The Coastal schedule is interesting.
Duke's toughest part is the middle of the schedule: UNC, Miami, UVA, FSU, Pitt, and VT all in a row with no open dates. They won't survive that. Then they will be whipped by Army the week before they face us.
Miami will have lost to FSU, but in all likelihood will be 4-1 with wins over 3 cupcakes when we come to town. Richt will have them pointing to our game, but the meat of their schedule is the last half. I don't think the Coastal will be decided by this game in mid October. The winner of this game will have many opportunities after that to stumble.
UNC plays us the week after they play Duke in late September. That one point loss to Duke last year must still sting, and they won't be looking past them to us. A loss to Duke and they are flat as a pancake coming into our game. I think Louisville against the UNC defense the second week of the season my demoralize them early. They have Duke, GT, ND, UVA, VT, and Miami in a six week period, but 4 of those are at home. Hope we catch them flat after Duke (win or lose) and start their death spiral.
Pitt has Penn State and Oklahoma State the two weeks before they come to Atlanta in late September for both teams first conference game. After us, the middle of the schedule looks soft. Closing out the season with UNC, VT, and Miami means they better have a solid lead in the Coastal by the first of November if they want to go to Charlotte.
UVA gets their open date out of the way in September and then closes out the season with 8 straight conference games (we are the fifth game). That streak means they will just be spoilers in the Coastal, but we might be the spoilee as we don't seem to play well up there, and it is the week after the Clemson game for us. Double secret nuclear powered trap game if we are coming off a win at Clemson.
We are near the end of the season for VT. West Virginia, East Carolina, and Clemson in the first half might end their season before VT gets to their first Coastal game on October 21st. I like they are at Miami the week before they come to Atlanta.
For Georgia Tech, we have a chance to build some momentum early if we beat UT. We can be 3-0 with Pitt and UNC then coming to Atlanta. Next is an open date and then Miami on a Thursday night. But that starts a 7 game stretch (6 ACC and uga) that I can't, even with my most gold tinted glasses, view sanguinely. The good news is that VT also plays Clemson, and Miami plays FSU. If it comes down to VT, Miami, and GT in the Coastal, at least our out of Division schedules are comparable.
In summation, I see the dynamics of the schedule eliminating UVA/Duke, and putting UNC/Pitt at a significant disadvantage. Pitt, Duke, and UNC each play nine games before their open date. Will they have the depth to handle that? Of GT/VT/Miami, VT might have the schedule advantage. They don't play a division game until week 8. All their rivals' tendencies and weaknesses will have been revealed by then. VT has a lot of slots to fill on offense and they have the entire first half of the season to work out the kinks. Even if they should lose to WV, ECU, and Clemson, they will most likely still be in control of their destiny on November 1st. Their toughest nut to crack will be Miami and GT back to back on the road in early November. We get a little luck by being the second of those games. And we beat a better turkey team on the road last year with essentially the same team we will use to beat them in Atlanta this year. Schedule favorability is something good, but it is not decisive.
So it's us or Miami. If Miami takes us, it will be hard to catch them with Clemson and VT still left on our schedule. But in our favor, we have Miami and Richt's history for choking late. Things sure have been quiet in Miami this off season. Has the Reverend turned them into choir boys? I think not. Summer's coming and you know they are just dying to party.