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<blockquote data-quote="jacketup" data-source="post: 802926" data-attributes="member: 630"><p>Agreed. College football rosters change immensely each year due to turnover in personnel and the fact that young guys can and do greatly improve their skills and their physical maturity from year to year.</p><p></p><p>Those guys don't analyze roster changes. They say "well, this team had x wins last year so they will be about the same this year." Extremely shallow analysis. Yes, thy can predict that Alabama will be good, since their roster turnover is just a matter of reloading. When you get beyond about 10 teams, their predictions are mostly worthless because they don't study roster turnover much beyond "is the QB returning?". </p><p></p><p>In the 80's I spent 30 hours a week in-season and too much time between seasons studying college football. It was harder in those days with no internet. Heading into the 1990 season I didn't see a team on our schedule I didn't think we could beat based on our roster and opposing rosters. Yet, because we were 7-4 in 1989, we weren't even ranked in the preseason by the so called experts. We see how that turned out. We didn't win the AP poll because sportswriters are generally not analytical--and they probably didn't want to admit they were so far off in their preseason rankings.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="jacketup, post: 802926, member: 630"] Agreed. College football rosters change immensely each year due to turnover in personnel and the fact that young guys can and do greatly improve their skills and their physical maturity from year to year. Those guys don't analyze roster changes. They say "well, this team had x wins last year so they will be about the same this year." Extremely shallow analysis. Yes, thy can predict that Alabama will be good, since their roster turnover is just a matter of reloading. When you get beyond about 10 teams, their predictions are mostly worthless because they don't study roster turnover much beyond "is the QB returning?". In the 80's I spent 30 hours a week in-season and too much time between seasons studying college football. It was harder in those days with no internet. Heading into the 1990 season I didn't see a team on our schedule I didn't think we could beat based on our roster and opposing rosters. Yet, because we were 7-4 in 1989, we weren't even ranked in the preseason by the so called experts. We see how that turned out. We didn't win the AP poll because sportswriters are generally not analytical--and they probably didn't want to admit they were so far off in their preseason rankings. [/QUOTE]
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