Our rotation going forward

orientalnc

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We have engaged in this tangentially in other threads, but it is clear some of us (maybe all) were clearly off in our predictions about this teams rotation.

Against Pitt CJP started Lammers, Gueye, Alvarado, Okogie, and Alston. Jackson is first off the bench virtually every game. Haywood is starting to get minutes.

Wright and Cole, one which several of us predicted would be starters, hardly get any minutes. Moore is somewhere, but certainly not playing. Obgonda is not getting to play for either health or ability reasons, I am not sure which.

CJP is essentially playing seven guys right now. I don't see that changing. Any thoughts?
 

mstranahan

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Think you’ve got it. We roll with 7. In an emergency we bring Moses in for a minute or two. I still think they will ask for a medical redshirt for Ogbonda, though I don’t think they’ve set that up well
 

YlJacket

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When he is healthy I think Haywood repacked Alston in the starting lineup and minutes

There will be multiple times AD sits and we go small when we are worried about defending the 3
 

slugboy

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I've been scratching my head about Ogbonda--he's MIA this year. I'm not sure what's going on with Ogbonda, but he hasn't played well when he was in. Is he really that badly hurt?

I'm surprised Moses Wright isn't getting more minutes. He seems OK on defense, and we can use that. Cole is still more of a project than I had hoped, and I'm not sure why he's not stronger on defense.
 

YJMD

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Would like to think Moses can develop enough to contribute down the stretch. It's not about ability or talent. Needs to learn how to play with the team and catch up to D1 level of play. Lots of others in the same boat, but he feels the most likely of those not in the rotation now to make the leap.
 

lv20gt

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Would like to think Moses can develop enough to contribute down the stretch. It's not about ability or talent. Needs to learn how to play with the team and catch up to D1 level of play. Lots of others in the same boat, but he feels the most likely of those not in the rotation now to make the leap.

Doubt he or Cole will play much this year from now on. We got up 21-1 and neither got any minutes until garbage time when we weren't even pretending to run an actual offense. It's a decision that will bite us later in the year and next year, but we're going to go small pretty much every time Gueye or Lammers has to come out. Then there will be one game, or more, where Cole or Wright has to play because of injury/foul trouble and they'll not be ready. It is what it is.
 

MWBATL

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I hear what everyone is saying about Moses and Evan, but in the limited action in ACC games, they have both been like AD was early int he season, real liabilities on the floor. How could you responsibly play them meaningful minutes when we have a chance to win an ACC game? Our best chance to win games thus far has been to try to develop them in practice and let our best 7 see the floor during the games. If we lose 6 in a row and the season is effectively over, then I agree with you. But right now we are 3-1 in the ACC and dreaming about an upset Thursday night which would temporarily put us atop league standings.
 

lv20gt

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I hear what everyone is saying about Moses and Evan, but in the limited action in ACC games, they have both been like AD was early int he season, real liabilities on the floor. How could you responsibly play them meaningful minutes when we have a chance to win an ACC game? Our best chance to win games thus far has been to try to develop them in practice and let our best 7 see the floor during the games. If we lose 6 in a row and the season is effectively over, then I agree with you. But right now we are 3-1 in the ACC and dreaming about an upset Thursday night which would temporarily put us atop league standings.


Wait, you mean in the garbage time playing with 4 bigs, without a pg, or without Ben they have looked like liabilities? You don't say. They are no bigger liabilities than Alston or Haywood are when we go small. Nobody is saying that either should be starting or playing that much. Against Pitt there were about 10 minutes prior to garbage time that didn't go to Lammers or Gueye where Wright or Cole should have played instead of going to the small ball lineup which never looks good. The reason we are winning isn't because we go small when Lammers or Gueye comes out. We're winning because we finally adjusted to Gueye's skill set and stopped pretending to still have Q at the PF along with finally getting healthy. The problem is that Gueye is foul prone and teams will start attacking him on defense to try and force us into our small ball lineup which we will be forced to play because Wright and Cole will still have zero experience.

Then there is next year when we will basically have one big and probably hoping a hail mary grad transfer pans out.
 

Bruce Wayne

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I think the regard we have for 7 to 10 on the bench is a very positive development. It makes me think the practices are more competitive and that the scout looks are better than before. That will make the starters and team better overall. Incremental program improvements are being made.
 

GTbball2016

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I hear what everyone is saying about Moses and Evan, but in the limited action in ACC games, they have both been like AD was early int he season, real liabilities on the floor. How could you responsibly play them meaningful minutes when we have a chance to win an ACC game? Our best chance to win games thus far has been to try to develop them in practice and let our best 7 see the floor during the games. If we lose 6 in a row and the season is effectively over, then I agree with you. But right now we are 3-1 in the ACC and dreaming about an upset Thursday night which would temporarily put us atop league standings.

Given the defense I saw Wright play against Coppin St, it scares me to think of him trying to guard an ACC caliber player.
 

orientalnc

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I think the regard we have for 7 to 10 on the bench is a very positive development. It makes me think the practices are more competitive and that the scout looks are better than before. That will make the starters and team better overall. Incremental program improvements are being made.
I appreciate what Lammers said about the scout team. That said, Cole and Wright are not yet ACC level basketball players. I am not sure CGB is either.
 

Bruce Wayne

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I appreciate what Lammers said about the scout team. That said, Cole and Wright are not yet ACC level basketball players. I am not sure CGB is either.
I don't disagree. I am just making the claim that numbers 7-10, or really 7 to 13 from last year compared to 7-16 this year, seems to have improved.

2016/17 the first 7 based on minutes (no order) were: Okogie, Jackson, Lammers, Q, Heyward, Heath, Moore.

The bottom 6 were: Price, McCormick, Matthews, Ogbonda, Rowland, AD.

This season we have a complete roster, with a full complement of walk-ons as well. This means we now have a bottom 9 of: Moore, Phillips (remember he is practicing), Cole, Wright, Ogbonda, Jester, Brown, Rice, and Schafer.
 

orientalnc

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I don't disagree. I am just making the claim that numbers 7-10, or really 7 to 13 from last year compared to 7-16 this year, seems to have improved.

2016/17 the first 7 based on minutes (no order) were: Okogie, Jackson, Lammers, Q, Heyward, Heath, Moore.

The bottom 6 were: Price, McCormick, Matthews, Ogbonda, Rowland, AD.

This season we have a complete roster, with a full complement of walk-ons as well. This means we now have a bottom 9 of: Moore, Phillips (remember he is practicing), Cole, Wright, Ogbonda, Jester, Brown, Rice, and Schafer.
We are an injury away from having to play someone who is not ready for ACC level competition. Seven is the minimum you can play in the ACC and remain competitive in the final minutes. Against Miami only six guys played more than 2 minutes. The same the first time at ND. At home against ND we still only had six guys log more than 12 minutes. It is not about who can play. It's about who CJP thinks he can play and still have a chance to win. Cole and Wright are not the answer. We will see if CBG is the guy. If he is, then we may be OK going forwad.
 

Bruce Wayne

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We are an injury away from having to play someone who is not ready for ACC level competition. Seven is the minimum you can play in the ACC and remain competitive in the final minutes. Against Miami only six guys played more than 2 minutes. The same the first time at ND. At home against ND we still only had six guys log more than 12 minutes. It is not about who can play. It's about who CJP thinks he can play and still have a chance to win. Cole and Wright are not the answer. We will see if CBG is the guy. If he is, then we may be OK going forwad.
Ok. We still don't disagree, I was commenting on the post-7 players compared to last years team as having progressed but you want to focus on the first 7 playing. Which is fair enough given the subject of this thread, I am working on a tangent.

So I may as well switch to your topic, and look at the first 7 last year compared to this year.

Last: Okogie, Jackson, Lammers, Q, Heyward, Heath, Moore.
Current: Okogie, Jackson, Lammers, AD, Alvarado, Alston, Haywood

Okogie, Jackson, Lammers all 1 more year experience in the system = improved.
I don't want to get in the weeds parsing 4-7 so don't take this as exact.
AD for Q = edge to Q (looking like moving to a draw).
Alvarado for Heath = edge to Jose (not huge margin).
Alston for, which one?, Heyward? Edge to Alston.
And Haywood plays and Moore doesn't. Edge to Haywood.

However, the first 7 is probably more close to a draw at this stage of the year, than to a clear edge to current roster. Hence, I can see your looking at the next 3-4 with trepidation. Both rosters would be deeply impacted by an injury.

Next 3-4 up last year: AD and Ogbonda, McCormick and Matthews.
Next up this year: Cole, Wright, Moore and Ogbonda. Given that the latter 2 have been beat out this year, but are still here, isn't that progress?

Overall, I do believe the current bottom nine are better for the program than the bottom six of last year. Hence, that is where I have been hanging my optimism cap on to claim incremental progress has been made.
 

orientalnc

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Ok. We still don't disagree, I was commenting on the post-7 players compared to last years team as having progressed but you want to focus on the first 7 playing. Which is fair enough given the subject of this thread, I am working on a tangent.

So I may as well switch to your topic, and look at the first 7 last year compared to this year.

Last: Okogie, Jackson, Lammers, Q, Heyward, Heath, Moore.
Current: Okogie, Jackson, Lammers, AD, Alvarado, Alston, Haywood

Okogie, Jackson, Lammers all 1 more year experience in the system = improved.
I don't want to get in the weeds parsing 4-7 so don't take this as exact.
AD for Q = edge to Q (looking like moving to a draw).
Alvarado for Heath = edge to Jose (not huge margin).
Alston for, which one?, Heyward? Edge to Alston.
And Haywood plays and Moore doesn't. Edge to Haywood.

However, the first 7 is probably more close to a draw at this stage of the year, than to a clear edge to current roster. Hence, I can see your looking at the next 3-4 with trepidation. Both rosters would be deeply impacted by an injury.

Next 3-4 up last year: AD and Ogbonda, McCormick and Matthews.
Next up this year: Cole, Wright, Moore and Ogbonda. Given that the latter 2 have been beat out this year, but are still here, isn't that progress?

Overall, I do believe the current bottom nine are better for the program than the bottom six of last year. Hence, that is where I have been hanging my optimism cap on to claim incremental progress has been made.
I don't think we disagree at all. My position is that we are on the edge. And we were last year, as well. How long can we live that way?
 

Bruce Wayne

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I don't think we disagree at all. My position is that we are on the edge. And we were last year, as well. How long can we live that way?
Hopefully, this one last season.

Could you imagine a serious injury to Lammers or Okogie last season? And what if we had both of them healthy, and eligible for all of this season. How different would our outlook be on the state of the program and the razor's edge of depth?
 

wreckrod

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I don't think we disagree at all. My position is that we are on the edge. And we were last year, as well. How long can we live that way?

So would you rather lose games now in order to give minutes to Wright and/or Cole? Cause those are basically the options. Play to win, or give guys who aren't ready floor time.

I get that maybe Wright and Cole could get a bit more playing time here and there, but if you feel ok playing them then you gotta give your walkons floor time and keep them motivated too. The issue is like you say - one injury and one of those guys is next man up. But I think you have to play to win first, keep overall team chemistry and energy up second, and develop your backups after that.

With the way the team is developing right now we are dangerous to anyone who comes to Atlanta, and aren't going to roll over on the road. Even if you want to say the likelihood is small, you gotta play like you can win a bunch of ACC games right now, not next year.
 

lv20gt

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So would you rather lose games now in order to give minutes to Wright and/or Cole? Cause those are basically the options. Play to win, or give guys who aren't ready floor time.

Us winning isn't because we go small ball when Gueye goes out and our chances wouldn't go down any giving them those 10-15 minutes instead of having Alston or Haywood standing aimlessly on the perimeter.
 
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