Stats Offense & Defense Efficiency under CPJ

[AE 87]

I think footballoutsiders.com may have changed their formulas so I’m just posting rankings rather than the stat itself. I also included my points/drive vs pwr5 (or BCS AQ) rankings for comparison.

You can get more information about football outsiders statistics on their site, but here’s the basics: S&P+ primarily measures per-play efficiency (progress toward 1st down), and FEI (like PPD) primarily measures per-possession efficiency. Their stats are adjusted for opponent strength.

*** Just a note of clarification: The PPD and FEI should be comparable since they both focus on scoring efficiency. However, I only measure ppd for teams playing more than 2 pwr5 opponents so once you get below average, FEI will include a lot more non-pwr5 teams than are ranked by my stat.

 

[AE 87]

It seems to me that a comparison of these stats provides a helpful portrait of the team (if I understand them correctly). For example, it seems that most years our O is much better in FEI than S&P+, suggesting that we often score with big plays rather than just ball-control. Interestingly, the opposite seems true some years on D, where our scoring D is worse than our down-to-down D.

I also think that this table may contribute to our recent discussion of QBs. JN (2009) and JT (2014) certainly had the best years, but their other years weren’t that great. However, if we look at TW’s years (2011-2012), we see a solid offense, where drive success seems to match play success, perhaps less dependent on a big play.

What do all yall think?

 

[Novajacket]

I agree. You realize during the TW years our D was so bad that I think he didn't get the credit he deserved. One nice thing is to see last few years defense generally trending up. With the recruits coming in feel good about D and future. Though we need to recruit more Def Line.

 

[stech81]

TW was a very good QB who missed very few reads.

 

[Fatmike91]

From 2014:

http://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/20...on-course-to-break-ncaa-efficiency-rating-fei

Claimed that: "Georgia Tech is not only leading the offensive rankings here, they are currently on pace to SMASH the previously held record by RGIII's 2011 Baylor team. GT's current score of ".968" is over a tenth higher than the previous record of ".865" In fact, since 2007, when the rating system started, GT is only the 10th team to break ".700" and only 5th to break ".800"


So what am I missing? Did the metrics change?

/

 

[AE 87]

From 2014:

http://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/20...on-course-to-break-ncaa-efficiency-rating-fei

Claimed that: "Georgia Tech is not only leading the offensive rankings here, they are currently on pace to SMASH the previously held record by RGIII's 2011 Baylor team. GT's current score of ".968" is over a tenth higher than the previous record of ".865" In fact, since 2007, when the rating system started, GT is only the 10th team to break ".700" and only 5th to break ".800"


So what am I missing? Did the metrics change?

/

Yeah, they changed their calculation somehow.