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How Good Is Recruiting Data at Predicting End of Season Power Ranking Performance?
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<blockquote data-quote="GTNavyNuke" data-source="post: 39057" data-attributes="member: 322"><p>Three years ago for discussion on another site, I looked at how all the D1 teams at the time performed and correlated that to their four year Scout average star recruiting averages. Since it had been a while, I updated the data.</p><p></p><p>Not surprisingly, again what I found is that teams that have higher ranked recruiting classes tend to have higher Power Rankings. Specifically, I took the four year recruiting averages by Scout average stars and compared it to the JHowell end of Year Power Rankings. <a href="http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm" target="_blank">http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm</a> </p><p></p><p>Back for the 2006 to 2010 time period, that there was a linear correlation of 28% to 43% depending on the year. What I found when I recently updated the data for 2010 to 2013 was a correlation of 27% to 42%, again depending on the year. {Geek note: Power and exponential curve fitting gives about the same correlation.}</p><p></p><p><strong>So about 1/3 to a bit better of a team’s performance is correlated to the recruiting rankings. </strong></p><p></p><p>I attached three charts. </p><p></p><p>· Two scatter charts for two time periods that plot recruiting classes against power rankings. The two time periods are 2006-2010 and 2010 to 2013. You can see the linear correlation coefficient (R2) in the left sidebar. </p><p></p><p>· A decile chart. This chart shows that if a team recruited in a certain decile (e.g. top 10 %), what percentage of that decile finished with a certain power ranking. This is the clearest chart that shows to me that recruiting rankings matter.</p><p></p><p>Now correlation is not causation. But there is a very good reason to think that better athletes will win more games. <strong>Also, there is 60-70% that is not correlated to recruiting rankings and is due to other factors – coaching, luck, offensive or defensive scheme, errors in recruiting rankings, individual growth, team chemistry, whatever.</strong></p><p></p><p>But recruiting does matter. In a later thread, I’ll talk about GT’s probable performance based on recruiting through this year.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="GTNavyNuke, post: 39057, member: 322"] Three years ago for discussion on another site, I looked at how all the D1 teams at the time performed and correlated that to their four year Scout average star recruiting averages. Since it had been a while, I updated the data. Not surprisingly, again what I found is that teams that have higher ranked recruiting classes tend to have higher Power Rankings. Specifically, I took the four year recruiting averages by Scout average stars and compared it to the JHowell end of Year Power Rankings. [url]http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm[/url] Back for the 2006 to 2010 time period, that there was a linear correlation of 28% to 43% depending on the year. What I found when I recently updated the data for 2010 to 2013 was a correlation of 27% to 42%, again depending on the year. {Geek note: Power and exponential curve fitting gives about the same correlation.} [B]So about 1/3 to a bit better of a team’s performance is correlated to the recruiting rankings. [/B] I attached three charts. · Two scatter charts for two time periods that plot recruiting classes against power rankings. The two time periods are 2006-2010 and 2010 to 2013. You can see the linear correlation coefficient (R2) in the left sidebar. · A decile chart. This chart shows that if a team recruited in a certain decile (e.g. top 10 %), what percentage of that decile finished with a certain power ranking. This is the clearest chart that shows to me that recruiting rankings matter. Now correlation is not causation. But there is a very good reason to think that better athletes will win more games. [B]Also, there is 60-70% that is not correlated to recruiting rankings and is due to other factors – coaching, luck, offensive or defensive scheme, errors in recruiting rankings, individual growth, team chemistry, whatever.[/B] But recruiting does matter. In a later thread, I’ll talk about GT’s probable performance based on recruiting through this year. [/QUOTE]
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