Get ready for Clemson!

yeti92

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slugboy

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I've been trying to put myself in the shoes of a Clemson fan and think of what a preview would look like from their perspective.

Last year, Clemson had just been in a physical game with UGA two weeks before but were still healthy.

Clemson passing game vs GT passing defense
The resistible force vs. the movable object. DJ Uiagalelei was one of the lowest-rated passers in the ACC last year. Georgia Tech wasn't good in coverage, and their pass rush was only successful against a few teams--one being UNC. Clemson's line should have been better, but it's still good enough to make a pocket.
Every Clemson fan wants a 5* QB that plays like a 5* QB. Every GT fan wants their secondary and pass rush to improve. We can assume that both improve, and this is still a "push" like last year.
Advantage: even

Clemson running game vs GT run defense
Clemson's running game wasn't very good last year. The same running backs return. Last year, Clemson's line could get a push against GT. Georgia Tech's front 6 and rushing defense was ineffective last year except against a few teams. Clemson's line could push GT back last year, but it was a minor advantage. If Clemson needs a yard, McFadden is a top-flight OT, and Clemson can run behind him for a yard.
Advantage: Clemson (but it's slight).

GT run game vs Clemson run defense
Clemson has 3 of the 4 ACC pre-season starting defensive linemen, and 4 of the starting front 6 on the same pre-season all-ACC list. This year's defense has a new coach, but the same expectations for a top-flight top-5 defense. Georgia Tech's offensive line has been a weakness for the past three seasons. Georgia Tech's running backs took a hit when Gibbs transferred, but they still have plenty of talent, and Sims and other QBs are gifted runners. Georgia Tech's line could improve to be middle-of-the-pack in the ACC, and the Clemson front 6 would still be getting into the backfield creating havoc.
Advantage: Clemson

GT passing game vs Clemson passing defense
Clemson has two all-ACC pre-season first team defensive backs and are loaded with talent. Georgia Tech has a QB who ranked ahead of D J Uiagalelei, but not by much. Their receivers did not get separation last year. They have notable transfers and young receivers, but none of them have proven it on the field yet. Expect Clemson to be a top passing defense again this season. Even if Georgia Tech improves to "average", Clemson still has the talent to shut them down.
Advantage: Clemson

Special Teams
Clemson is deep in 4 and 5 star players, and that makes a huge difference in kickoff, punt, and return teams. It's not just having burners who can return the ball, but also exceptional athletes who can make a wall or bring down the other team's returners. Georgia Tech has dangerous returners, but they've never proven that they can set up blocking in front of those returners.
As for the kickers and returners, Potter is considered the best kicker in conference.
Advantage: Clemson

Overall: Advantage Clemson

The point spread is currently Clemson -21.5. The over/under is 48.5.
Oddshark says take Clemson to cover, but bet the under.

=====
In my personal opinion, this game is one of Tech's best shots for an upset.
One option, is that our defense shows up like last year, and we win a 17-14 or 15-10 kind of game.
Another option is that our defense still shows up, but our offense plays like Pitt or NCST from last year, and we win 27-15.
Here's a look at their results from last season. Nobody scored more than 27 on Clemson, but a decent defensive outing gave you a shot to win.

GDateTimeDaySchoolOpponentConfPtsOppWLStreak
1Sep 4 20217:30 PMSat(3) ClemsonN(5) GeorgiaSECL31001L 1
2Sep 11 20215:00 PMSat(6) ClemsonSouth Carolina StateNon-MajorW49311W 1
3Sep 18 20213:30 PMSat(6) ClemsonGeorgia TechACCW14821W 2
4Sep 25 20213:30 PMSat(9) ClemsonNorth Carolina StateACCL212722L 1
5Oct 2 20217:30 PMSat(25) ClemsonBoston CollegeACCW191332W 1
6Oct 15 20217:00 PMFriClemsonSyracuseACCW171442W 2
7Oct 23 20213:30 PMSatClemson(23) PittACCL172743L 1
8Oct 30 20213:30 PMSatClemsonFlorida StateACCW302053W 1
9Nov 6 20217:30 PMSatClemsonLouisvilleACCW302463W 2
10Nov 13 202112:00 PMSatClemsonConnecticutIndW44773W 3
11Nov 20 202112:00 PMSatClemson(13) Wake ForestACCW482783W 4
12Nov 27 20217:30 PMSatClemsonSouth CarolinaSECW30093W 5
13Dec 29 20215:45 PMWed(19) ClemsonNIowa StateBig 12W2013103W 6


Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 8/26/2022.
 

RamblinRed

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I've been trying to put myself in the shoes of a Clemson fan and think of what a preview would look like from their perspective.

Last year, Clemson had just been in a physical game with UGA two weeks before but were still healthy.

Clemson passing game vs GT passing defense
The resistible force vs. the movable object. DJ Uiagalelei was one of the lowest-rated passers in the ACC last year. Georgia Tech wasn't good in coverage, and their pass rush was only successful against a few teams--one being UNC. Clemson's line should have been better, but it's still good enough to make a pocket.
Every Clemson fan wants a 5* QB that plays like a 5* QB. Every GT fan wants their secondary and pass rush to improve. We can assume that both improve, and this is still a "push" like last year.
Advantage: even

Clemson running game vs GT run defense
Clemson's running game wasn't very good last year. The same running backs return. Last year, Clemson's line could get a push against GT. Georgia Tech's front 6 and rushing defense was ineffective last year except against a few teams. Clemson's line could push GT back last year, but it was a minor advantage. If Clemson needs a yard, McFadden is a top-flight OT, and Clemson can run behind him for a yard.
Advantage: Clemson (but it's slight).

GT run game vs Clemson run defense
Clemson has 3 of the 4 ACC pre-season starting defensive linemen, and 4 of the starting front 6 on the same pre-season all-ACC list. This year's defense has a new coach, but the same expectations for a top-flight top-5 defense. Georgia Tech's offensive line has been a weakness for the past three seasons. Georgia Tech's running backs took a hit when Gibbs transferred, but they still have plenty of talent, and Sims and other QBs are gifted runners. Georgia Tech's line could improve to be middle-of-the-pack in the ACC, and the Clemson front 6 would still be getting into the backfield creating havoc.
Advantage: Clemson

GT passing game vs Clemson passing defense
Clemson has two all-ACC pre-season first team defensive backs and are loaded with talent. Georgia Tech has a QB who ranked ahead of D J Uiagalelei, but not by much. Their receivers did not get separation last year. They have notable transfers and young receivers, but none of them have proven it on the field yet. Expect Clemson to be a top passing defense again this season. Even if Georgia Tech improves to "average", Clemson still has the talent to shut them down.
Advantage: Clemson

Special Teams
Clemson is deep in 4 and 5 star players, and that makes a huge difference in kickoff, punt, and return teams. It's not just having burners who can return the ball, but also exceptional athletes who can make a wall or bring down the other team's returners. Georgia Tech has dangerous returners, but they've never proven that they can set up blocking in front of those returners.
As for the kickers and returners, Potter is considered the best kicker in conference.
Advantage: Clemson

Overall: Advantage Clemson

The point spread is currently Clemson -21.5. The over/under is 48.5.
Oddshark says take Clemson to cover, but bet the under.

=====
In my personal opinion, this game is one of Tech's best shots for an upset.
One option, is that our defense shows up like last year, and we win a 17-14 or 15-10 kind of game.
Another option is that our defense still shows up, but our offense plays like Pitt or NCST from last year, and we win 27-15.
Here's a look at their results from last season. Nobody scored more than 27 on Clemson, but a decent defensive outing gave you a shot to win.

GDateTimeDaySchoolOpponentConfPtsOppWLStreak
1Sep 4 20217:30 PMSat(3) ClemsonN(5) GeorgiaSECL31001L 1
2Sep 11 20215:00 PMSat(6) ClemsonSouth Carolina StateNon-MajorW49311W 1
3Sep 18 20213:30 PMSat(6) ClemsonGeorgia TechACCW14821W 2
4Sep 25 20213:30 PMSat(9) ClemsonNorth Carolina StateACCL212722L 1
5Oct 2 20217:30 PMSat(25) ClemsonBoston CollegeACCW191332W 1
6Oct 15 20217:00 PMFriClemsonSyracuseACCW171442W 2
7Oct 23 20213:30 PMSatClemson(23) PittACCL172743L 1
8Oct 30 20213:30 PMSatClemsonFlorida StateACCW302053W 1
9Nov 6 20217:30 PMSatClemsonLouisvilleACCW302463W 2
10Nov 13 202112:00 PMSatClemsonConnecticutIndW44773W 3
11Nov 20 202112:00 PMSatClemson(13) Wake ForestACCW482783W 4
12Nov 27 20217:30 PMSatClemsonSouth CarolinaSECW30093W 5
13Dec 29 20215:45 PMWed(19) ClemsonNIowa StateBig 12W2013103W 6


Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 8/26/2022.
You could also look at Clemson's season as 2 halves where the first half they had an inept offense and the 2nd half they had a functioning offense.

If you take the first 6 games against FBS (running from UGA to Pitt, excluding SC State), Clemson scored 84 points in regulation (remember NC St was a double overtime game were it was 14-14 at the end of regulation) and its opponents scored 86. 14 vs 14.3 ppg and they were 3-3 in those 6 games and never scored more than 19 points or had more than 2 TD's.
In its last 5 games against its FBS opponents it scored 158 pts and allowed 84 - 31.6 ppg vs 16.8 ppg and was 6-0.

If Clemson picks up closer to the form they had at the end of the year it likely won't be very pretty. If it is closer to the beginning of the year GT will have a chance to keep it close.

This is also where our OL scares me. Tchio was a backup OL for them getting some snaps the first half of the season (and I believe starting against SC ST and NC ST), he completely fell out of their rotation and basically did not play their last 6 games. We are basically expecting him to start for us and his time at Clemson is not very favorable. Our OL against their DL just feels like a huge mismatch,

Much like last year we cannot afford any TO's. No INT's, no fumbles. No giving them a short field and cheap points.
 

slugboy

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10,745
You could also look at Clemson's season as 2 halves where the first half they had an inept offense and the 2nd half they had a functioning offense.

If you take the first 6 games against FBS (running from UGA to Pitt, excluding SC State), Clemson scored 84 points in regulation (remember NC St was a double overtime game were it was 14-14 at the end of regulation) and its opponents scored 86. 14 vs 14.3 ppg and they were 3-3 in those 6 games and never scored more than 19 points or had more than 2 TD's.
In its last 5 games against its FBS opponents it scored 158 pts and allowed 84 - 31.6 ppg vs 16.8 ppg and was 6-0.

If Clemson picks up closer to the form they had at the end of the year it likely won't be very pretty. If it is closer to the beginning of the year GT will have a chance to keep it close.

This is also where our OL scares me. Tchio was a backup OL for them getting some snaps the first half of the season (and I believe starting against SC ST and NC ST), he completely fell out of their rotation and basically did not play their last 6 games. We are basically expecting him to start for us and his time at Clemson is not very favorable. Our OL against their DL just feels like a huge mismatch,

Much like last year we cannot afford any TO's. No INT's, no fumbles. No giving them a short field and cheap points.
I agree on the Clemson "functioning offense" in the second half. Ignoring games like UConn, they became more of a 30 ppg team.

On the other hand, I was conservative about our offense and defense. Because of the last couple of games, we forgot that this team is capable of scoring. Clemson's a hard team to do that against, but that doesn't mean impossible.

We are putting a lot of hope on our OL. Also on our defense, generally.

We gave up WAY too many points on defense.

(sorted by offensive points)

GDateTimeDaySchoolOpponentConfPtsVOpp
2Sep 11 202112:00 PMSatGeorgia TechKennesaw StateNon-MajorW4517
4Sep 25 20217:30 PMSatGeorgia TechN(21) North CarolinaACCW4522
7Oct 23 20217:30 PMSatGeorgia TechVirginiaACCL4048
6Oct 9 202112:30 PMSatGeorgia TechDukeACCW3127
9Nov 6 202112:30 PMSatGeorgia TechMiami (FL)ACCL3033
10Nov 13 20213:30 PMSatGeorgia TechBoston CollegeACCL3041
1Sep 4 20217:30 PMSatGeorgia TechNorthern IllinoisMACL2122
5Oct 2 202112:00 PMSatGeorgia TechPittACCL2152
8Oct 30 202112:00 PMSatGeorgia TechVirginia TechACCL1726
3Sep 18 20213:30 PMSatGeorgia Tech(6) ClemsonACCL814
11Nov 20 20212:30 PMSatGeorgia Tech(6) Notre DameIndL055
12Nov 27 202112:00 PMSatGeorgia Tech(1) GeorgiaSECL045


Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 8/26/2022.
 

RamblinRed

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The basic issue with playing Clemson is their D is too tough for our O to deal with.
We have scored more than 14 points once in the last 6 years against Clemson - a 49-21 loss in 2018. We've been held to 10 or fewer points in four of those 6 years and had 14 in the other.

I just don't expect to score more than 10-14 points and holding Clemson to a number less than that is likely to be difficult.
I would take the under on points and I feel like we can keep it close, but pulling out a win is going to be really tough. We likely need to win the TO battle to have any real chance.

Against run of the mill opponents GT had an offense that could avg around 24 ppg. I'm taking out the 3 games against teams with D's that just completely shut us down and i'm also taking out the top scoring games - one against an FCS, the one outlier offensive performance (UNC) and the one fluke game (getting multiple scores off of multiple onside kicks in the last 2 minutes - UVA). The other 6 range from 17 to 31 points.
 

iceeater1969

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The basic issue with playing Clemson is their D is too tough for our O to deal with.
We have scored more than 14 points once in the last 6 years against Clemson - a 49-21 loss in 2018. We've been held to 10 or fewer points in four of those 6 years and had 14 in the other.

I just don't expect to score more than 10-14 points and holding Clemson to a number less than that is likely to be difficult.
I would take the under on points and I feel like we can keep it close, but pulling out a win is going to be really tough. We likely need to win the TO battle to have any real chance.

Against run of the mill opponents GT had an offense that could avg around 24 ppg. I'm taking out the 3 games against teams with D's that just completely shut us down and i'm also taking out the top scoring games - one against an FCS, the one outlier offensive performance (UNC) and the one fluke game (getting multiple scores off of multiple onside kicks in the last 2 minutes - UVA). The other 6 range from 17 to 31 points.
The old teams are not playing. This team stands on their accomplishments.

Let's hope that this year we are better than last years bad gt team and they are worse Clemson team.

Lets look at coaching turn over:
They had great long serving OC and DC who moved on to head coaching jobs. This is first OC and DC job for their replacements.

Our departed staff got much of their experience while at Gt. Our new staff is definitely experienced so hopefully they don't have incoherent defensive plans and have players coached up as a unit.
It can't be worse.
.
GT 14 CLEM 21 - beat spread by 14
 
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