Miami Baseball

[FredJacket]

I couldn't agree more.
Not neccessarily about Miami but it is very impressive to win 4 straight acc series. Last time i remember that happening was the 2019 team that had great pitching and ended up being the overall #3 national seed.

The consistency is what is impressive.

I'd also point out that ND took the series vs Wake Forest and Louisville nearly took the series vs Clemson.
The acc is very tough conference despite what the media will tell you.

The ACC is very good. Their problem and ultimate downfall in the post-season will be pitching.

Just comparing the SEC...
ERA: There are 3 SEC teams in top 10 nationally & 6 in the top 25. ACC has none in top 10 & 3 in top 25. Clemson is highest (14th).
K/BB: SEC has 4 in top 10 & 6 in top 15. FSU is highest ACC team at 29th.
WHIP: SEC has 4 in top 10 & 7 in top 25. Clemson and Duke are tied for 20th.

NCAA Statistics

stats.ncaa.org

 

[MWBATL]

The ACC is very good. Their problem and ultimate downfall in the post-season will be pitching.

Just comparing the SEC...
ERA: There are 3 SEC teams in top 10 nationally & 6 in the top 25. ACC has none in top 10 & 3 in top 25. Clemson is highest (14th).
K/BB: SEC has 4 in top 10 & 6 in top 15. FSU is highest ACC team at 29th.
WHIP: SEC has 4 in top 10 & 7 in top 25. Clemson and Duke are tied for 20th.

NCAA Statistics

stats.ncaa.org

I'd be very interested to see conference only stats....the SEC usually plays much weaker OOC games.

 

[MWBATL]

I'd be very interested to see conference only stats....the SEC usually plays much weaker OOC games.

So, I decided to go look for myself. There are 5 SEC teams with ERA's below 5...and their are 3 ACC teams with ERA's below 5 (ALL Data Conference Games ONLY)
Overall SEC ERA is 5.83. Overall ACC ERA is 6.27

Overall WHIP are 1.51 for the SEC vs 1.62 for the ACC.

Fielding % are nearly identical...0.977 for SEC and 0.974 for ACC.

So, after this further review, I must agree the SEC seems stronger in pitching. (Or are they weaker in hitting?) But the picture isn't quite as bad as the overall stats indicate.

 

[FredJacket]

So, I decided to go look for myself. There are 5 SEC teams with ERA's below 5...and their are 3 ACC teams with ERA's below 5 (ALL Data Conference Games ONLY)
Overall SEC ERA is 5.83. Overall ACC ERA is 6.27

Overall WHIP are 1.51 for the SEC vs 1.62 for the ACC.

Fielding % are nearly identical...0.977 for SEC and 0.974 for ACC.

So, after this further review, I must agree the SEC seems stronger in pitching. (Or are they weaker in hitting?) But the picture isn't quite as bad as the overall stats indicate.

Good info. I wasn't really attempting to compare the conferences (overall) that way. I believe SEC teams will fair much better in post-season than the ACC. Fair better... meaning more teams through each weekend & rep'ed in Omaha. And pitching will be the difference. I could be wrong though.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

A from me because you are correct. I've never thought about it that way, but you are absolutely correct, we just treaded water. And, on top of that, I bet the 50% that is opponent's win % took a hit since Miami's adjusted record is 15.1-24. So, probably not a great weekend for the ole RPI. I think, in general though, it was good for our NCAA chances cause it put us a game above .500. On the flip side, with 6 of the last 11 games remaining being on the road, that should help, especially if we can win 3 of those.

Here's a positive spin on our RPI and why we'll most likely end up above our current 53.

Since our remaining weekend series opponents have such high RPI and we get 75% of their or their opponents RPI, well get a big bump from the weak teams we played to start the year as these last three series are included. @Clempy 4 RPI - so we can win between 0 and 3.9 games there, #10 Duke - we can win 0 to 2.1 there, #7 @FSU we can win 0 to 3.9 there. Warren Nolan predicts us winning 7 of those games and our RPI rises to 50. Win more and it goes up more.

I like the RPI since it is stable and understandable. It is terribly flawed but so is life which I prefer to the alternatives. We just need to schedule better OOC.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

The ACC is very good. Their problem and ultimate downfall in the post-season will be pitching.

Just comparing the SEC...
ERA: There are 3 SEC teams in top 10 nationally & 6 in the top 25. ACC has none in top 10 & 3 in top 25. Clemson is highest (14th).
K/BB: SEC has 4 in top 10 & 6 in top 15. FSU is highest ACC team at 29th.
WHIP: SEC has 4 in top 10 & 7 in top 25. Clemson and Duke are tied for 20th.

NCAA Statistics

stats.ncaa.org

So since pitching is so important in tournament play and the SEC is better, are you are arguing that the SEC is better than the rankings below and thus the rankings are biased for the ACC? (I kid sort of.)

Or that the rankings are based on any one game of three game series and not an extended tournament format?

 

[FredJacket]

So since pitching is so important in tournament play and the SEC is better, are you are arguing that the SEC is better than the rankings below and thus the rankings are biased for the ACC? (I kid sort of.)

Or that the rankings are based on any one game of three game series and not an extended tournament format?

View attachment 16076

I'm not making any comparison top to bottom. I'm making no judgment on most of the 28 SEC/ACC teams..

Of the relevant top few teams in each conference, the pitching for those SEC teams bodes very well for them in the tournament. Other things could come into play... but those top 4 ish SEC teams are in better position to go deep in the tournament than the ACC teams. I expect the ACC to be represented at the CWS... but I expect the SEC to have more teams there.

Is what I'm suggesting controversial?

 

[GT33]

Here's a positive spin on our RPI and why we'll most likely end up above our current 53.

Since our remaining weekend series opponents have such high RPI and we get 75% of their or their opponents RPI, well get a big bump from the weak teams we played to start the year as these last three series are included. @Clempy 4 RPI - so we can win between 0 and 3.9 games there, #10 Duke - we can win 0 to 2.1 there, #7 @FSU we can win 0 to 3.9 there. Warren Nolan predicts us winning 7 of those games and our RPI rises to 50. Win more and it goes up more.

I like the RPI since it is stable and understandable. It is terribly flawed but so is life which I prefer to the alternatives. We just need to schedule better OOC.

He's predicting us to win 7 of 9 games against Clemp, dook and fsu? That's a pretty ballsy prediction 7-2 against 3 highly ranked teams, 2 of which are on the road. Despite all that our RPI only goes from 53 to 50?

 

[78pike]

So, I decided to go look for myself. There are 5 SEC teams with ERA's below 5...and their are 3 ACC teams with ERA's below 5 (ALL Data Conference Games ONLY)
Overall SEC ERA is 5.83. Overall ACC ERA is 6.27

Overall WHIP are 1.51 for the SEC vs 1.62 for the ACC.

Fielding % are nearly identical...0.977 for SEC and 0.974 for ACC.

So, after this further review, I must agree the SEC seems stronger in pitching. (Or are they weaker in hitting?) But the picture isn't quite as bad as the overall stats indicate.

You get what you pay for.

 

[FittedJacket]

He's predicting us to win 7 of 9 games against Clemp, dook and fsu? That's a pretty ballsy prediction 7-2 against 3 highly ranked teams, 2 of which are on the road. Despite all that our RPI only goes from 53 to 50?

I agree those are high value wins. I would think if we win those series we are inside of the top 40 and we would have a winning ACC record.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

He's predicting us to win 7 of 9 games against Clemp, dook and fsu? That's a pretty ballsy prediction 7-2 against 3 highly ranked teams, 2 of which are on the road. Despite all that our RPI only goes from 53 to 50?

Ooops losing 7 of the 9. Us only winning 2. Last night it was one versus Clempy and one versus FSU. How we get swept at home by a lower RPI Duke is beyond me.

This morning it's we still win only two but 1 @ Clempy and 1 versus Duke (0 versus @FSU). That is more realistic. And our predicted RPI is 45. Remember that 75% of our RPI is tied up in other teams, so the RPI is very dependent on how they guess the other 300 teams are going to do.

Purpose of discussion is that even if we only win 2, the math will have our RPI improve due to better teams we are playing.

Predicting individual games is impossible to do accurately. Give me a reliable model which shows us scoring 1 ER in 9.0 innings in one game and 15 ER in 6.0 in another game against the same team in the same place. I like Warren Nolan since it is more comparative than absolute in seeing how the RPI responds and great source of past data. It is worth a bit more than what we pay for it (nothing), but I wouldn't subscribe.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I'm not making any comparison top to bottom. I'm making no judgment on most of the 28 SEC/ACC teams..

Of the relevant top few teams in each conference, the pitching for those SEC teams bodes very well for them in the tournament. Other things could come into play... but those top 4 ish SEC teams are in better position to go deep in the tournament than the ACC teams. I expect the ACC to be represented at the CWS... but I expect the SEC to have more teams there.

Is what I'm suggesting controversial?

Not controversial. I did have the (I kid sort of) in there.

What you point out I agree with, pitching is what wins the NCAAs and tournaments usually. We've seen that way too much.