rather than risk nuclear war. Then he floated it to the military who did the yes man thing and said they could capture Kiev in days and Ukraine would surrender like in 2014 and cede massive parts of the country. So this seemed like a no brainer. Until none of that happened.
 

GT33

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Maybe using the word "ineffective" regarding sanctions is not correct as there has been some impact just not the desired effect- deterrence. Suboptimal, poor, misguided, disjointed all would have been better adjectives. Afterall, what kind of sanctions results is the US having a greater trade imbalance with Russia than before we started? It was supposed to hurt. The extent to which Russia's economy is much more global than other regimes we've punished via sanctions & their immunity from weaker, uncoordinated sanctions is not to be discounted. We had a chance to cripple Russia, but went easy on them and it will take a long time now until it bites. We gave them time and space to operate & disrupted our own stratgey.


As far as the javelins for example, Lockheed's attempting to ramp production but we're probably 36-48 months away from replenshing stocks as production levels had been cut to very low levels. There's significant chatter regarding our readiness levels but quite frankly I'm not sure reliable info is anywhere publically available. We were already were seeing fractures in our own military readiness after a decade of hollowing the force accompanied with significant deployment cycles, cost over runs of new equipment/systems, etc.


In a somewhat surprising turn after I posted, Russia sacked Mariupol. Guess it was not unexpected.
 

Pointer

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Again the sanctions are the long term pain, the javelins and other weapons are the short term ones.

Gotta think long term here. And please believe we have much more in the arsenal than just javelins, and even those I'm sure we have in higher supply then some want to believe.

Long term thinking, we and the west have gone for the jugular here, and it comes at a relatively low cost and minimal commitment. Russia has effectively lost, and the west has done a fine job so far with regards to support. By no means have the responses been perfect, but without plunging into WWIII, it's been about as good as we can relatively hope for.

Also Putin is definitely an idiot. Smart leaders surround themselves with smart people who give well thought-out guidance. That's what all the great leaders in history have done. All the dumb ones have done as Putin has.

Again the war in Ukraine is the short game, the sanctions are the long. I find it hard to believe Russia will not be crippled if it loses Europe for it's energy exports (seems more and more likely by the day) not to mention all of the other several bank and business sanctions.
 
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Northeast Stinger

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Again the sanctions are the long term pain, the javelins and other weapons are the short term ones.

Gotta think long term here. And please believe we have much more in the arsenal than just javelins, and even those I'm sure we have in higher supply then some want to believe.

Long term thinking, we and the west have gone for the jugular here, and it comes at a relatively low cost and minimal commitment. Russia has effectively lost, and the west has done a fine job so far with regards to support. By no means have the responses been perfect, but without plunging into WWIII, it's been about as good as we can relatively hope for.

Also Putin is definitely an idiot. Smart leaders surround themselves with smart people who give well thought-out guidance. That's what all the great leaders in history have done. All the dumb ones have done as Putin has.

Again the war in Ukraine is the short game, the sanctions are the long. I find it hard to believe Russia will not be crippled if it loses Europe for it's energy exports (seems more and more likely by the day) not to mention all of the other several bank and business sanctions.
When sanctions were imposed there was an exodus of entrepreneurs and business people. As the brain drain continues there is serious long term damage being done to their economy. Putin’s wealth, as well as that of the oligarchs, insulates the ruling class from the pain but also puts them out of touch with the mood of the people. People will blindly follow Putin for a time but the will to fight a war will be sapped when bread lines are an ongoing reality.
 

GT33

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Again the sanctions are the long term pain, the javelins and other weapons are the short term ones.

Gotta think long term here. And please believe we have much more in the arsenal than just javelins, and even those I'm sure we have in higher supply then some want to believe.

Long term thinking, we and the west have gone for the jugular here, and it comes at a relatively low cost and minimal commitment. Russia has effectively lost, and the west has done a fine job so far with regards to support. By no means have the responses been perfect, but without plunging into WWIII, it's been about as good as we can relatively hope for.

Also Putin is definitely an idiot. Smart leaders surround themselves with smart people who give well thought-out guidance. That's what all the great leaders in history have done. All the dumb ones have done as Putin has.

Again the war in Ukraine is the short game, the sanctions are the long. I find it hard to believe Russia will not be crippled if it loses Europe for it's energy exports (seems more and more likely by the day) not to mention all of the other several bank and business sanctions.
The minimal support approach with respect to weapons has been sound. We're dealing with Ukraine, a country our own State Department has castigated as extraordinarily corrupt, fraught with human rights abuses, etc. Zelensky is no choir boy & the regime left over in Ukraine after this conflict comes to an end with either be a puppet of Putin or worse than they went in.

Also agree that dictators traditionally surround themselves with imbeciles and/or people solely focused on becoming wealthy at the expense of their country. Russia is certainly no exception to this rule.

This is my last commentay on this & I'm signing off for a while but remember we pummeled Russia into submission in the 80's and early 90's. It did not take them long to rebuild & ressert themselves into a major annoyance. Someone will likely replace Putin in less than a decade. What will we get? Will it be a leader Gorbachev, Krushchev or Brezhnev or like Putin? Make no mistake those desiring to ascend to power are watching very closely and they may not be learning the lessons we want them to learn.
 

orientalnc

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The minimal support approach with respect to weapons has been sound. We're dealing with Ukraine, a country our own State Department has castigated as extraordinarily corrupt, fraught with human rights abuses, etc. Zelensky is no choir boy & the regime left over in Ukraine after this conflict comes to an end with either be a puppet of Putin or worse than they went in.

Also agree that dictators traditionally surround themselves with imbeciles and/or people solely focused on becoming wealthy at the expense of their country. Russia is certainly no exception to this rule.

This is my last commentay on this & I'm signing off for a while but remember we pummeled Russia into submission in the 80's and early 90's. It did not take them long to rebuild & ressert themselves into a major annoyance. Someone will likely replace Putin in less than a decade. What will we get? Will it be a leader Gorbachev, Krushchev or Brezhnev or like Putin? Make no mistake those desiring to ascend to power are watching very closely and they may not be learning the lessons we want them to learn.
Smart move. This is about as deep into the muck of misinformation as I have seen.
 

orientalnc

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Ukraine was a country and government with a lot of corruption at one time. To say that Zelensky will be a puppet of Putin is just a far fetched "assertion" with no basis in reality.
 

Pointer

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Ukraine was a country and government with a lot of corruption at one time. To say that Zelensky will be a puppet of Putin is just a far fetched "assertion" with no basis in reality.
Thanks, was about to point it out myself.

The minimal support approach with respect to weapons has been sound. We're dealing with Ukraine, a country our own State Department has castigated as extraordinarily corrupt, fraught with human rights abuses, etc. Zelensky is no choir boy & the regime left over in Ukraine after this conflict comes to an end with either be a puppet of Putin or worse than they went in.

Also agree that dictators traditionally surround themselves with imbeciles and/or people solely focused on becoming wealthy at the expense of their country. Russia is certainly no exception to this rule.

This is my last commentay on this & I'm signing off for a while but remember we pummeled Russia into submission in the 80's and early 90's. It did not take them long to rebuild & ressert themselves into a major annoyance. Someone will likely replace Putin in less than a decade. What will we get? Will it be a leader Gorbachev, Krushchev or Brezhnev or like Putin? Make no mistake those desiring to ascend to power are watching very closely and they may not be learning the lessons we want them to learn.
It very well may be the case that if Putin is removed from power, someone very similar or worse takes his place.

Or maybe someone like Alexei Navalny, who has considerable support within Russia, comes to power and makes Russia and the world in general a better place.
 

GT33

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Ukraine was a country and government with a lot of corruption at one time. To say that Zelensky will be a puppet of Putin is just a far fetched "assertion" with no basis in reality.
Sorry sentence might have been confusing. Wasn’t saying Zelensky would be a puppet, was trying to say we either end up with a Putin puppet or something different (could be much better but could also be much worse). We could end up with Zelensky, but like trying to guide a regime as we’ve done in the past our history suggests we might not be such good pickers of “friends”
 

slugboy

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I was informed by a mod after several people’s including my posts were nuked that politics was not allowed in here and to go to a political section that quite frankly I do not have the desire or patience to locate. Maybe this stays, maybe it gets nuked and I’m in the doghouse.

<snip>
It might have been me.

My comments here are general, and not directed at you.

This thread has had more latitude than most, and it was originally about what we could do for humanitarian relief. And, no offense to the posters here, but there's better information about the war situation and the tactics outside of this board than in this thread. The thread as it is now would fit better in the Politics subforum.
 

kg01

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Ukraine was a country and government with a lot of corruption at one time. To say that Zelensky will be a puppet of Putin is just a far fetched "assertion" with no basis in reality.

No, as he ultimately re-explained, I don't think he's saying the current guy would be a puppet. He's saying whoever replaces him could indeed be. That's how I read it, anyway.
 

MWBATL

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Thanks for responding. I/we weren't calling you out, just wanted an updated view.

If this takes upwards of 3 years, wonder if the Russian people can keep it together that long.
In a CNN video about Ukraine sending videos of dead Russian soldiers to their families in Russia, the Ukrainians in charge of the process indicated about 80% of the Russians responded with angry threats to come to Ukraine themselves and kill all of the nazis there. It sounds like they have a VERY different view and support remains strong despite some dissent.
 

Northeast Stinger

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In a CNN video about Ukraine sending videos of dead Russian soldiers to their families in Russia, the Ukrainians in charge of the process indicated about 80% of the Russians responded with angry threats to come to Ukraine themselves and kill all of the nazis there. It sounds like they have a VERY different view and support remains strong despite some dissent.
I’m sure the majority of Russians are on board with this (not a war) “operation” to rescue Ukraine from Nazis. At some point, as the cognitive dissonance grows, what they are being fed by state TV will not match up with their own experience, if not already. How long will they be able to disbelieve what their eyes are telling them, I wonder.
 

GTpdm

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In a CNN video about Ukraine sending videos of dead Russian soldiers to their families in Russia, the Ukrainians in charge of the process indicated about 80% of the Russians responded with angry threats to come to Ukraine themselves and kill all of the nazis there. It sounds like they have a VERY different view and support remains strong despite some dissent.
I have a Russian colleague who reports something similar. Almost all his family and friends back in Mother Russia have shunned him.

He tries to tell them that Ukrainians are not nazis but they can not unknot the plots they see on TV, and so cant see that the sea of “nazis” are not nazis, see?

(Woo…getting dizzy here. Must stop and rest for a bit…)
 

RonJohn

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I have a Russian colleague who reports something similar. Almost all his family and friends back in Mother Russia have shunned him.

He tries to tell them that Ukrainians are not nazis but they can not unknot the plots they see on TV, and so cant see that the sea of “nazis” are not nazis, see?

(Woo…getting dizzy here. Must stop and rest for a bit…)
As ridiculous as it sounds to us to hear Ukraine described as a Nazi country, from what I have read I think that people inside Russia have a very different understanding of the word "Nazi" than we do. Instead of anti-Jewish racists, people in Russia remember Nazis as fascist, anti-Slavic racists who attacked the Soviet Union and killed 27 million Soviet Slavs. I still don't have any belief that Ukraine fits under that definition either. However, in an autocratic society in which the leader can control what information is available to the citizens it isn't difficult to yell boogie-man (Nazis) and scare everyone. Especially if you have already convinced the people that everyone who has a contradicting viewpoint (The West) has the intent to destroy their country.

An autocratic society can control public sentiment by controlling information and by creating fear for contradicting that information. It is detrimental to mutual understanding between our societies that such words as "Nazi" have such different meanings among us.
 

kg01

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As ridiculous as it sounds to us to hear Ukraine described as a Nazi country, from what I have read I think that people inside Russia have a very different understanding of the word "Nazi" than we do. .....

I feel like this is a major point that most people do not take into account.
 
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