GT favored over UVA

WreckinGT

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,159
LongforDodd said:
Thier offense seems night/day different. Armstrong was very, very good last year. Does their OL stink this year?
Click to expand...
Their OL is not very good, but im not sure it explains everything. Their QB has regressed in many ways, and has 10 turnovers. Their WR's lead the conference in drops by a wide margin. They had 6 yards rushing last week which seems impossible. Im not sure any unit ever needed a bye week more than they did.
 
85Escape

85Escape

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,450
In watching Brett's call, when he answered the question by saying he was "day to day", it was with a bit of a smirk. He'll need to get better at hiding what's going on...unless he already is excellent at hiding it and the smirk was to throw off UVA.

I'm thinking we'll see Sims at the helm Thursday night.
 
iceeater1969

iceeater1969

Helluva Engineer
Messages
9,649
LongforDodd said:
Thier offense seems night/day different. Armstrong was very, very good last year. Does their OL stink this year?
Click to expand...
Iirc, several uva ol guys left ( unlike pitt)

I checked the ages ( time from hs) of ol and dl for gt and opp.

At start of year.
Uva is only a year older than our ol and about same age of our dl.

But on ol we seem to be still having to reach.
I. E. The clemson ol transfer. mia, the ala transfer ( back injury) looks small and has to sub out, and we are playing a walk on at guard, and a former walkon is back up center.

We are at mid year and our ol is looking a little better.

In recent games UVA - does not "send" the dt ng. They occupy space so lb can slide and make plays. Clemson ole miss, ucf were more vertical in dl rush.
 
85Escape

85Escape

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,450
The Sharp College Football site also has a team projection which I found interesting.

1666106943158.png
1666107064031.png
 
slugboy

slugboy

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
11,490
85Escape said:
@slugboy I'm struggling a bit with the Beta statistics, particularly some of the supporting factors that go into the overall calculation. And by struggling I mean "I don't grok it". Specifically, the Defensive/Offensive Play Efficiency. The blog he wrote said it was to correct for how effective a team is at performing well even when other things don't predict it. I assumed it was a 'clutch' metric. So when our defense has a "1" score and their offense has a "104" score...how should I read that?

View attachment 13338
Click to expand...
The scores are on the bar charts. What you're seeing is the "Play Efficiency RANK" -- we're first. The rank is just for bragging--you can't predict anything from that. The score tells you more.

If you see an integer, it's almost certainly a rank instead of a score.

That row is "Play_Efficiency: This is the effect of yards per play on all points on NCAA drives multiplied by the team specific yards per play controlling for opponent, starting field position, and home/away. "

I'll kind of translate that as "how stingy is your defense on points, especially when their backs are against the wall?"

You can also translate that as "yeah, they gave up some points, but what are you going to do when Clemson blocked two punts and they're pretty much starting in the red zone?"

Not everyone comes to the same conclusion. He really likes our defense. Other frameworks don't like us very much. Another forecaster has us as an underdog.

I haven't checked out this video, but he has a couple of YouTube explainers. Maybe this one will help?



Here are his overall ACC numbers:

1666107863833.png
 

Attachments

  • 1666106901495.png
    1666106901495.png
    119.3 KB · Views: 4

CEB

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,591
WreckinGT said:
Their OL is not very good, but im not sure it explains everything. Their QB has regressed in many ways, and has 10 turnovers. Their WR's lead the conference in drops by a wide margin. They had 6 yards rushing last week which seems impossible. Im not sure any unit ever needed a bye week more than they did.
Click to expand...
To draw a correlation we can all understand; I view Armstrong very much like Sims. He is running for his life a lot so he hasn’t settled in the pocket but one of the worst things we can do is let him out of the pocket... if they start running him and moving him more he can find some confidence quickly. With the off week, I have to believe we will see more of that. Especially if they’re getting so little production from RB as you said.
We need to make sure we take away first options on routes and keep lanes in the pass rush. He seems (or seemed) to do a good job of keeping his eyes downfield while scrambling, so DBs need to be disciplined too. He may force things if we stay disciplined. If we lose lanes or leave relievers early, he can make us pay.
All of this speaks to the POTENTIAL issues he presents. So far, they look like a mess across the board. Hopefully they have another week or so of that left.
 
Techster

Techster

Helluva Engineer
Messages
18,235
bobongo said:
The point spread still hasn't quite caught up to the newly rejuvenated Jackets.
One more week for that, and we should cover as long as we haven't started reading our press clippings. Hopefully Key has those locked up somewhere out of sight.
Click to expand...

Key seems ULTRA focused on the here and now. Even when asked about the prospect of being the HFC, he has been consistent in saying he's just worried about the opponent this week, and today's practice helping the guys get better. He has said repeatedly that he would be contradicting the message he tells the players and coaches if he talked about being HFC while preaching about focusing on the task at hand.

Man, it's refreshing to hear an iHFC talk about football and discipline as opposed to marketing points and slogans.
 
slugboy

slugboy

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
11,490
85Escape said:
Ah...that's where the Sharp method is better. He uses a moving weighting based on recent games. That must be better predictor because of that time-weighting and since he predicted we'd win...
Click to expand...
A film review would be a lot better.

UVA played last on October 8th—same as ours. GT’s last two games were 26-21 over then-ranked Pitt, and 23-20 (OT) over Duke. UVA’s last two games are a 38-17 loss to Duke and a 34-17 loss to Louisville. The game prior was a 22-20 loss to #14 Syracuse.

They seem to be good against the run. Offense is meh.

Whoa, this preseason QB ranking aged poorly: https://athlonsports.com/college-football/acc-quarterback-rankings-2022.
 
Last edited:

WreckinGT

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,159
CEB said:
To draw a correlation we can all understand; I view Armstrong very much like Sims. He is running for his life a lot so he hasn’t settled in the pocket but one of the worst things we can do is let him out of the pocket... if they start running him and moving him more he can find some confidence quickly. With the off week, I have to believe we will see more of that. Especially if they’re getting so little production from RB as you said.
We need to make sure we take away first options on routes and keep lanes in the pass rush. He seems (or seemed) to do a good job of keeping his eyes downfield while scrambling, so DBs need to be disciplined too. He may force things if we stay disciplined. If we lose lanes or leave relievers early, he can make us pay.
All of this speaks to the POTENTIAL issues he presents. So far, they look like a mess across the board. Hopefully they have another week or so of that left.
Click to expand...
Here is a breakdown (with clips) of his play after the Syracuse game. https://www.streakingthelawn.com/20...acuse-duke-what-happened-to-brennan-armstrong. It certainly isn't just he is running for his life all the time. He is making alot of bad throws and decisions even without pressure. Since we know how good he can be, you have to question what the new coaching staff is doing with him.
 
UgaBlows

UgaBlows

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,831
We seem to be good at creating some pressure since Collins vacated the building, hopefully we have a spy for Armstrong because he just killed us with 3rd and 4th down runs last season, when he wasn’t killing us with his arm that is...
 

alagold

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,732
Location
Huntsville,Al
It will be interesting to see how much (if any) we progress (clean up sloppy play---punt game, red zone OFF, penalties, 3rd down eff)) in the 2 week break compared to uva? or--Were we just in a honeymoon after the Clown left?
 

RamblinRed

Helluva Engineer
Featured Member
Messages
5,862
UVA lost their entire OL (they all graduated or transferred) and their OC, who is now the OC at Syracuse where QB Shrader is doing way better than last year.

I'll be honest, if we lose to UVA at home i'll be quite disappointed. Having watched them 3 times, they are not a good team at all. They really don't do anything well.
Right now I have them as the #14 team in the ACC, just behind VT, who is almost as bad.
 
iceeater1969

iceeater1969

Helluva Engineer
Messages
9,649
RamblinRed said:
UVA lost their entire OL (they all graduated or transferred) and their OC, who is now the OC at Syracuse where QB Shrader is doing way better than last year.

I'll be honest, if we lose to UVA at home i'll be quite disappointed. Having watched them 3 times, they are not a good team at all. They really don't do anything well.
Right now I have them as the #14 team in the ACC, just behind VT, who is almost as bad.
Click to expand...
Agree they look kike gt looked 3 weeks ago.

But i never look down on any future opponent. Play as if u heard Armstrong called your mother fat.


We need to play like they are dangerous and keep our foot on the accelerator. If we can turn it on, so can they.

Imo, long needs to open up the passing game

To get over TFG , we really do need a big game from Sims. If they are duds , tgen we win big. But if they are dangerous we need to crush them.
 

billga99

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
819
85Escape said:
In watching Brett's call, when he answered the question by saying he was "day to day", it was with a bit of a smirk. He'll need to get better at hiding what's going on...unless he already is excellent at hiding it and the smirk was to throw off UVA.

I'm thinking we'll see Sims at the helm Thursday night.
Click to expand...
I agree. But I am worried about his ability to run with his injury. A big part of GT offense success has been Sim's called runs. If he is dinged up, I am sure they will cut back on that.
 
Top