The difference between 45% completions and 54% completions

Longestday

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Just trying to get some conversation going...

GT completed 11 of 24 passes in the UGA game in 2013 for a 45% completion rate. GT would have had to complete 2 more passes to get to 54%. Are these 2 passes that important? Think about what it means to be 2nd and 10 in our offense? How important is a third down conversion on a pass? This is the equivalent of 2 drives that are extend from a punt to a field goal to a possible TD.

The same goes for triple option reads. Are 2 bad reads worth all that much? Again, what is 2nd and 10 worth in our offense or being behind on down and distance. I would yield that bad reads can still make yards where a pass provides no yards to an interception.

I wonder how much 54% passing would have changes last season? What about a difference of changing 2 bad reads to 2 good reads per game?
 

gtg936g

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I hate even thinking about that game. There are so many things that we could have done that would have won that game for us. A fourth down stop, one less turnover... This year we must play well for 4 quarters to win against the big boys.
 

TechnicalPossum

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"Do you know what the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is? That's 25 hits...25 hits in 500 at bats is 50 points...ok. There's 6 months in a season. That's about 25 weeks, that means if you get just one extra flair a week, just one. A gork, you get a ground ball, you get a ground ball with eyes! You get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week and you're in Yankee Stadium." -Bull Durham

It all depends on which two. Statistically for GT, maybe a win every other year? It likely depends on the team and the margin of loss. If you are Savannah State and lose consistently by 40, it doesn't matter. If you lose 4 or 5 a year and three of those are by a single score, there is something there.

It is a legit question, but hard to to quantify in terms of wins and losses.
 

Boomergump

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It would mean a lot, but not necessarily in consistent fashion. If a ball falls incomplete in a drive where we score anyway is it really important that it was completed? A dropped pass that results in a punt is another story. If I had to guess, I would say that 54% completions last year was worth an extra win, maybe two. A couple of extra completions could have made a huge difference in the VT and UGA games especially. Another factor is that it may change how defenses attack us - probably a little more cautiously.
 

Longestday

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Some more data for you...

2013 GT passed a total of 203 times with 92 completions for 1695 yards
2012 GT passed a total of 194 times with 102 completions for 1818 yards

2011 GT passed a total of 167 times with 82 completions for 1850 yards

Now I am not a rocket scientist, but I hear and see what CPJ was saying. You can say it was one positions fault or another positions fault or even a combination of groups. The reality is that the issue was an issue.
 

GTpdm

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A couple of extra completions could have made a huge difference in the VT and UGA games especially. Another factor is that it may change how defenses attack us - probably a little more cautiously.

Good point; I think that even a small increase in our completion percentage would make a difference that is more than just huge--it would force our opponents (oops, did I say opponents? I meant enemies) to to defend much more cautiously--which would go a long way toward opening up our offense. Even a small improvement in our passing game could be worth way more than just win or two; I see that as the difference between a 7-5 season and an 10-2 season. (Or even a 12-0 season, but that's an old-gold-sunglasses scenario...)

I'm not suggesting that we should go pass-happy. As Coach Johnson pointed out, in those games last year when we had to pass, it didn't end well for us. I just think that if we can achieve some big gains with the occasional pass here or there, our bread-and-butter offense will reap huge benefits by keeping the opposing (oops, I mean enemy) defense off-balance. Isn't that what spread-based offenses are supposed to do?
 

RamblinCharger

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Great thread. I think once you change two passes a game it could create much more than just a touchdown here or there. It creates a domino effect. What if we get those two passes on the first drive against Virginia tech to start the game and they go for 15 yards a piece, maybe they change their strategy of putting 30 in the box and we don't jump the snap a zillion times and we win by 24. And then we get on a roll because we start believing in ourselves and we roll every single one of the sob's we play. It's huge and I hope we can pass the 54% mark this year, because if we do we'll be in business, and probably the ACCCG.
 

awbuzz

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If we could choose which two passes then yes it c/would make a difference.
Then again if we could choose I'd accept a 33.333% just make each 3rd pass be 15 yards or more (or a TD) and the first two were incomplete (no interceptions) we'd never have to run the ball. But... that's not how it works :)

Regardless, you're right that couple of plays here and there can decide the sway the outcome of the game.
 

Mack

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Well good points by all..........my take is simple when you can throw a little it puts some doubt in a DB head..you will not see the safety outside of the defensive end upsetting the pitch......even though not a fan of flexbone there is no doubt that when you can pass you have single coverage outside and little help from safety topside....that is a given so now who will throw it is another question but it can be done.
 

daBuzz

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When someone focuses on completion percentage in this offense, you can often find yourself being mislead by the data.

In an offense throwing the ball away to avoid taking a sack or because all your receivers were covered doesn't have a great effect on a QB's completion percentage when they're throwing the ball 30 - 40 times per game. But in an offense throwing the ball 12 - 15 times per game, throwing away 2 balls in those situations (which we would all acknowledge as the proper thing to do in that situation) now makes your completion percentage drop by a significant percentage. Furthermore, you can look at things like the interceptions and see that Vad had 2 interceptions in that game. But that doesn't tell the story that one of them came on the last play of the 2nd quarter when he threw the ball on a Hail Mary to the goal line and it was intercepted at the 5 yard line and ended the half. Again, that's a play that I would argue our coach want him to do in that situation...throw the ball up for grabs and hope we get a play. Because the chance of a 54 yard run on that one play is exponentially less likely to succeed than even the rarely successful Hail Mary.

Let's examine the game you mentioned. For those (like me) who hate to have to go back & rewatch that game (Link), here's a summary of the Play by Play (Link then click on the Play by Play tab).

If you do have the stomach to rewatch that game though, you'll see that the pass was what set up every point we had in that game and it's actually easy to argue that we didn't pass enough.

In the first drive, we throw an incomplete pass on 1st down but then on 3rd & 8 at the GT 26, Vad hits Waller in stride for a 68 yard completion to the 3 that sets up a TD.

On the second drive, after Godhigh rushes for 3 then loses 3 on the next play, we're facing 3rd and 10 and Vad hits Godhigh on a pass for 43 yards to the Georgia 37. At this point, we run seven consecutive running plays (no passes) and end up kicking a field goal. Perhaps another play might have resulted in a TD? Who knows.

On the 3rd drive, GT has intercepted the ball and takes over @ the GA 36. After a 5 yard false start by Beno and a 15 yard facemask by GA, Vad hits Smelter for a 26 yard TD pass.

On the 4th drive, 2 pass plays (18 yards to Synjyn on 2nd and 11 and a swing pass to Godhigh out of the backfield for 16 yards to the GA 9) were the 2 biggest plays of the drive. On 3rd and goal (after 2 runs that only gained 4 yards), Vad is pressured and threw the ball away out of bounds to allow the field goal attempt to make it 20-0. Again, perhaps more pass plays would allowed a TD to be scored instead of a FG...who knows?

On the final drive of the half that results in the interception on the Hail Mary as time expires, there is an incomplete on a long pass to Godhigh where Robbie was 2 yards behind his man with no safety help and Vad overthrows him. Still a play that I'd like to take my chances with, given the way GA LB's and safeties were creeping up into the box.

My point? Well, it appears to me that your original contention is to bolster the argument that we tried to pass too much and it hurt us last year. Or if we did pass, we didn't do it effectively. If that's your contention, then go back and watch that game again. Because the passing of Lee is what kept us in that game. There were certainly other days where he wasn't "on" but that day wasn't one of them.
 

Ramblin Wrecker

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I think two more completions/game would definitely move the needle. That being said, I think picking up two more blocks per game would make a bigger difference.
 
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Well good points by all..........my take is simple when you can throw a little it puts some doubt in a DB head..you will not see the safety outside of the defensive end upsetting the pitch......even though not a fan of flexbone there is no doubt that when you can pass you have single coverage outside and little help from safety topside....that is a given so now who will throw it is another question but it can be done.

We don't want doubt in the DB's head. We want doubt in the Defensive Coordinator's head. Our scheme excels on the ground in almost every situation EXCEPT when a talented, physical defensive front seven can position themselves to stop the run. Even when we execute well, it comes down to a hat on a hat, leaving at least one defender free on the ball carrier. We have not had the better athlete in that match-up very often. If our blocking is less than perfect, the defense has a numbers advantage and can stuff the play the majority of the time. There is success going wide if the middle is stuffed, but not to the extent that effective passing produces. The legitimate threat of passing makes all of our running plays more effective. If Justin Thomas shows himself to be a true dual threat player, this offense becomes almost unstoppable. We have been saying this for years. When we can't pass, this offense is very ordinary against better defensive players.
 

orientalnc

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I wonder what our completion percentage is by quarter? It seems to me that we are much better throwing the ball early, when the run is the more likely play from our offense. Later, especially when we are behind, pass plays are much less effective. Am I right?
 
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"Do you know what the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is? That's 25 hits...25 hits in 500 at bats is 50 points...ok. There's 6 months in a season. That's about 25 weeks, that means if you get just one extra flair a week, just one. A gork, you get a ground ball, you get a ground ball with eyes! You get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week and you're in Yankee Stadium." -Bull Durham

It all depends on which two. Statistically for GT, maybe a win every other year? It likely depends on the team and the margin of loss. If you are Savannah State and lose consistently by 40, it doesn't matter. If you lose 4 or 5 a year and three of those are by a single score, there is something there.

It is a legit question, but hard to to quantify in terms of wins and losses.


Thank you, Crash.:)
 

Longestday

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Let me clarify a little. GT was not at the top of the run game and Georgia was playing a lot in the box. Passing was the right thing to do and the reason for many of GT's TDs. Of course, Georgia forcing passing was the right thing for them to do given our past passing stats. Those stats caught up with us.

Given that I know how the season went, I would have preferred to be better at the run game instead of focusing on a 45% completion passing game.
 

daBuzz

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Let me clarify a little. GT was not at the top of the run game and Georgia was playing a lot in the box. Passing was the right thing to do and the reason for many of GT's TDs. Of course, Georgia forcing passing was the right thing for them to do given our past passing stats. Those stats caught up with us.

Given that I know how the season went, I would have preferred to be better at the run game instead of focusing on a 45% completion passing game.

But that's just the point. Sometimes the defense won't give you the run game. I know people like to trot out the saying "Well, Coach Johnson has seen every type of defense there is and there is an answer for every one of them." And that might be true. But if the defense has 9 men in the box, I can assure you that the answer is NOT to run the football.

I'm not a defensive coordinator, but I can tell you that I have seen enough people defeat this offense to know that: superior defensive linemen can cause havoc with our mesh point and/or putting enough people in the box will take away any numeric advantage the option gives you. In those cases, we must be willing and able to pass the football.
 

Mack

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But that's just the point. Sometimes the defense won't give you the run game. I know people like to trot out the saying "Well, Coach Johnson has seen every type of defense there is and there is an answer for every one of them." And that might be true. But if the defense has 9 men in the box, I can assure you that the answer is NOT to run the football.

I'm not a defensive coordinator, but I can tell you that I have seen enough people defeat this offense to know that: superior defensive linemen can cause havoc with our mesh point and/or putting enough people in the box will take away any numeric advantage the option gives you. In those cases, we must be willing and able to pass the football.

We don't want doubt in the DB's head. We want doubt in the Defensive Coordinator's head. Our scheme excels on the ground in almost every situation EXCEPT when a talented, physical defensive front seven can position themselves to stop the run. Even when we execute well, it comes down to a hat on a hat, leaving at least one defender free on the ball carrier. We have not had the better athlete in that match-up very often. If our blocking is less than perfect, the defense has a numbers advantage and can stuff the play the majority of the time. There is success going wide if the middle is stuffed, but not to the extent that effective passing produces. The legitimate threat of passing makes all of our running plays more effective. If Justin Thomas shows himself to be a true dual threat player, this offense becomes almost unstoppable. We have been saying this for years. When we can't pass, this offense is very ordinary against better defensive players.
 

Mack

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We don't want doubt in the DB's head. We want doubt in the Defensive Coordinator's head. Our scheme excels on the ground in almost every situation EXCEPT when a talented, physical defensive front seven can position themselves to stop the run. Even when we execute well, it comes down to a hat on a hat, leaving at least one defender free on the ball carrier. We have not had the better athlete in that match-up very often. If our blocking is less than perfect, the defense has a numbers advantage and can stuff the play the majority of the time. There is success going wide if the middle is stuffed, but not to the extent that effective passing produces. The legitimate threat of passing makes all of our running plays more effective. If Justin Thomas shows himself to be a true dual threat player, this offense becomes almost unstoppable. We have been saying this for years. When we can't pass, this offense is very ordinary against better defensive players.
Yeah would like everybody to fear our passer but no matter what you run if the other side is athletic and better than you are and well. Coached you are in for a long day yet you must get guys out of gap eights so lets chunk it. JT if be has time needs to be little above average and we may roll unless we cant pass protect.put the rock in the air.
 

awbuzz

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Yeah would like everybody to fear our passer but no matter what you run if the other side is athletic and better than you are and well. Coached you are in for a long day yet you must get guys out of gap eights so lets chunk it. JT if be has time needs to be little above average and we may roll unless we cant pass protect.put the rock in the air.

The highlight part makes a BIG difference... (Jimmies and Joes...)
 
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