In Middle and South Georgia, if you know anyone, they’re a dog fan. I used to know all 8 Tech fans in our county.-1 for knowing so many dwags, otherwise, good commentary.
So, you're on the Fire Faulkner bandwagon early? I am willing to let him at least get one short sleeve hoody before I take shots at him.These FEI numbers, they're produced by a coach and his players. How good were the personnel he had to work with?
That's one of my reasons for using OFEI. Did the coach make the most out of what he had to work with? Let's take GT for example. We recruited in the 40-60's for the majority of CPJ's tenure. Yet our OFEIs were regularly in the top 20-30's with multiple years in the teens and top 10. I think a deeper dive into Faulkner's OFEI is to look at the recruiting classes for the schools versus where they ended up in OFEI.
The same thing applies for why we look at OFEI/DFEI for HFC candidates. Is that coach punching above his recruiting weight? At a school like GT that doesn't sign top 10-top 20 classes regularly, a coach that can develop and maximize talent is paramount.
Also, they're determined by strength of schedule in some way, right? So, a team in a lower division is not going to score as high as one in an upper division, even if they have the same offensive output - is that right? For instance, if Arkansas and Arkansas State put up the same numbers, are they going to have the same OFEI? Are we really comparing apples to apples here?
Yes, SOS is a deciding factor. But if you do a deeper dive into the numbers, Faulkner's teams were still middle of the pack to lower end for his conference. You're never going to get an "apples to apples" comparison, but the way FEI is calculated, it's the best metric to "normalize" team disparities available right now and why it's often used.
Let's look at Southern Miss's 2019 schedule a bit. They played 2 SEC teams.
Miss State had a DFEI of 61 that year, and Southern Miss put up 15 points, 344 total yards off of 53 total offensive snaps. (BTW, Miss State had an OFEI of 46 that year).
Southern Mississippi vs. Mississippi State - College Football Team Statistics - September 7, 2019 | ESPNGet team statistics for the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs football game.www.espn.com
Against Alabama, which had a stout defensive FEI of 11 in 2019, they did not fare quite as well. 'Bama played other schools outside of P5 that year and they all fared as well as USM did against 'Bama...so that's just what 'Bama does against teams far less talented than them.
Now you take a look at what a similar school did this year, schools with a coaching candidate we looked at. GA Southern, under Bryan Ellis, for example played Nebraska (DFEI of 85) and put up 45 points and over 600 yards of offense off of 86 offensive snaps. GA Southern was on of the top offenses in the Sun Belt...and that conference included Coastal Carolina, App State who all had top 45 OFEIs.
2023 Georgia Southern Eagles Schedule | ESPNVisit ESPN to view the Georgia Southern Eagles team schedule for the current and previous seasonswww.espn.com
You can do a deep dive with Tulane and Fritz's offense and see the same pattern: An offense that punches above their recruiting weight and had one of the best offenses in their conference as well as in the country.
OFEI is far from perfect, and it's not the end all be all...however, it's probably the most comprehensive analysis that tries to "even the playing" field in terms of statistical analysis.
I'm not as smart as most on here ( but I drink lots of beer and still has lots of hair to be in my 70's)
I don't know about OFE or FEI or any of these things you talk about. I still use the old way did we win and do teams hate to play us.
That's still only 5 out of 25. Since I would imagine there are just as much offense at the lower levels as P-5, these are not like comparisons. There's no allowance for the division they're playing in.Every year is different. Last year, BYU (4), Western Kentucky (9), Air Force (12), Coastal Carolina (17), UTSA (24) were all in the top 25.
The fact that this year is P5 heavy is just indicative of the P5 being strong this year.
Thanks for these numbers. Part of what I'm basing my optimism on is the three-year period Buster spent working with Todd Monken.More data. As before the bolded is the years are the active years, and previous years included for context. PPP is points per play, just raw stats. PPD is points per drive rank. ESPN FPI Eff is the efficiency ranking for the offense, and epa/play rank is the expected points added per play ranking
Year Team PPP Rank PPD Rank ESPN FPI EFF EPA/Play Rank 2010 Middle Tennessee 72 99 112 85 2011 Middle Tennessee 101 102 108 106 2012 Middle Tennessee 54 35 64 67 2013 Middle Tennessee 57 72 79 79 2014 Middle Tennessee 66 62 78 47 2015 Middle Tennessee 54 59 51 33 2014 Arkansas State 27 39 76 56 2015 Arkansas State 20 44 78 60 2016 Arkansas State 66 90 109 98 2017 Arkansas State 37 38 83 58 2018 Arkansas State 73 70 71 53 2017 Southern Mississippi 63 67 96 50 2018 Southern Mississippi 102 104 120 114 2019 Southern Mississippi 76 77 98 78
My goodness. For a bunch of fans, there are some amongst us who act like they think they know better than the professionals in their field as to who to hire. I submit you patiently wait to see actual results on the field (longer than 3 series of the opening game, if you please) before pulling out your artillery about how bad Coach X Y or Z is.
My feeling is pay what we need to pay, take care of your coaches and staff and if we have some left over hold onto it for increases as needed in the future. We turn GT FB around, maybe we will also have more $ to pay for those deserving as we go fwd. Key and company successful we will definitely be paying more to keep the success going.
Seems the current Batt/Key regime is looking at the whole picture, now and in the future. Makes me even more confident Tech is finally in good hands and spending money wisely, for a change.This will certainly be a very interesting experiment over the next few years. I can't imagine Faulkner will command a huge OC salary (was making around $200K at UGA per reports), and he wasn't in high demand (GT was really the only school attached to him this offseason) so that makes me think it's possible Key will invest heavily in recruiting support and support staff (offensive/defensive analysts, consultants, etc.).
A lot of dudes on here are complaining that we have more money available for assistants but aren't spending it, but I'd argue that it's not such a bad thing to be a bit frugal given our financial situation. Just 'cus you have the ability to spend money doesn't mean you should, particularly if the item (coach) you want doesn't cost too much.
I’m having a real hard-time getting excited about Faulkner as our OC, very underwhelming performance as an OC at P5 jobs. That being said I trust Key (so-far) to run his program and support his decision, hope he’s a boom and not a buster....
That's still only 5 out of 25. Since I would imagine there are just as much offense at the lower levels as P-5, these are not like comparisons. There's no allowance for the division they're playing in.
I understand the usefulness of OFEI, just not when comparing coaches from different levels. It's not a fair comparison.
To be completely honest, this was not the hire I was expecting, and I am also going to take a wait and see approach to it. That being said, judging an OC on year 1 is iffy at best. We probably won't know until 2024 just how good he is or isn't.
Chip Long says hi.To be completely honest, this was not the hire I was expecting, and I am also going to take a wait and see approach to it. That being said, judging an OC on year 1 is iffy at best. We probably won't know until 2024 just how good he is or isn't.
Chip Long says hi.