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How Good Is Recruiting Data at Predicting End of Season Power Ranking Performance?
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<blockquote data-quote="GTNavyNuke" data-source="post: 40633" data-attributes="member: 322"><p>What Beano is saying is not true. What I could easily find is that the correlation of a teams 4 year prior Power Ranking to the next year's Power Ranking was correlated about 35-40% for the last 4 years. Just eyeball the attached the top 20 teams averaged over the last four years - about 1/2 of them finished above top 20 in any given year by my eyeball. If you get that low a result in 4 years, it'll be a lot less in 20 years. Of course, I wasn't looking at the top 20 teams and I'm not about ready to do a 20 year study. </p><p></p><p>So I rate Beano's statement as hyperbole - but I agree that the top teams stay strong in general. They have the resources, reputation and recruiting. It's just hard to stay in the top 20 with all the other teams who want to get there too.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="GTNavyNuke, post: 40633, member: 322"] What Beano is saying is not true. What I could easily find is that the correlation of a teams 4 year prior Power Ranking to the next year's Power Ranking was correlated about 35-40% for the last 4 years. Just eyeball the attached the top 20 teams averaged over the last four years - about 1/2 of them finished above top 20 in any given year by my eyeball. If you get that low a result in 4 years, it'll be a lot less in 20 years. Of course, I wasn't looking at the top 20 teams and I'm not about ready to do a 20 year study. So I rate Beano's statement as hyperbole - but I agree that the top teams stay strong in general. They have the resources, reputation and recruiting. It's just hard to stay in the top 20 with all the other teams who want to get there too. [/QUOTE]
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How Good Is Recruiting Data at Predicting End of Season Power Ranking Performance?
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