GT vs. UVA (-21)

CuseJacket

CuseJacket

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Wednesday, 7pm ET, ESPN2

#110 KenPom vs. #1 KenPom

I will say 21 seems like a lot of points for what should be a low possession game.
 
Peacone36

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Virginia has not impressed me lately. Haslam has it at 25. I think it’s closer to 20 than 30. We won’t be able to stop Hunter. Diakite has been awesome defensively for them.

If we score 40 I’d be surprised
 

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CuseJacket said:
Wednesday, 7pm ET, ESPN2

#110 KenPom vs. #1 KenPom

I will say 21 seems like a lot of points for what should be a low possession game.
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Yea, if we both play kind of our own game, a blowout could be something like 65-50. I don't gamble, but if I did I'd take that line.

However, having said that, Virginia has won nearly half of its games by more than 21 points (10x this year). Georgia Tech has lost by more than 21 four different times: Louisville, UNC, Clemson, Florida State.

In 2018 we lost @Virginia by 11.
In 2017 we lost @Virginia by 13.

You have to go back to the 2014-2015 season to find a loss like that @Virginia...that was the year of the 28-57, LOL. I've seen very few times in my lifetime that one P5 team doubles another P5 team in basketball.
 
kg01

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I could see this being a 10 point "blow-out" where we're only like 10-12 points down but everybody knows those 10-12 points may as well be 80 since we can't score.

I won't be watching. It'll be like watching a slow-speed train wrecking into the Titanic.

Ok, I'm lying. I'll probably still watch. Is this what addiction feels like? #GTbballaddict
 

YlJacket

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Several trends I don't like for tonight - and why I wouldn't put money on this line for GT.

Away game for a team that is likely looking for the end of the season. CJP talked about lack of energy at Miami. Do that again and it will get ugly.

UVA is very well coached with high IQ players. I expect Bennet will have watched the Miami film and has the same combination of banking Banks to keep him stationary, getting the ball to the middle, and placing shooters in the corners. Those guys are deadly shooters.

To beat a pack line defense you have to make 3 point shots. You are not going to drive consistently (and we aren't that good at it anyway) and I don't think Banks or AD are going to hurt them enough on the block to force them to really double hard. You can drive, kick and rotate the ball to open back side shooters as they tend to be in aggressive help position but our shooting woes don't hold out a lot of hope for that. Alternatively, you can go all out to beat them downcourt (ala UNC approach) but I haven't seen us do that either.

I don't see a matchup that I like in this game. Since I plan to watch, guess I am in the addiction program as well. :(
 

senoiajacket

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YlJacket said:
Several trends I don't like for tonight - and why I wouldn't put money on this line for GT.

Away game for a team that is likely looking for the end of the season. CJP talked about lack of energy at Miami. Do that again and it will get ugly.

UVA is very well coached with high IQ players. I expect Bennet will have watched the Miami film and has the same combination of banking Banks to keep him stationary, getting the ball to the middle, and placing shooters in the corners. Those guys are deadly shooters.

To beat a pack line defense you have to make 3 point shots. You are not going to drive consistently (and we aren't that good at it anyway) and I don't think Banks or AD are going to hurt them enough on the block to force them to really double hard. You can drive, kick and rotate the ball to open back side shooters as they tend to be in aggressive help position but our shooting woes don't hold out a lot of hope for that. Alternatively, you can go all out to beat them downcourt (ala UNC approach) but I haven't seen us do that either.

I don't see a matchup that I like in this game. Since I plan to watch, guess I am in the addiction program as well. :(
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I see it a little different from you on Banks and AD. They are dangerous (capable of shooting at a high percentage) when they aren't double teamed. When they are double teamed they become dangerous to us .... although that is one area that they seem to have improved on. Also, maybe we are coming out of our shooting woes?
 
gte447f

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And isn’t one of the tenets of Bennet’s pack line defense to always double the post along with always cut off the baseline?
 

YlJacket

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Generally yes but when they are worried about surrounding shooters they don't always double - or when they don't think the offensive player in the post is a real threat they don't. Also if the offensive player has been pushed a couple of steps outside the block they don't.

Banks has a real hard time holding the block and generally catches the ball a couple of steps off the block. AD is better at holding the block so they may double him some - especially if he really gets going. But I don't see either doing a lot against Salt or any of the post guys they have. They will get theirs but likely not enough to really hurt them. And I think Banks especially will get more off of rolling than posting on the block.
 
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