Ukraine

GT33

Ramblin' Wreck
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567
Let’s get back to practical concrete actions we can individually take to help people in Ukraine.
I’m on my phone, but the situation has changed in that more relief organizations are actively in Ukraine and surrounding countries. I’ll look to post info later when I’m not typing with thumbs.

We may prune this thread and move political content to the politics forum.
This is the 2nd or 3rd time someone has referred to a political section. Where the heck is that thing located? I see 6 forums and none are labelled political or anything like that.
 

Northeast Stinger

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6,904
Let’s get back to practical concrete actions we can individually take to help people in Ukraine.
I’m on my phone, but the situation has changed in that more relief organizations are actively in Ukraine and surrounding countries. I’ll look to post info later when I’m not typing with thumbs.

We may prune this thread and move political content to the politics forum.
I participated in a community pot luck meal, raffle-auction, and concert last night for Ukraine. We were able to raise a considerable amount for World Central Kitchen and Ukraine food donations.

Was gratifying to see a large turnout and so many people who want to help. Everything was donated by all the vendors, artists and musicians.
 

slugboy

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This is the 2nd or 3rd time someone has referred to a political section. Where the heck is that thing located? I see 6 forums and none are labelled political or anything like that.
It’s here: https://gtswarm.com/forums/political-topics.57/

There is an opt-in process for the political topics forum. It’s pinned to the top of the Swarm Lounge at https://gtswarm.com/threads/political-topics-at-georgia-tech-swarm.21389/

UPDATE: I moved some posts to the Political Topics forum. I didn’t move all that could or should be moved, but I did mainly move some from the last page.
 
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Pointer

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Unconfirmed source, but if they are right, this could cripple the Russian army and put a much quicker end to this empire rebuilding attempt by Putin.
 

Northeast Stinger

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Unconfirmed source, but if they are right, this could cripple the Russian army and put a much quicker end to this empire rebuilding attempt by Putin.
There is also a report from Ukraine intelligence that Putin will be the victim of a coup if the war is not over by the end of the summer. Yes, I take such reports with a grain of salt but also interesting if true.
 

MountainBuzzMan

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If you want to try to guess some more information, there are people using NASA satellite data designed to detect forest fires looking at "small forest fires" that appear to be getting closer and closer to Izyum. Started on the 5th and is working right up to Izyum proper and beyond.

Twitter Thread
 

MountainBuzzMan

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Now if you want to see pure Russian stupidity, here is some information on their failed river crossing. They lost about 2 Battle Groups of equipment. But what makes it so bad is they got crushed the first time so they said "Hey they wont expect us to try it here a second time" Same results. The Ukraine artillery allready had that location dialed in. Total distaster.
But Wait There is more! for a limited time only extra stupidity! They tried to cross the river a third time at the exact same location.

They interviewed a POW and asked him why they tried it a third time when they saw all the destroyed Russian equipment on the other bank. I kid you not, they told the Third wave of troops that those were Ukraine Equipment and they just Painted V's on them to fool you.

Bad Water Crossing
 

Pointer

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Now if you want to see pure Russian stupidity, here is some information on their failed river crossing. They lost about 2 Battle Groups of equipment. But what makes it so bad is they got crushed the first time so they said "Hey they wont expect us to try it here a second time" Same results. The Ukraine artillery allready had that location dialed in. Total distaster.
But Wait There is more! for a limited time only extra stupidity! They tried to cross the river a third time at the exact same location.

They interviewed a POW and asked him why they tried it a third time when they saw all the destroyed Russian equipment on the other bank. I kid you not, they told the Third wave of troops that those were Ukraine Equipment and they just Painted V's on them to fool you.

Bad Water Crossing
Beginning of the war, I thought people were exaggerating the incompetence of the Russian army, but it's becoming more and more clear that it may have been true all along.
 

orientalnc

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Beginning of the war, I thought people were exaggerating the incompetence of the Russian army, but it's becoming more and more clear that it may have been true all along.
I never thought this could be true until now, but Russia seems to have a nice parade ground military. Not so much a battlefield military. Strut whatever stuff you have.
 

Northeast Stinger

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From everything I’ve read Russia has 5 major problems with their military:

1. One military analyst says they use medieval tactics, believing that if you throw sheer numbers of troops into a battle you win. Training seems to be a low priority as a result.
2. They have never learned how to develop command and control operations in a fluid war situation. Hence their Air Force, with all its sophisticated hardware, is totally neutralized by a smaller Ukrainian Air Force that is well coordinated. This seems to play out with armor, artillery and infantry units also.
3. Related to the above, smaller units do not have the authority to make tactical decisions in real time, waiting for a top down authority to give direction.
4. Graft and corruption riddles the military causing critical shortages of needed supplies.
5. Putin, because of his penchant for propaganda, refuses to call this a war. Because Russia is “not at war” there are limits to what military personnel are required to do with many refusing deployment in areas with heavy fighting.
 

Pointer

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From everything I’ve read Russia has 5 major problems with their military:

1. One military analyst says they use medieval tactics, believing that if you throw sheer numbers of troops into a battle you win. Training seems to be a low priority as a result.
2. They have never learned how to develop command and control operations in a fluid war situation. Hence their Air Force, with all its sophisticated hardware, is totally neutralized by a smaller Ukrainian Air Force that is well coordinated. This seems to play out with armor, artillery and infantry units also.
3. Related to the above, smaller units do not have the authority to make tactical decisions in real time, waiting for a top down authority to give direction.
4. Graft and corruption riddles the military causing critical shortages of needed supplies.
5. Putin, because of his penchant for propaganda, refuses to call this a war. Because Russia is “not at war” there are limits to what military personnel are required to do with many refusing deployment in areas with heavy fighting.
To back up what you are saying, they don't have field leaders such as sergeants for fear or organized revolts.

Also another reason for their horrible showing is because of lack of maintenance and up keep of the military equipment they do have. For example, the tires on their supply vehicles are sometimes decades old. While they have plenty of tread left, the rubber has"rotted"/cracked, resulting in untimely flats. If you don't have a good supply line, it's hard to make much progress.
 

Northeast Stinger

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To back up what you are saying, they don't have field leaders such as sergeants for fear or organized revolts.

Also another reason for their horrible showing is because of lack of maintenance and up keep of the military equipment they do have. For example, the tires on their supply vehicles are sometimes decades old. While they have plenty of tread left, the rubber has"rotted"/cracked, resulting in untimely flats. If you don't have a good supply line, it's hard to make much progress.
Friend of mine with over 20 years in the military says they beat it into them that a poor strategy with excellent logistics beats an excellent plan with poor logistics every time.
 

kg01

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Whatever happened to the poster who had studied military strategy? He said, despite how they appeared, the Russian strategy was going sort of 'according to plan'. A siege strategy is what I think he called it. So losses, of personnel/equipment, were expected.

Am I characterizing his words correctly? If so, is that still the case? Or have things changed and they are going as terribly as they appear to the naked eye, as many of you have described?
 

Lotta Booze

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A lot of what our news is telling us is lazy journalism.. History will show much of what we’re hearing is in fact massively incorrect.

Russia sent the initial force to probe almost 2 weeks ago. There’s lots of reports of Russian dead, etc. Russian do not care about loss of these troops like we would. They are conscripts, expendable. Their more professional military units came in behind after the probe to assess the level the Ukranians would/could resist. They’re now marshaling forces on the outskirts of Kiev & elsewhere, typical Russian encirclement tactics outside the range of Ukranian defenses. Allowing their logisitics to catch up as well. There is nothing unusual about this. They’ve moved about the speed they should be moving. It has all been advertised as extraordinarily slow, much slower than expected & embarassing, but 60km/day is a normal speed for moving armored units. They’re now bombarding cities in order to wear down the Ukranians. They’re bringing in the Chechens. You don’t send in armored in the cities units first, they’d be sitting ducks in an urban environment. All of these tactics are straight out of Russian military doctrine & tactics. It also happens to match some recovered intel regarding Russia’s warplans.

There’s pockets of resistance where the Ukranians have done well. Recapturing Hostomel before losing it again, repelling the amphib landing near Odessa, etc. It could still swing around but it’s increasingly unlikely & a Ukranian insurgency will still give Russia fits here & there. The sanctions, harmful in some respects are largely impotent due to surging oil. US strategy has been lackluster to put it politely, 3 steps to slow, too little too late, left of target and in the dirt, etc. We failed to grasp the strategic implications until it was readily apparent to the most casual observer, failed to understand all the available options and consequences, and will now pay the price in global instability, albeit the Ukranians will pay a much higher price. The world needed strong US leadership & we failed. We confided in the Chinese & they sold us down the river, gave them insights on how we might respond to Taiwan difficulties. Not a good move. We had better get the dipomatic weaklings pushed aisde & get some horsepower in the decision making meetings. The price of continued missteps are going to be severe.
Curious how your view on Russian forces has changed in the past couple months. Especially now that they seem to have pulled back from Kiev completely to focus on the East.
 

Northeast Stinger

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Whatever happened to the poster who had studied military strategy? He said, despite how they appeared, the Russian strategy was going sort of 'according to plan'. A siege strategy is what I think he called it. So losses, of personnel/equipment, were expected.

Am I characterizing his words correctly? If so, is that still the case? Or have things changed and they are going as terribly as they appear to the naked eye, as many of you have described?
Not sure which poster you are referring to. Several of us used “siege strategy” including me. My point all along has been that the Russian strategy was built around a very ignorant and stubborn Putin who believed his own propaganda and thought that the war would be over in 2 weeks. After 2 weeks they settled into a siege strategy but even this fell apart pretty quickly when their stretched out supply lines became targets of opportunity.

One lone poster argued that Putin was a genius but have not seen him post in several weeks. No, everything is going wrong for Putin including the possible expansion of NATO. With his unstable personality this makes him a continuing danger to the world.
 

kg01

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Not sure which poster you are referring to. Several of us used “siege strategy” including me. My point all along has been that the Russian strategy was built around a very ignorant and stubborn Putin who believed his own propaganda and thought that the war would be over in 2 weeks. After 2 weeks they settled into a siege strategy but even this fell apart pretty quickly when their stretched out supply lines became targets of opportunity.

One lone poster argued that Putin was a genius but have not seen him post in several weeks. No, everything is going wrong for Putin including the possible expansion of NATO. With his unstable personality this makes him a continuing danger to the world.
The previous post captured the reply I was referring to. @GT33 seemed adamant all was going according to plan. I'm curious to see how he feels now that we're a couple months in.
 

GT33

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567
The previous post captured the reply I was referring to. @GT33 seemed adamant all was going according to plan. I'm curious to see how he feels now that we're a couple months in.
I was informed by a mod after several people’s including my posts were nuked that politics was not allowed in here and to go to a political section that quite frankly I do not have the desire or patience to locate. Maybe this stays, maybe it gets nuked and I’m in the doghouse.

First, I merely stated that the Russians were following their operational doctrine. They did, have, etc. There’s comments alluding to someone claiming Putin is some sort of genius. Certainly is not me unless you’re referring to his estimation of our/Europe’s backbone. He’s not sane.

I posted a post-mortem to Grozny. It was an extended siege much like I predicted in Ukraine. It took Russia to re-group 3 times there. Very embarrassing, but they learned as they lost. I’d say we’ve got an extended siege going on. I’d say at this point we have failure #1, we will no doubt have failure #2 probably in the next year and if they are successful in sacking Ukraine it would likely be on attempt #3. That could be 3 years from now or possibly more. Who knows? We think Schwarzkopf shock and awe, but that’s not how that stuff works even when the US is running the show.

One thing that I’m amazed by is Russia failure to use airpower. It’s clearly something they should be doing but have not. Absolutely baffling. Costs them tons of losses on the battlefield although they do not value casualties as much as we do, but a real military blunder nevertheless. Strategic failure there.

What western media is saying is in Russia there is mass disillusionment about this war. Interestingly I have a Polish neighbor that’s now estranged from her sister because they argued over this war. I don’t think that’s unique as we think one thing, they think another. It’s really night and day. Hope there’s widespread dissent in Russia brewing but is that on their DNA?

Sanctions have been largely ineffective. Why? Oil prices are up and Russia has more money than before. I’m not sure anyone thinks any of our sanctions have been effective at all. If so, not sure why they would.

Nobody can argue against that Ukraine has and is paying a huge price. The world is paying a huge price- mass uncontrolled migration, economic instability, Africa is going to pay dearly in raised food costs, etc

China is sitting idly by watching weapons stockpiles of its adversaries being expended at a pretty good clip for some gains in Ukraine, but it has hardly ended the siege.

The sinking of the Moskva was awesome. I think either the US or Brits helped, possibly both. Hugely embarrassing.

Recent NATO developments are good. Another miscalculation on Russia’s part. Going way better than I could ever have imagined.

Hope that clarifies my current thoughts. Hope my commentary is not viewed as political but war is inherently political. I’m not sure how you post anything about Ukraine that’s not.
 

kg01

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I was informed by a mod after several people’s including my posts were nuked that politics was not allowed in here and to go to a political section that quite frankly I do not have the desire or patience to locate. Maybe this stays, maybe it gets nuked and I’m in the doghouse.

First, I merely stated that the Russians were following their operational doctrine. They did, have, etc. There’s comments alluding to someone claiming Putin is some sort of genius. Certainly is not me unless you’re referring to his estimation of our/Europe’s backbone. He’s not sane.

I posted a post-mortem to Grozny. It was an extended siege much like I predicted in Ukraine. It took Russia to re-group 3 times there. Very embarrassing, but they learned as they lost. I’d say we’ve got an extended siege going on. I’d say at this point we have failure #1, we will no doubt have failure #2 probably in the next year and if they are successful in sacking Ukraine it would likely be on attempt #3. That could be 3 years from now or possibly more. Who knows? We think Schwarzkopf shock and awe, but that’s not how that stuff works even when the US is running the show.

One thing that I’m amazed by is Russia failure to use airpower. It’s clearly something they should be doing but have not. Absolutely baffling. Costs them tons of losses on the battlefield although they do not value casualties as much as we do, but a real military blunder nevertheless. Strategic failure there.

What western media is saying is in Russia there is mass disillusionment about this war. Interestingly I have a Polish neighbor that’s now estranged from her sister because they argued over this war. I don’t think that’s unique as we think one thing, they think another. It’s really night and day. Hope there’s widespread dissent in Russia brewing but is that on their DNA?

Sanctions have been largely ineffective. Why? Oil prices are up and Russia has more money than before. I’m not sure anyone thinks any of our sanctions have been effective at all. If so, not sure why they would.

Nobody can argue against that Ukraine has and is paying a huge price. The world is paying a huge price- mass uncontrolled migration, economic instability, Africa is going to pay dearly in raised food costs, etc

China is sitting idly by watching weapons stockpiles of its adversaries being expended at a pretty good clip for some gains in Ukraine, but it has hardly ended the siege.

The sinking of the Moskva was awesome. I think either the US or Brits helped, possibly both. Hugely embarrassing.

Recent NATO developments are good. Another miscalculation on Russia’s part. Going way better than I could ever have imagined.

Hope that clarifies my current thoughts. Hope my commentary is not viewed as political but war is inherently political. I’m not sure how you post anything about Ukraine that’s not.

Thanks for responding. I/we weren't calling you out, just wanted an updated view.

If this takes upwards of 3 years, wonder if the Russian people can keep it together that long.
 

Pointer

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Just saw this guy's first episode. Looks like it has some potential in showing what it's really like in Ukraine at the moment.
 
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