Long term analytics trends on GT Football

slugboy

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@Buzzbait, you'd asked about long-term trends on GT football and comparing Gailey with Johnson, etc. Here's the overall SP+, which rates the overall strength of the team (offense, defense, special teams. I marked up coaching eras back through O'Leary. This should give a truer vision compared to wins and losses, since this factors in strength of schedule and margin of victory.

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Gailey's teams are really underrated. He came after O'Leary, and didn't elevate from those days, and didn't beat UGA. My frustration with Gailey is that his teams could have been even better and won more, but he never took the next step. By this measure, the average Gailey team would have been stronger than the average Johnson team, and the best Gailey team would have been better than the best Johnson team.
 

slugboy

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Here are the winning percentages from Sports Reference. Again, Gailey does really well. I'll get some averages in my next post.

OverOverOverOverConfConfConfConfSRSSRSPollPollPoll
RkYearConfWLTPctWLTPctSRSSOSAP PreAP HighAP PostCoach(es)Bowl
12021ACC39.250260.250-1.983.61Geoff Collins (3-9)
22020ACC370.300360.333-7.850.05Geoff Collins (3-7)
32019ACC390.250260.250-8.492.42Geoff Collins (3-9)
42018ACC760.538530.6252.761.76Paul Johnson (7-6)Quick Lane Bowl-L
52017ACC560.455440.5006.385.93Paul Johnson (5-6)
62016ACC940.692440.5007.132.90Paul Johnson (9-4)TaxSlayer Bowl-W
72015ACC390.250170.1251.434.601614Paul Johnson (3-9)
82014ACC1130.786620.75015.924.7888Paul Johnson (11-3)Orange Bowl-W
92013ACC760.538530.6257.213.67Paul Johnson (7-6)Music City Bowl-L
102012ACC770.500530.6255.182.89Paul Johnson (7-7)Sun Bowl-W
112011ACC850.615530.6253.40-1.2912Paul Johnson (8-5)Sun Bowl-L
122010ACC670.462440.5000.800.801615Paul Johnson (6-7)Independence Bowl-L
132009ACC1130.786710.87513.544.8315713Paul Johnson (11-3)Orange Bowl-L
142008ACC940.692530.6256.781.701422Paul Johnson (9-4)Chick-fil-A Bowl-L
152007ACC760.538440.5003.941.2415Chan Gailey (7-5) Jon Tenuta (0-1)Humanitarian Bowl-L
162006ACC950.643710.8756.501.6413Chan Gailey (9-5)Gator Bowl-L
172005ACC750.583530.6257.316.4815Chan Gailey (7-5)Emerald Bowl-L
182004ACC750.583440.5006.414.25Chan Gailey (7-5)Champs Sports Bowl-W
192003ACC760.538440.5005.605.68Chan Gailey (7-6)Humanitarian Bowl-W
202002ACC760.538440.5004.563.86Chan Gailey (7-6)Silicon Valley Bowl-L
212001ACC850.615440.5007.101.9510924George OLeary (7-5) Mac McWhorter (1-0)Seattle Bowl-W
222000ACC930.750620.75011.301.211517George OLeary (9-3)Peach Bowl-L
231999ACC840.667530.62510.303.4711720George OLeary (8-4)Gator Bowl-L
241998ACC1020.833710.87512.371.7099George OLeary (10-2)Gator Bowl-W
251997ACC750.583530.6258.075.652125George OLeary (7-5)Carquest Bowl-W
261996ACC560.455440.5001.782.0622George OLeary (5-6)
271995ACC650.545530.625-0.16-0.43George OLeary (6-5)
281994ACC1100.091080.000-7.413.05Bill Lewis (1-7) George OLeary (0-3)


Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 12/31/2021.
 
Last edited:

slugboy

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Here is each Coach's winning percentage. Gailey's record includes Tenuta's loss coaching the bowl game, which lowers his win percentage. I did not include O'Leary's first 0-3 in his numbers.

Gailey and Johnson are nearly identical. That includes the lower low of Johnson's 3 win season.

CoachWinsLossesWinning %
Geoff Collins
9​
25​
26.47%​
Paul Johnson
83​
60​
58.04%​
Chan Gailey
44​
33​
57.14%​
George O'Leary
53​
30​
63.86%​
 

Eli

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,505
Here is each Coach's winning percentage. Gailey's record includes Tenuta's loss coaching the bowl game, which lowers his win percentage. I did not include O'Leary's first 0-3 in his numbers.

Gailey and Johnson are nearly identical. That includes the lower low of Johnson's 3 win season.

CoachWinsLossesWinning %
Geoff Collins
9​
25​
26.47%​
Paul Johnson
83​
60​
58.04%​
Chan Gailey
44​
33​
57.14%​
George O'Leary
53​
30​
63.86%​
Gailey was the best at evaluating talent. It was actually incredible the development of players under him.
 

forensicbuzz

Helluva Engineer
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Location
North Shore, Chicago
Here is each Coach's winning percentage. Gailey's record includes Tenuta's loss coaching the bowl game, which lowers his win percentage. I did not include O'Leary's first 0-3 in his numbers.

Gailey and Johnson are nearly identical. That includes the lower low of Johnson's 3 win season.

CoachWinsLossesWinning %
Geoff Collins
9​
25​
26.47%​
Paul Johnson
83​
60​
58.04%​
Chan Gailey
44​
33​
57.14%​
George O'Leary
53​
30​
63.86%​
You should include Curry and Ross in these numbers. If I remember correctly, Ross won 2, 3, then 7 in his first 3 seasons. Then he caught lightning in a bottle when Shawn was a Junior QB and had a strong senior-laden team his 4th year in.
 

slugboy

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Staff member
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You should include Curry and Ross in these numbers. If I remember correctly, Ross won 2, 3, then 7 in his first 3 seasons. Then he caught lightning in a bottle when Shawn was a Junior QB and had a strong senior-laden team his 4th year in.
You can see them on the SP+ graph, even though they aren’t marked.

Lewis: 1992-1994. Graph is a nose dive.
Ross: 1987-1991. Graph is straight up from one of our lowest points to our highest, then back off in 1991. If he’d have stayed and we remained at the 1991 level, we’d have been a year over year powerhouse. 1991 was a “disappointing” 8-5 year.
Curry: 1980-1986. He had some rough early years, but he had brought the team up to a good level and figured out how to coach. He also had an experienced team with good players in 1985.
Pepper Rodgers: 1974-1979. Started out at a 10, then trended down. Did not have good W-L results.
Fulcher: 72-73. Yeeesh that’s a drop off.
Carson: Up to 71. Not a great W-L, but strong teams.
 

Gtswifty81

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
435
@Buzzbait, you'd asked about long-term trends on GT football and comparing Gailey with Johnson, etc. Here's the overall SP+, which rates the overall strength of the team (offense, defense, special teams. I marked up coaching eras back through O'Leary. This should give a truer vision compared to wins and losses, since this factors in strength of schedule and margin of victory.

View attachment 11903

Gailey's teams are really underrated. He came after O'Leary, and didn't elevate from those days, and didn't beat UGA. My frustration with Gailey is that his teams could have been even better and won more, but he never took the next step. By this measure, the average Gailey team would have been stronger than the average Johnson team, and the best Gailey team would have been better than the best Johnson team.
This doesn’t surprise me. O’Leary took over at the bottom and had nationally recognized teams. Gailey had good teams but couldn’t get over the hump and get that signature win or season (mainly cause he was unable to develop stellar QB play) so he has a perception of under performing. Johnson had a couple highs during his tenure, had a couple UGA wins, but most other seasons were average and is seen as over achieving with his teams. Collins unfortunately hasn’t been good.
 
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