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My mid-term election forecast

Discussion in 'The Swarm Lounge' started by grandpa jacket, Nov 6, 2018.

  1. grandpa jacket

    grandpa jacket Helluva Engineer

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    Republicans pick up 1 Senate seat, Democrats pick up 32 house seats and take over the House
     
  2. GT_05

    GT_05 Helluva Engineer

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    Republicans pick up 4 Senate seats and Democrats will pick up 24 House seats.


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  3. bwelbo

    bwelbo Helluva Engineer

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    This will be a great case study for the polling companies. When you have so many more people voting than usually vote, all their existing polls go right out the window. Because the only reliable polls are those that account for who usually votes (ie if you ask some Alabama dude who he likes and he says Trump, but he hasn't voted in 30 years, you would not be smart to include that in your polling).

    So because of that, I can't really make a prediction. Democrats could win 3 Senate seats and 50 House seats, Republicans could win 5 seats in the Senate and 10 seats in the House, or anything in between. I live in an extremely conservative district, and the early vote and voting volumes today are running double the normal. Are those all a bunch of Democrats who don't usually vote in our red district, or is it more Republicans coming out? The fact is you can't predict it and you can't know until the votes come in.

    If you take Nate Silver and the main polls, and you look at how they're usually wrong, then it would predict Republicans to pick up 3 Senate seats and to hang onto about a 5 seat majority in the House.

    I was telling my 12 year old who went with us to vote today, that huge turnout is a great thing for the country, because it legitimizes everything. In other words, if you don't want more taxes to pay for better roads, but you know that most people voted for it, its a different feeling than if the local government just raised taxes on their own to do it without anybody's approval...or if only 15% of the population voted for it and 12% against.
     
    Last edited: Nov 6, 2018
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  4. MikeJackets1967

    MikeJackets1967 Helluva Engineer

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    I think the Republicans will gain 4-5 seats in the Senate and keep control of the House of Representatives by around 15 seats.:cool::cigar:
     
  5. herb

    herb Helluva Engineer

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    Red or Blue, Cuz or Bloods, it just don't matter . . . just vote today.
     
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  6. MWBATL

    MWBATL Helluva Engineer

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    A young black male wearing a MAGA hat was told he could not vote if he insisted on keeping his hat on. Polling folks called Atlanta police who made him go outside. I don’t know what happened to him after that. He was pretty adamant that he had a right to wear the hat. No anger or fisticuffs. But definitely unusual and noticed by all the rest of us. I just wish I had thought to video the whole thing.
    Ps-John Lewis’disyrict, if that matters (and I don’t think it does)
     
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  7. WreckinGT

    WreckinGT Helluva Engineer

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    This would be pretty close to my prediction. I also predict that Stacey Abrams has no chance at all because voting in black neighborhoods takes 4 hours for some unknown(lol) reason.
     
  8. GT_05

    GT_05 Helluva Engineer

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    I guess they considered that campaigning within X number of feet. I’d tend to agree.


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  9. MikeJackets1967

    MikeJackets1967 Helluva Engineer

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    I'm glad that i voted last week:cigar:
     
  10. MWBATL

    MWBATL Helluva Engineer

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    Apparently it is allowed. An investigator from Ga Sec of State office has already been in touch with me about it

    It appears since Trump is not on the ballot, it is not campaigning
     
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  11. GT_05

    GT_05 Helluva Engineer

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    That’s interesting. It looks like this MAGA hat situation has happened in several states. There are also discussions going on about things like #metoo pins and rainbow flags.

    https://www.denverpost.com/2018/02/28/supreme-court-political-clothing-at-polling-stations/amp/


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  12. ilovetheoption

    ilovetheoption Helluva Engineer

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    FULLY agreed here. Well said!

    Plus if more people vote, then more normal people are voting. In midterms, it's only the most motivated who come out, which means you just get the weirdos on either fringe, so your average person who isn't either an antifa activist or a maga hat wearing idiot doesn't get their voice heard.
     
  13. AE 87

    AE 87 Helluva Engineer

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    Wait. You want more normal people voting, but you think MAGA-hat-wearing folk are idiots? ... You may want to take a couple shots of bourbon and watch a Trump rally.
     
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  14. LibertyTurns

    LibertyTurns Helluva Engineer

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    Not surprised by your last sentence- terrorists are labeled activists, guy sporting a hat supporting his favorite politician labeled an idiot. Activist vs idiot, wonder which term is positive and which one is negative? We wonder why the electorate is confused.
     
  15. AE 87

    AE 87 Helluva Engineer

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    Is there any chance he'll realize that he's been gaslighted his whole life?

    Your post might do it.
     
  16. ilovetheoption

    ilovetheoption Helluva Engineer

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    Both are negative. I'm fine calling Antifa idiots idiots. I'll edit my post if it will spare your feelings

    *edit* can't edit.
     
  17. ilovetheoption

    ilovetheoption Helluva Engineer

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    For the record, I've voted Republican most of my life. I'm just appalled by the party's turn toward the willful stupidity that began right around the time Sarah Palin walked on stage with John McCain and has continued unabated right up until today.

    The party has gone from being about solid economics and personal freedom to dimwitted sloganeering and a platform of fearmongering and no ideas.
     
  18. LibertyTurns

    LibertyTurns Helluva Engineer

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    You didn’t hurt my feelings. I was merely pointing out the fact that it has become fashionable to refer to ANTIFA & their ilk in positive terms, ie activist when in fact they’re essentially an affiliation among radical left wing violent anarchists & terrorists. You chose to paint someone who is nowhere near equal in the degree of radicalism in a more negative term.

    It’s ok man. You’ve been unwittingly socialized to think there’s some sort of moral equivalency there and that’s the point you clearly missed.
     
  19. Jophish17

    Jophish17 Helluva Engineer

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    I’ll co-sign this. Hope the GOP figures out a better way. I consider voting Democrat or other a strategic play to the long-term survival of the GOP.
     
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  20. LibertyTurns

    LibertyTurns Helluva Engineer

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    Look Libertarian my good man. You may be surprised by what you find.
     
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