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AE 87
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I really like this way of looking at the data. Hey, and I agree with @ATL1.
I like the adjusted score and adjusted record. It gives you a feel for how we did on each side of the ball by normalizing it to an average opponent. Obviously, you want to be 14-0 on the adjusted record, only losing to better teams while still performing well.
We did flip two losses to wins, BYU and georgie, and had no wins flip to losses, though UNC. was close. Beating whom your supposed to beat like you mean it is something I think we've done pretty well at. Both o and d underperformed vs vpi and ole miss and the D against miami and byu.
Our pass D, even with top 25 rush, was abysmal.
I like the adjusted score and adjusted record. It gives you a feel for how we did on each side of the ball by normalizing it to an average opponent. Obviously, you want to be 14-0 on the adjusted record, only losing to better teams while still performing well.
We did flip two losses to wins, BYU and georgie, and had no wins flip to losses, though UNC. was close. Beating whom your supposed to beat like you mean it is something I think we've done pretty well at. Both o and d underperformed vs vpi and ole miss and the D against miami and byu.
Our pass D, even with top 25 rush, was abysmal.
dressedcheeseside
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Depends on who is running it and with what athletes.
Ramblin Wrecker
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...because the national title is won with defense.
alaguy
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wow, detailed analysis to the max
not being able to win one possession games lately tells me -we don't have (1) depth- weak recruiting and losing players,etc and/or (2) talent to make the play and/or (3) good coaching to punch the right buttons ---that we let a crappy vt Off team up there score a TD! in 1 min from their 18 yd line or so speaks to all these
not being able to win one possession games lately tells me -we don't have (1) depth- weak recruiting and losing players,etc and/or (2) talent to make the play and/or (3) good coaching to punch the right buttons ---that we let a crappy vt Off team up there score a TD! in 1 min from their 18 yd line or so speaks to all these
danny daniel
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Yes. Absolutely. It is easily the difference in a 7 win season and a 10+ win. I hope we have fixed number (3). IMO (1) is problem that can be vastly improved and (2) is a tougher problem to fix under our current situation (academics, recruiting, maintaining our ethics, campus invironment, etc) and may continue to limit our wins in one possession games. However, an improved offense with talent that we can recruit could win some of those games for us like in 08/09.
AE 87
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I reckon it measures heart and competitive intensity, a refuse to lose.
Squints
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Or we happen to be in a run of bad luck. When you're talking about one possession games luck can play a factor. It happens.
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I think it's part luck but mostly preparation to be able to take advantage of a situation. A good example is how "lucky" VT STs used to be. But of course I have no way to objectively quantify luck and skill ........
Great article, thanks Longest. The article was very long and detailed. It points out basically what most of us had settled on but with more stats. I think the DL is the biggest vulnerability as we have all discussed. Especially depth on the DL since injuries occur as does just getting tired.
The only thing I would have added was a discussion of our STs (a favorite topic of mine). Of the three phases of the game, ST was our best phase of the game. O was 38th, D was 51st and ST was 22nd. I hope we stay in the top 25 this year with our new ST coach. I kind of think we will since there is still emphasis on that phase of the game (and Butker is a year better
)alaguy
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"real"luck is a thrown ball hitting a pigeon or a ref- NOT a CB unluckily slipping down on a cut so his man is open.
In fact the biggest "sort of" good luck I remember was in the fsu game there in 09? They had TWO guys WIDE open in the EZ and the ball was thrown toward one guy and the other guy knocked his teammate off ball trying to go for it. That was 3rd down and they then missed Fg and we came back to win. (even that was not ALL luck--it could be that the 2 WRs were not coached well enough to be spread apart, our threat of rush influenced a quick QB pass, etc)
in other words--you MAKE your luck
dressedcheeseside
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in other words, you're saying there's no such thing as luck.
swampsting
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I still PJ would go back to the formation he used years ago, putting his best B back at the tail of the I, with an extra tackle and two DTs brought in as the fullback and an offset I-bone back to serve as road graders. He did at Southern with AP at the tail and Voncellies Allen, a 295-pound all-everything DT, as the lead blocker, on short yardage situations.
danny daniel
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I don't know about modern day LUCK, but Bear Bryant was convinced that Bobby Dodd had LUCK. I do believe in breaks in the game such as the way a ball bounces on a kick or fumble, a pass is tipped (Auburn-UGA), or whether a holding or a pass interference penalty is called. My favorite coach made us memorize 10 game winning axioms, the second of which was "play for and make the breaks....when one comes your way SCORE".
forensicbuzz
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That my friend was Nesbitt being Nesbitt.
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Destiny, not luck. As I watched that game, I knew there was no way we were going to lose. Truly one of the greatest games played by JN. He carried the whole team and kicked the crap out of FSU. The only reason FSU scored was that Nesbitt didn't play defense.
Squints
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That's not the kind of luck I'm referring to.
No you don't. Luck is luck. You work to put yourself in a position to succeed. But sometimes **** just happens. That's what I'm talking about. Not players being out of position.
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Whiskey_Clear
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Kinda like Aubies TD reception vs the mutts last year. I'm still laughing about that one.