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How Good Is Recruiting Data at Predicting End of Season Power Ranking Performance?
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<blockquote data-quote="IEEEWreck" data-source="post: 39132" data-attributes="member: 617"><p>^^^ Thanks dude. I'll play around with it in some statistics packages that the Institute lets us fool with.</p><p></p><p></p><p>Backcasting is the (informal, I think) term in econometrics for arbitrarily changing your model to fit the trend. It's frowned on because it produces picture perfect results for the period in question by decreasing the value of the model for predicting future values in the series. It's something close to lying with regression.</p><p></p><p>There are statistical measures that indicate when the overall trend has changed in the numbers. If the regression changes to fit and there's not 5 pages up front explaining why, its a good indication that the regression has something fishy going on.</p><p></p><p>I'm not sure, but I think that if the star ranks have been ****ed with individually based on what a 'good' school is, there should be noticeable patterns in some statistical criteria, and unexplained correlation in the data.</p><p></p><p>Uh... does that help?</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="IEEEWreck, post: 39132, member: 617"] ^^^ Thanks dude. I'll play around with it in some statistics packages that the Institute lets us fool with. Backcasting is the (informal, I think) term in econometrics for arbitrarily changing your model to fit the trend. It's frowned on because it produces picture perfect results for the period in question by decreasing the value of the model for predicting future values in the series. It's something close to lying with regression. There are statistical measures that indicate when the overall trend has changed in the numbers. If the regression changes to fit and there's not 5 pages up front explaining why, its a good indication that the regression has something fishy going on. I'm not sure, but I think that if the star ranks have been ****ed with individually based on what a 'good' school is, there should be noticeable patterns in some statistical criteria, and unexplained correlation in the data. Uh... does that help? [/QUOTE]
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How Good Is Recruiting Data at Predicting End of Season Power Ranking Performance?
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