Mercer

[Techcaster572]

Mercer game canceled for tonight due to weather

 

[Techcaster572]

I feel the cancellation doesn’t necessarily hurt us as the downside was big vs the upside being relatively small.

I think if you take one in tally, you should be good regarding a bid.

FYI- another tournament projection came out that had us as a 3 seed in a Miss State (14) regional

 

[78pike]

I don't know why anyone even bothers with tournament projections at this point. Might as well throw all the teams in a bag and draw your regions. There is still an entire weekend of games plus a midweek game for some to be followed by conference tournaments. So much can change between now and when the selections are made. Of course the committee already has the 12 SEC teams selected that will make it. It's just the rest of the field that's up in the air. But basically someone's dog could pick seedings about as well as any of these so called experts with their projections.

 

[Techcaster572]

I don't know why anyone even bothers with tournament projections at this point. Might as well throw all the teams in a bag and draw your regions. There is still an entire weekend of games plus a midweek game for some to be followed by conference tournaments. So much can change between now and when the selections are made. Of course the committee already has the 12 SEC teams selected that will make it. It's just the rest of the field that's up in the air. But basically someone's dog could pick seedings about as well as any of these so called experts with their projections.

Agreed

It’s not the end all be all however it gives another assessment that if tech wins 1 of 3 or even wins the series in Tallahassee, they are very likely to be in.

Where they go and what seed I could care less.

Just want tech to get a bid

D1 baseball chat had concerns with tech’s rpi but felt good about a bid.

I think barring getting swept in Tally, I think tech is in

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I don't know why anyone even bothers with tournament projections at this point. Might as well throw all the teams in a bag and draw your regions. There is still an entire weekend of games plus a midweek game for some to be followed by conference tournaments. So much can change between now and when the selections are made. Of course the committee already has the 12 SEC teams selected that will make it. It's just the rest of the field that's up in the air. But basically someone's dog could pick seedings about as well as any of these so called experts with their projections.

Agree with silliness of us about tournament projections with a week plus ACCT to play. Glad we don't play tonight for the team with limited upside. (I'll be able to catch up on the Giro.)

I recognize the hyperbole on the 12 SEC teams, but might as well feed the conspiracy stuff. The SEC once agains has the highest RPI - but that measure is blind except to the extent of competence in selecting and beating your opponents.

 

[gtbeak]

Agree with silliness of us about tournament projections with a week plus ACCT to play. Glad we don't play tonight for the team with limited upside. (I'll be able to catch up on the Giro.)

I recognize the hyperbole on the 12 SEC teams, but might as well feed the conspiracy stuff. The SEC once agains has the highest RPI - but that measure is blind except to the extent of competence in selecting and beating your opponents.

If we're being serious (not sure we are), the SEC will not get 12 teams into the NCAA tournament. Auburn and Missouri have already sealed their fate, and it is unlikely that Florida makes it due to overall record not above .500. LSU and Ole Miss play this weekend, and unless they can figure out a way for both teams to win the loser is unlikely to make the NCAA. They will likely get 10 in, which I think would tie their record.

 

[FredJacket]

If we're being serious (not sure we are), the SEC will not get 12 teams into the NCAA tournament. Auburn and Missouri have already sealed their fate, and it is unlikely that Florida makes it due to overall record not above .500. LSU and Ole Miss play this weekend, and unless they can figure out a way for both teams to win the loser is unlikely to make the NCAA.

D1 guys were discussing this yesterday. They were acknowledging there is no way all 4 of Vandy, LSU, Ole Miss & Florida get in. And they identified a "doomsday" scenario where they beat each other up this weekend & in Hoover & only 1 or 2 of those make it.

 

[Richland County]

I feel the cancellation doesn’t necessarily hurt us as the downside was big vs the upside being relatively small.

I think if you take one in tally, you should be good regarding a bid.

FYI- another tournament projection came out that had us as a 3 seed in a Miss State (14) regional

I was listening to a podcast that predicted several games like this would find a way to be canceled. Game has a negative effect on rpi either way. Weather seemed to be the saving grace.

 

[gtbeak]

I was listening to a podcast that predicted several games like this would find a way to be canceled. Game has a negative effect on rpi either way. Weather seemed to be the saving grace.

Our coaching staff played this one very well. The weather tonight is quite nice, and I miss being able to enjoy the game, but there was very little to gain and a lot to lose by playing and they used the weather forecast to their advantage.

 

[Techcaster572]

I was listening to a podcast that predicted several games like this would find a way to be canceled. Game has a negative effect on rpi either way. Weather seemed to be the saving grace.

Yeah with the rpi calculations, playing midweek games are a waste of time and can only hurt

I say let’s just schedule A&M, Arkansas, East Carolina on midweek games on the road from here on out

 

[78pike]

Agree with silliness of us about tournament projections with a week plus ACCT to play. Glad we don't play tonight for the team with limited upside. (I'll be able to catch up on the Giro.)

I recognize the hyperbole on the 12 SEC teams, but might as well feed the conspiracy stuff. The SEC once agains has the highest RPI - but that measure is blind except to the extent of competence in selecting and beating your opponents.

Yeah the 12 team SEC bids was tongue in cheek but at the same time isn't RPI, to some extent, a self fulfilling prophecy? Like the football rankings. If your teams start the season all ranked in the top 15 or so and then spend the season beating up on each other then your RPI doesn't take that big of a beating. As an example I was watching the softball seedings the other night and they were comparing head to head Duke, who ended up seeded 10th to Missouri I think, who they seeded in the top 8 which will get you a super regional host if you win your regional. When asked why Duke wasn't seeded higher the committee member rolled out the old RPI argument. When comparing the two teams Duke was far better than Missouri in every single metric except that Missouri played more top 25 RPI games. They only ended up 13-13 in those games while Duke was something like 12-4. Duke had a much better win/loss record. Duke was the regular season winner and the tournament winner. Missouri didn't win either of those. The lone metric that gave Missouri the nod was the number of top 25 RPI games played. It didn't matter that they lost as many as they won.

So in this case, RPI was the ONLY thing that mattered. I thought that RPI was only supposed to be one of several different criteria to be considered. What it really is, is a means to justify any result that the committee wants.

 

[Techcaster572]

Yeah the 12 team SEC bids was tongue in cheek but at the same time isn't RPI, to some extent, a self fulfilling prophecy? Like the football rankings. If your teams start the season all ranked in the top 15 or so and then spend the season beating up on each other then your RPI doesn't take that big of a beating. As an example I was watching the softball seedings the other night and they were comparing head to head Duke, who ended up seeded 10th to Missouri I think, who they seeded in the top 8 which will get you a super regional host if you win your regional. When asked why Duke wasn't seeded higher the committee member rolled out the old RPI argument. When comparing the two teams Duke was far better than Missouri in every single metric except that Missouri played more top 25 RPI games. They only ended up 13-13 in those games while Duke was something like 12-4. Duke had a much better win/loss record. Duke was the regular season winner and the tournament winner. Missouri didn't win either of those. The lone metric that gave Missouri the nod was the number of top 25 RPI games played. It didn't matter that they lost as many as they won.

So in this case, RPI was the ONLY thing that mattered. I thought that RPI was only supposed to be one of several different criteria to be considered. What it really is, is a means to justify any result that the committee wants.

Absolutely nailed it

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Yeah the 12 team SEC bids was tongue in cheek but at the same time isn't RPI, to some extent, a self fulfilling prophecy? Like the football rankings. If your teams start the season all ranked in the top 15 or so and then spend the season beating up on each other then your RPI doesn't take that big of a beating. As an example I was watching the softball seedings the other night and they were comparing head to head Duke, who ended up seeded 10th to Missouri I think, who they seeded in the top 8 which will get you a super regional host if you win your regional. When asked why Duke wasn't seeded higher the committee member rolled out the old RPI argument. When comparing the two teams Duke was far better than Missouri in every single metric except that Missouri played more top 25 RPI games. They only ended up 13-13 in those games while Duke was something like 12-4. Duke had a much better win/loss record. Duke was the regular season winner and the tournament winner. Missouri didn't win either of those. The lone metric that gave Missouri the nod was the number of top 25 RPI games played. It didn't matter that they lost as many as they won.

So in this case, RPI was the ONLY thing that mattered. I thought that RPI was only supposed to be one of several different criteria to be considered. What it really is, is a means to justify any result that the committee wants.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong (again), but RPI is only based on this season's games and stats. The SEC just wins more OOC games and apparently their Opponents Winning % and Opponents Opponents Winning % are high enough that the SEC RPI is higher than the ACCs.

The SEC clearly won more OOC games. We didn't help the ACC cause at all.

I don't like the fact that the SEC has won a higher % OOC and is spending more in NIL in baseball (LSU and others I think but don't have facts to prove that given the non-transparent nature of NIL). I think the SEC is spending more in most other sports too. IIWII

 

[FredJacket]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong (again), but RPI is only based on this season's games and stats. The SEC just wins more OOC games and apparently their Opponents Winning % and Opponents Opponents Winning % are high enough that the SEC RPI is higher than the ACCs.

The SEC clearly won more OOC games. We didn't help the ACC cause at all.

I don't like the fact that the SEC has won a higher % OOC and is spending more in NIL in baseball (LSU and others I think but don't have facts to prove that given the non-transparent nature of NIL). I think the SEC is spending more in most other sports too. IIWII

View attachment 16162

You are correct. Everyone is tied at start of season in the RPI. If a team has a high RPI... it's 75% because they played (didn't necessarily beat) teams that won a lot & those teams played (didn't necessarily beat) teams that won a lot.

The other 25% is based on if you actually win... & it's 30% better when you're doing it on the road. & 30% worse at home.

It's actually pretty good at telling you how tough your schedule is... not so good at reflecting how good your team is.

 

[awbuzz]

I feel the cancellation doesn’t necessarily hurt us as the downside was big vs the upside being relatively small.

I think if you take one in tally, you should be good regarding a bid.

FYI- another tournament projection came out that had us as a 3 seed in a Miss State (14) regional

 

[gtbeak]

Yeah the 12 team SEC bids was tongue in cheek but at the same time isn't RPI, to some extent, a self fulfilling prophecy? Like the football rankings. If your teams start the season all ranked in the top 15 or so and then spend the season beating up on each other then your RPI doesn't take that big of a beating. As an example I was watching the softball seedings the other night and they were comparing head to head Duke, who ended up seeded 10th to Missouri I think, who they seeded in the top 8 which will get you a super regional host if you win your regional. When asked why Duke wasn't seeded higher the committee member rolled out the old RPI argument. When comparing the two teams Duke was far better than Missouri in every single metric except that Missouri played more top 25 RPI games. They only ended up 13-13 in those games while Duke was something like 12-4. Duke had a much better win/loss record. Duke was the regular season winner and the tournament winner. Missouri didn't win either of those. The lone metric that gave Missouri the nod was the number of top 25 RPI games played. It didn't matter that they lost as many as they won.

So in this case, RPI was the ONLY thing that mattered. I thought that RPI was only supposed to be one of several different criteria to be considered. What it really is, is a means to justify any result that the committee wants.

What your post highlights is simply the methodology that the various committees use in justifying their decisions. My gut is that they generally seed teams based on the prevailing eye test of the group and then they look for data to use to sell their seeding. My guess is that, had Duke had the better RPI, they would have just found some other metric to justify their decision. BTW, I don't follow softball at all, so I have no idea how Missouri's and Duke's resumes compare, I'm taking your word on the RPI thing.

 

[78pike]

What your post highlights is simply the methodology that the various committees use in justifying their decisions. My gut is that they generally seed teams based on the prevailing eye test of the group and then they look for data to use to sell their seeding. My guess is that, had Duke had the better RPI, they would have just found some other metric to justify their decision. BTW, I don't follow softball at all, so I have no idea how Missouri's and Duke's resumes compare, I'm taking your word on the RPI thing.

My information came from an extended segment devoted to the Duke seeding on ACC PM. I assume their comparison of those criteria were correct.