Article Sizing Up The Syracuse Orange

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Sizing Up The Syracuse Orange

NCAA Football: Pittsburgh at Syracuse
Syracuse Head Coach Dino Babers (Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports)

Believe it or not, the Syracuse Orange are now in year 5 under the reign of Head Coach Dino Babers.  And what a roller coaster it has been.

Sparked in 2018 by gritty senior quarterback Eric Dungey, who led the Orange to 10 wins and a trophy in the ACC’s 2nd slot bowl game (Camping World Bowl), the Babers’ regime has thus far failed to capitalize on the program’s early momentum.  Syracuse backfilled the 2018 campaign by putting an Elite 11 quarterback at the helm in 2019, Tommy DeVito.  Thus far, those accolades have failed to produce.

Offense

Babers has been known throughout his head coaching career as an offensive guru, starting with coaching Jimmy Garoppolo at Eastern Illinois. He followed with by replacing Dave Clawson, current Wake Forest head coach, at Bowling Green.  There he led the Falcons to a MAC championship in 2015 as part of a 10-win season where the offense produced 8 games of 40+ points. So far in 2020, Syracuse (0-2, 0-2) enters week 3 of its schedule in arguably the most dire position offensively that Babers has ever faced.

Through two games in 2020, DeVito has thrown for 144 yards total.  He has been sacked 14 times.  No, those sacks were not simply due to one bad game.  Both North Carolina and Pittsburgh tallied 7 sacks apiece.  The Syracuse offense has produced exactly one touchdown, and of course it came via the back-up quarterback who connected on play over the top for 69 yards against Pittsburgh. That play accounted for 69 of Syracuse’s 171 total yards for the game.

To make matters worse, the trying times on offense are only somewhat under Babers’ control.  Syracuse entered the preseason knowing its offensive line had razor thin depth.  Before the season started, the Orange lost starters at both guard positions as well as first-off-the-bench key reserves.  Adding to the depth disarray, the Orange lost its first and second string running back to opt-outs before game 1.

Common wisdom in baseball is that you are defined defensively by the strength up the middle (catcher, pitcher, second baseman, shortstop, center field).  In Syracuse terms, they’ve lost 2/3 of their middle from an already challenged personnel group.  As Georgia Tech experienced last year with its own injuries on the offensive line, an offensive coordinator cannot wave a magic wand to make things better.

Speaking of offensive coordinators, Syracuse has a new one in 2020 that will be familiar to Jackets’ fans.  The Orange brought in Sterlin Gilbert, previously the offensive coordinator at USF in 2017 and 2018.  In 2018, the USF Bulls racked up 35 points offensively en route to a 49-38 win over the Jackets in Tampa, FL.  Thus far, the early returns at Syracuse speak for itself, caveats previously noted.

Defense

If transition of scheme on offense wasn’t enough, Syracuse also transitioned to the 3-3-5 defense under new defensive coordinator, Tony White.  White coached defensive backs at Arizona State and was promoted to defensive coordinator in December before making the transition to Syracuse.  Thus far, the returns for the Orange have been surprisingly positive.

Despite the anemic Orange offense, Syracuse entered the 4th quarter of each of its first two games trailing within striking distance.  Against the Tar Heels on the road, the Orange trailed 10-6 entering the fourth.  Against the Panthers, the Orange trailed 21-10, the eventual final score.  Overall, not bad for a defense hung out to dry.

Given Georgia Tech’s turnover woes, it should be noted that the Orange’s best player on defense is junior safety Andre Cisco.  Simply put, Cisco is a ball hawk.  Somehow under the radar out of IMG Academy, Cisco managed to make national All-America teams his freshman year (not the freshman teams, mind you) after leading the NCAA with 7 interceptions.  He was All-ACC Second Team during his sophomore campaign in 2019.  He entered the 2020 season as the FBS Active Leader in interceptions (12) and #2 in passes defended per game (1.27). Thus far in 2020, he’s on the board with 1 pick off of Sam Howell.  He is everywhere on the field.

Special Teams

The Orange enter the game versus Georgia Tech with a decided advantage on special teams.  Based on what Georgia Tech has shown early that may not be saying much, however the comparison is most stark at the field goal kicking position.  Kicker Andre Szmyt, a former walk-on, was the 2018 Lou Groza award winner.  He is 50 for 58 for his career and has connected from over 50 in each of his first two full seasons.

The Orange also have a fairly dynamic punt returner this year in Nykeim Johnson.  At 5’ 8”, his low center of gravity and short area quickness makes him a threat to take it to the house.  He did just that against North Carolina, however the return was called back due to a blindside hit by the Orange return team that had no impact on the outcome of the play.

Keys To The Game

I’ll start by beating the familiar drum.  Turnovers and Special Teams.  If Georgia Tech can limit turnovers, I think the Jackets take this one.  Even with turnovers, it should be possible for Tech to stay in this via solid defensive play.

Of course, the injuries to the Syracuse OL has a doppelganger in Georgia Tech’s DL.  It could be argued that the Jackets will field the weakest defensive line that the Orange have faced thus far.  And you could say without argument that the Orange have a leg up on Special Teams, despite our absolute unit in Pressley Harvin (mandatory weekly shout-out).

Both Syracuse and Georgia Tech enter this game at inflection points.  Both schools, coaches and fanbases likely view this as a moment to keep the season on track.  If not, the result may lead to a spiral effect the other direction.  You never like to play a team with its back against the wall, particularly one playing at home for the first time this season. 

My prediction: Jackets 28-21.  The Jackets also need this win badly.  In the end the Syracuse offense likely remains mostly inept with few ways to overcome their issues in 7 days.  Assuming there is no starting quarterback change in Upstate NY, the Jackets will be facing a statue quarterback who generally runs only to keep defenses honest.  Because of this, even if Georgia Tech turns the ball over, it may require an opportunistic Orange defense to aid its team in the scoring column. 

Recognizing the Orange woes on offense, Collins and Patenaude can call a more conservative gameplan offensively, enabling Sims and the offense to regain its confidence and avoid the volume of unnecessary mistakes that doomed the Jackets this past Saturday. The Jackets will come back to Atlanta undefeated in ACC play and with an opportunity to use a bye week to rest up for its most daunting stretch of the season.

 
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Deleted member 2897

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That 56.5 over is something else. Syracuse averages 8 points per game (even though they were both ranked teams) and is giving up 25.5 per game. We’re averaging 18.5 per game and averaging giving up 31 (yeeesh UCF curve-wrecking game).

TL;DR for this to be nearly an all around push, the score would be something near 32-25 in our favor, which is an offensive outburst for both teams.

To me, the over seems out of whack. Maybe Vegas thinks we can’t play defense.

Also, weird to get favored, even though we were pretty sure it was coming.

We’re putting up 475 yards of offense a week. I don’t think we have another 5 turnovers, so 30 points for us sounds about right. It’s also hard to predict that Syracuse only has 175 yards of offense and 6 points again. I can see a 30-20 type of game.
 

boger2337

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We’re putting up 475 yards of offense a week. I don’t think we have another 5 turnovers, so 30 points for us sounds about right. It’s also hard to predict that Syracuse only has 175 yards of offense and 6 points again. I can see a 30-20 type of game.
This is a chance where we may out up 550+ yards and execute on most drives. We found our kicker in Stewart, and by game 3 we should clean our game. Still may have a turnover or 2, but I think we score 42+ points this week.
 

orientalnc

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Something to the effect of 'It's football. Sometimes you get your butt kicked. Tonight we got our butts kicked.'
Thomas ran for close to 100 yards in the 4th quarter, including a 50 yard TD. Their coach said something like, "It is just not fair to have kind of talent coming in the subs."
 

forensicbuzz

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Glad we have a resident expert on the Orange.

I believe it will be an ugly game if the past two for the teams are repeated. Winner TBD based on who is playing Saturday.

In the COVID era of minimal fan presence, I don't think home field is that much of a difference unless it's weather. Syracuse 10 day forecast has Saturday with sunny weather, high 78 and low 59 F. Hopefully no Syracuse fans are caught napping on camera. But that weather would support a nice afternoon nap if the teams continue as they have.
Syracuse plays in a dome.

Edit: I see someone else beat me to the punch(line). So, Syracuse are (Orange)men; that's one shade away from Yellow Men. Also, apparently, they've dropped the "men" from their name and are now just called The Orange. I guess that tells you all you need to know. Someone took their man-card from them.
 

Sheboygan

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At this point I need to see it to believe it. Redzone play is still abysmal.
I am with you on this one. I wonder if we know how to put an underdog away at this point. They have played one game against an opponent considerably better than us ( UNC) and another against a team better than us ( Pitt ) . Exactly why do some think we will win easily ? Are we past making many of the mistakes we have been making ? As you said, I will have to see it to believe.
 

Scubapro

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Syracuse triples their typical scoring, putting up a massive 18 points.

Georgia Tech 28, Syracuse 18.

Charlie Thomas and Quez Jackson have big days. Ahmarean breaks out again.
I don't know if we can disparage anyone else's offensive scoring. I hope you got the score right.
 

MacJacket

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Their backs are against the wall. They essentially have two - three other games on their schedule that could be wins (Duke, Liberty, and NC State or Wake). I think they'll come out fired up and do everything it takes to get a win against us to get their season back on track. We'll need to play a clean game on offense and score in the red zone to win this game. If we turn it over more than twice, they could beat us.
 

slugboy

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Someone may dig in a bit more than I have, but

1. Syracuse has a good group of safeties. Maybe this isn't the week that we start throwing deep: https://www.espn.com/college-footba...ew-clemson-dominance-continue-else-make-noise.
2. Their offensive line was pretty bad last year, and seems to have been bad against Pitt also. If we can get some health on the defensive line, maybe this is a good week for us: https://www.nunesmagician.com/2020/...ades-vs-pittsburgh-orange-pitt-recap-panthers.
3. Their linebackers (same source) appeared to be really good against Pitt, but had trouble against the run against UNC. We'll need offensive balance.
4. Their secondary has some strong players, but also some players that can be picked apart (https://www.nunesmagician.com/2020/...th-carolina-orange-tar-heels-position-players). They slowed down the passing attack of UNC pretty well according to https://www.nunesmagician.com/2020/...h-carolina-ornge-football-tar-heels-mvp-recap.
5. The middle of the field was vulnerable against Pitt. Both UNC and Pitt picked on Ja'Had Carter.
6. Syracuse fans like their defense, but hate their offense. They hate their playcalling, are down on their QB and wide receivers (some of the good ones are gone after last year), and rate their running backs "ok".
7. They got behind the chains a lot against Pitt. (https://www.nunesmagician.com/2020/...ffense-vs-pittsburgh-acc-orange-panthers-pitt).

For us, the big questions are
1. Do we get some of our defensive linemen back and get more depth there?
2. How do our DBs do against Syracuse's WRs (who I don't think are as strong as UCFs or FSUs)?
3. Do we show up against Syracuse's OL like we did against FSU's non-starters on OL?
3a. Or do we look more like last Saturday?
4. Do we get our Tight Ends back for the red zone this week?
4a. If not, do we have a plan for some extra blocking or some other mismatch in that part of the field?
5. Is Tommy DeVito a bad QB three weeks in a row
6. Do we win the turnover battle?
7. Do we have our field goal kicking unit fixed?
8. Can our linebackers be disruptive this week?
9. Can we block better against Syracuse than we did against UCF?
10. Who else comes off the injury list for us (please)?
11. Can Syracuse steal any ideas successfully from UCF?
11a. Can we fix last week's issues?

[a lot more questions that I expected]

ETA: ESPN lists their 5 best players:
Five best returning players: FS Andre Cisco, K Andre Szmyt, CB Ifeatu Melifonwu, RG Dakota Davis, NB Trill Williams

Ifeatu Melifonwu has been showing out as a player. I'm not sure how he compares to Assante Samuel, but he's been pretty close to a shutdown corner, and their player of the game last week. Other places in the secondary seem more vulnerable.
 
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dmel25

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When your defense gives up 49 points it's a sure indication that you have a porous defense. I think the gamblers figure we will give up at least half that to most anybody we line up against. The good news is they think we will score around the same amount. We still are trying to learn how to win. Not there yet.

Go Jackets!
Our defense also held FSU to only 13 and they have better talent than UCF. The only reason they scored so much is because our defense was gassed at the 4th quarter and they ran their gimmicky fast tempo offense and didn't even let the chains get set before running plays so our defense couldn't keep up after 4 quarters of doing so. Our defense isn't the best, but I wouldn't judge them based on the UCF game.
 
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