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Predicting Future Success
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<blockquote data-quote="Randy Carson" data-source="post: 855014" data-attributes="member: 766"><p>This is a football thread, I promise. Just give me a minute to set up my question.</p><p></p><p>I'm not a fan of the one-and-done phenomenon in college basketball. I would rather watch a group of kids develop over four years than to live and die by the revolving door, and I can't believe it is more satisfying to coach one-and-done's than to build a team over a period of several seasons. Do you think Coach K enjoyed coaching Zion more than Johnny Dawkins or Christian Laettner? I don't.</p><p></p><p>So, here's my football question: Which is the greater predictor of a football team's success: the average number of stars each of the players had coming out of high school or the average number of years that the team has been together?</p><p></p><p>I lean toward the idea that a bunch of three- and four-star juniors and seniors will consistently beat a team of four- and five-star freshmen and sophomores - because younger players make more mistakes. And perhaps because Juniors and Seniors have spent more time in the weight room and studying game film.</p><p></p><p>IOW, "get old and stay old" wins over the long haul. Are there any studies on this? Your thoughts?</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Randy Carson, post: 855014, member: 766"] This is a football thread, I promise. Just give me a minute to set up my question. I'm not a fan of the one-and-done phenomenon in college basketball. I would rather watch a group of kids develop over four years than to live and die by the revolving door, and I can't believe it is more satisfying to coach one-and-done's than to build a team over a period of several seasons. Do you think Coach K enjoyed coaching Zion more than Johnny Dawkins or Christian Laettner? I don't. So, here's my football question: Which is the greater predictor of a football team's success: the average number of stars each of the players had coming out of high school or the average number of years that the team has been together? I lean toward the idea that a bunch of three- and four-star juniors and seniors will consistently beat a team of four- and five-star freshmen and sophomores - because younger players make more mistakes. And perhaps because Juniors and Seniors have spent more time in the weight room and studying game film. IOW, "get old and stay old" wins over the long haul. Are there any studies on this? Your thoughts? [/QUOTE]
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