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<blockquote data-quote="GTNavyNuke" data-source="post: 69189" data-attributes="member: 322"><p>Vegas sets the initial line based on where they think the betting will be even on both sides. Then the bets starts flowing in and the line is adjusted to keep the bets about 50%. With the 10% vigorish, there is no better way to do it.</p><p></p><p>But I don't think they try to "attract" bets by setting lines that they think will be off the 50/50 line. To do so would be a money loser unless they are smarter than the overall bettor pool. It's their business and they could care less whether team A beats team B, only that they maximize the bets that are balanced and they get their 10% on a larger pool.</p><p></p><p>This site tracks many of the different prediction services and the Vegas line. You have to pay a lot for some of these services. Here in 2013, just the Vegas line itself was fourth best record. <a href="http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaresults.php?year=13" target="_blank">http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaresults.php?year=13</a> ANd when I looked at previous years, it seems the line or updated line was consistently the best. Sure some years like last year there were three services which were better. But going back, those services weren't as good ...... the Vegas line is the most reliable because they balance the bets and it reflects the latest information including injuries.</p><p></p><p>I'll be happy with 8-4 and go all the way to frigging ecstatic at 15-0. I know I'm ready for the season to start. <img src="/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/thumbsup.png" class="smilie" loading="lazy" alt="(y)" title="Thumbs Up (y)" data-shortname="(y)" /> And I won't worry about the "quality" of the wins as much as the Power Ranking and national ranking we end up with.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="GTNavyNuke, post: 69189, member: 322"] Vegas sets the initial line based on where they think the betting will be even on both sides. Then the bets starts flowing in and the line is adjusted to keep the bets about 50%. With the 10% vigorish, there is no better way to do it. But I don't think they try to "attract" bets by setting lines that they think will be off the 50/50 line. To do so would be a money loser unless they are smarter than the overall bettor pool. It's their business and they could care less whether team A beats team B, only that they maximize the bets that are balanced and they get their 10% on a larger pool. This site tracks many of the different prediction services and the Vegas line. You have to pay a lot for some of these services. Here in 2013, just the Vegas line itself was fourth best record. [url]http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaresults.php?year=13[/url] ANd when I looked at previous years, it seems the line or updated line was consistently the best. Sure some years like last year there were three services which were better. But going back, those services weren't as good ...... the Vegas line is the most reliable because they balance the bets and it reflects the latest information including injuries. I'll be happy with 8-4 and go all the way to frigging ecstatic at 15-0. I know I'm ready for the season to start. (y) And I won't worry about the "quality" of the wins as much as the Power Ranking and national ranking we end up with. [/QUOTE]
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