Great Offensive Scheme but Need Defense

AE 87

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Okay, I took another look at footballoutsiders.com data for team efficiency. Football Outsiders historically featured two measurements of efficiency: Brian Fremeau's Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) and Bill Connelly's S&P+. FEI focuses on scoring success per meaningful possession (not clock-kill or game-out-of-reach possessions) and adjusts for strength of opponents. S&P+ calculates a measure of success rate (yards vs yards needed with respect to down) per play as well as points per play which it augments with some measure of drive success.

They calculate each of these independently for offense and defense which are then combined for a team ranking, FEI including a measure for special teams.

Starting in 2009 (though they've made numbers available for earlier years), they've combined the results of these statistical measures of efficiency to produce F/+ statistic for Offense, Defense and Special Teams which when summed results in the basis for their "official" rankings.

I took their results for the last six years (2008 - 2013) and pasted them into a spread sheet. I then averaged the F/+ ratings for all FBS teams (including the new ones). I then calculated the rank of each team for each 6-yr average F/+ as well as the 6-yr average for the total S&P+ and FEI.

Alabama was #1 in everything but special teams F/+ where they were 13.

As I may have posted here before, by this measure, GT has had #16 Offense, over the last 6 years. Yes that includes 2009 but it also includes 2010. Over these same 6 years, Navy had the #27 Offense. When you consider the recruiting-rankings for GT and Navy, I think these efficiency rankings are a pretty good vindication that our offensive scheme is sound.

In comparison, our 6-yr average of Def F/+ ranks at 57, which is right where we were ranked last year. Our D F/+ has basically hung in between -3% to 3% while the best D F/+ are around 22-25%.
 

Boomergump

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I think any reasonable person has to conclude (whether using your pasted stats or their own eyeball test) that the offense has been ahead of the defense since CPJ's arrival. Both need to improve though, and I don't mind discussions involving needed improvements on offense. It just bothers me, like some others I'm sure, that, as a fan base, we tend to single out this style of offense for scrutiny while ignoring the defensive shortcomings. Good post.
 

jacketup

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GT Offense was number 25 in yards per play in 2009, and number 51 in 2013. FBS only.

I don't really care about 6 year averages. The trends on offense are negative. It's easy to see, and the stats back up what my eyes tell me.
 

AE 87

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I was going to say more about the importance of the defense, but I couldn't get W-L to paste correctly. Still, here's this, fwiw:
The top 10 teams in overall eff over the last six years averaged ranking 9.9 and 9.1 in off and def efficiency respectively.

The top 5 have averaged 9.8 and 3.4 in off and def efficiency respectively.

The elite teams have elite Ds.
 

bravejason

Jolly Good Fellow
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I went and pulled some numbers from cfbstats.com.

Total Offense; Yards per Play; vs FBS
Total Defense; Yards per Play; vs FBS
year - Offe - Defe
2008 - 6.06 - 5.05
2009 - 6.03 - 6.25
2010 - 5.73 - 5.77
2011 - 6.46 - 5.65
2012 - 5.87 - 5.84
2013 - 5.71 - 5.81

Total Offense; Yards per Play Rank; vs FBS
Total Defense; Yards per Play Rank; vs FBS
year - Off - Def
2008 - 23 - 42
2009 - 27 - 103
2010 - 40 - 72
2011 - 9 - 67
2012 - 41 - 74
2013 - 53 - 78

For comparison, the best teams (i.e., those in or near the top 10) are generally over 6.7 on offense and under 4.5 on defense. In general, a 40th ranked defense would be around 5.0 yards per play and a 40th ranked offense would be around 5.8 yards per play.
 

AE 87

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GT Offense was number 25 in yards per play in 2009, and number 51 in 2013. FBS only.

I don't really care about 6 year averages. The trends on offense are negative. It's easy to see, and the stats back up what my eyes tell me.

Thanks. I'm not sure you understood the logic of my post, nor the meaning of the word trend for that matter.

My post was about scoring efficiency, not yardage efficiency. Ultimately, the game of football is about scoring and preventing scoring. The stats I provided indicate that over the last six years we're 16 in the former and 57 in the latter.

Now, if you look at the thread title, you'll see that I was making a point about the scheme. Averages over an extended period are a way of measuring a program rather than a particular squad.

Yards per play is also a good measure for comparing offenses. And when looking at GT's offense yards per carry. However, to see if there's a trend reflecting on GT, you want to look at actual numbers, not ranks, imo.

YPP 2008-2013 vs FBS
6.06. 6.04. 5.73. 6.46. 5.87. 5.71

YPC 2008-2013 vs FBS
5.71. 5.12. 5.5. 5.7. 5.18. 5.07

YPA 2008-2013 vs FBS
7.8. 10.6. 6.5. 11.1. 9.4. 8.3

Well, it looks like @bravejason pulled some of the same stats. While we've fallen off some the last couple of years, I don't think the data relects a downward trend from 2009 as your post suggested.
 

GravyTrain

Georgia Tech Fan
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CPJ's triple option is undefeated on paper. Problem is it's played on a field not paper.

 

AE 87

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LOL. The 2011 offense with Tevin, Sims, Orwin and Hill was better than the 2009 offense with Nesbitt, Dwyer, Allen and Thomas. LOL.

Those stats aren't opponent-adjusted. Looking at the off efficiency numbers cited above, we were #6 in 2009 (14.4%) and #16 in 2011 (12.0%). It was better than 2008 (6.6%).
 

alaguy

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I went and pulled some numbers from cfbstats.com.

Total Offense; Yards per Play; vs FBS
Total Defense; Yards per Play; vs FBS
year - Offe - Defe
2008 - 6.06 - 5.05
2009 - 6.03 - 6.25
2010 - 5.73 - 5.77
2011 - 6.46 - 5.65
2012 - 5.87 - 5.84
2013 - 5.71 - 5.81

Total Offense; Yards per Play Rank; vs FBS
Total Defense; Yards per Play Rank; vs FBS
year - Off - Def
2008 - 23 - 42
2009 - 27 - 103
2010 - 40 - 72
2011 - 9 - 67
2012 - 41 - 74
2013 - 53 - 78

For comparison, the best teams (i.e., those in or near the top 10) are generally over 6.7 on offense and under 4.5 on defense. In general, a 40th ranked defense would be around 5.0 yards per play and a 40th ranked offense would be around 5.8 yards per play.
when your Def gives up more YPP than your OFF,you got a problem
 

GTNavyNuke

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I'll just give the rankings for each year from 2008-2013:
101. 44. 83. 100. 112. 22

So, yeah, these rankings suggest improvement.

Thanks. When I broke ST into KOs, KO returns, punting, punt returns, FGs; I could see we were doing better last year.

This year will show whether it was an anomaly or we are getting better. I think we are getting better in coverage and kicking.
 

IronJacket7

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Okay, I took another look at footballoutsiders.com data for team efficiency. In comparison, our 6-yr average of Def F/+ ranks at 57, which is right where we were ranked last year. Our D F/+ has basically hung in between -3% to 3% while the best D F/+ are around 22-25%.

Just out of curiosity what was our offense rank/rating vs our defense rank/rating for 2013 season (Roof's Defense)???
 

Mack

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All I can say is the stats I am sure are correct as far as offense but its also very clear that we cant stop folks when we need to and as long as that happens we will have great offensive stats but again........7-5,loss in a bowl and of course loss to puppies.Not fan of the offense as I have stated before but it gives us points yet we are not keeping other teams points off the scoreboard.Good defense wins games.
 
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