Economic Fallout Thread

LawyersGunsandMoney

Georgia Tech Fan
Messages
34
In thus thread I’d like to discuss solely the economic impact of this virus. Not the government response, not the science of the virus.

In many ways this is going to fundamentally change the economy.

I bet we will see more work from home on a permanent basis. I bet we will also see the final death of box stores to online sales.

One change I expect to see is automation. Given the wet markets in China, this will happen again and it’ll be worth it to big manufacturing to go ahead and replace workers with robots.

Any thoughts?
 

Supersizethatorder-mutt

Helluva Engineer
Messages
12,653
Location
Augusta, GA
In thus thread I’d like to discuss solely the economic impact of this virus. Not the government response, not the science of the virus.

In many ways this is going to fundamentally change the economy.

I bet we will see more work from home on a permanent basis. I bet we will also see the final death of box stores to online sales.

One change I expect to see is automation. Given the wet markets in China, this will happen again and it’ll be worth it to big manufacturing to go ahead and replace workers with robots.

Any thoughts?
I would also like to think that it will start people thinking (significant people, that is) about producing needed goods and services, especially medical supplies and pharmaceuticals, in this country again. Some say that would increase the cost. I don't know if that's true or not, but there's no reason why that can't be addressed in the process of getting them made in America again. And, if they can/WILL resolve that issue, it would have an enormous effect on the economy.
 

armeck

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
267
I have been able to work from home going on 3 weeks now. My wife is a counselor and she has transitioned to telehealth options (I think this will be a lasting aspect of care). So far, our development teams have still been producing at a rate that is expected, so hopefully teleworking options last for me. I could easily see a M-W-F WFH, with T-Th onsite for meetings, face to face.

I hope that employers who have always resisted WFH based on the antiquated, "If I can't see you how do I know you are working?" finally see that they don't need 10,000 sq/ft buildings, utility bills, etc. as they allow people to work from their own "office".

It is quite unfortunate for those whose work insists on person to person interacting, but that is not able to go away completely. We still need restaurants, theaters, sports, etc.

I'd love to see manufacturing return to the US, there's a lot of financial incentive to not build here - not sure how you overcome that.
 

Supersizethatorder-mutt

Helluva Engineer
Messages
12,653
Location
Augusta, GA
I have been able to work from home going on 3 weeks now. My wife is a counselor and she has transitioned to telehealth options (I think this will be a lasting aspect of care). So far, our development teams have still been producing at a rate that is expected, so hopefully teleworking options last for me. I could easily see a M-W-F WFH, with T-Th onsite for meetings, face to face.

I hope that employers who have always resisted WFH based on the antiquated, "If I can't see you how do I know you are working?" finally see that they don't need 10,000 sq/ft buildings, utility bills, etc. as they allow people to work from their own "office".

It is quite unfortunate for those whose work insists on person to person interacting, but that is not able to go away completely. We still need restaurants, theaters, sports, etc.

I'd love to see manufacturing return to the US, there's a lot of financial incentive to not build here - not sure how you overcome that.
We don't agree on much, but I'm with you on this post. I also don't know how to truly incentivize building here, but there has got to be a way.
 

MountainBuzzMan

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
728
I'd love to see manufacturing return to the US, there's a lot of financial incentive to not build here - not sure how you overcome that.
I think it depends on a lot. Where you manufacture in the US, what your volumes are, what you are making (Physical dimensions) . My volumes did not justify me manufacturing in China. Once I moved manufacturing from China to US about 7 years ago, my price per unit dropped by 40% and my quality was probably 10X greater to make it here instead of China. Automation definitely helps for me to stay competitive as my volumes increase, my man minutes per unit keeps dropping, allowing me to continue to have advantages over manufacturing in China.
 

Peacone36

ACCBasketballReport.com
Contributing Writer
Messages
9,353
Location
North Carolina
I have been able to work from home going on 3 weeks now. My wife is a counselor and she has transitioned to telehealth options (I think this will be a lasting aspect of care). So far, our development teams have still been producing at a rate that is expected, so hopefully teleworking options last for me. I could easily see a M-W-F WFH, with T-Th onsite for meetings, face to face.

I hope that employers who have always resisted WFH based on the antiquated, "If I can't see you how do I know you are working?" finally see that they don't need 10,000 sq/ft buildings, utility bills, etc. as they allow people to work from their own "office".

It is quite unfortunate for those whose work insists on person to person interacting, but that is not able to go away completely. We still need restaurants, theaters, sports, etc.

I'd love to see manufacturing return to the US, there's a lot of financial incentive to not build here - not sure how you overcome that.
I build apartment complexes, offices, condo's, banks etc, id say that probably 65% of my job can be done from home, but the remaining 35% is where I really earn my money. Unfortunately, construction companies have carried on as if nothing is going on and basically told employees to "wash their hands" and GSD.
 

Milwaukee

Helluva Engineer
Messages
5,878
Location
Milwaukee, WI
I think it depends on a lot. Where you manufacture in the US, what your volumes are, what you are making (Physical dimensions) . My volumes did not justify me manufacturing in China. Once I moved manufacturing from China to US about 7 years ago, my price per unit dropped by 40% and my quality was probably 10X greater to make it here instead of China. Automation definitely helps for me to stay competitive as my volumes increase, my man minutes per unit keeps dropping, allowing me to continue to have advantages over manufacturing in China.
What do you make?
 

Supersizethatorder-mutt

Helluva Engineer
Messages
12,653
Location
Augusta, GA
I build apartment complexes, offices, condo's, banks etc, id say that probably 65% of my job can be done from home, but the remaining 35% is where I really earn my money. Unfortunately, construction companies have carried on as if nothing is going on and basically told employees to "wash their hands" and GSD.
Would you rather those construction workers be unemployed?
 

Peacone36

ACCBasketballReport.com
Contributing Writer
Messages
9,353
Location
North Carolina
Would you rather those construction workers be unemployed?
they wouldn’t be unemployed they would just be on another site. Superintendents are not doctors, we shouldn’t be taking people’s temperatures at the gate when they come and go. It’s difficult to maintain distance on a job site. Normally there are porta Johns instead of actual bathrooms. There are communication barriers as almost every construction trade now is made up of a semi-English speaking (at best) workforce which leads to gaps following protocols regarding safety. Then there is the fact that a lot of workers just DGAF. We are required to enter residents homes, public spaces.

These factors are not conducive to a safe working environment how easily this virus spreads.
 

684Bee

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,164
And I swear people don’t know as much about people’s lives as they assume they do.
You’re right. I don’t know much about you. That’s why I was only responding to what you posted. It sounds like you still have a job and are getting paid. There’s a lot of people out here who wish they could say that. That’s all I was commenting on.
 

Peacone36

ACCBasketballReport.com
Contributing Writer
Messages
9,353
Location
North Carolina
You’re right. I don’t know much about you. That’s why I was only responding to what you posted. It sounds like you still have a job and are getting paid. There’s a lot of people out here who wish they could say that. That’s all I was commenting on.
I realized that, that’s why I followed it up.
Yes I am thankful to still be rcving a paycheck but that doesn’t mean I’m thankful to be putting myself at risk because putting siding on a building is considered essential.
 

bwelbo

Helluva Engineer
Messages
11,815
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s...e-small-businesses-are-seeing-cash-2020-04-15
“Even businesses that have heard their loans have been approved haven’t seen any money yet.”
This is what I'm hearing from my friends who are small business owners. Some have been approved, some have not, but nobody has actually seen money yet.

I know people who haven't seen their money from the IRS yet.

We are 18 days into being approved for unemployment (my wife is a nurse and they've all had their hours dramatically slashed), but haven't yet seen any payment for it. We don't really need it per se, but it makes me wonder about all the working class people - going this long without money has got to be terrible.
 

684Bee

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,164
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s...e-small-businesses-are-seeing-cash-2020-04-15
“Even businesses that have heard their loans have been approved haven’t seen any money yet.”
This is what I'm hearing from my friends who are small business owners. Some have been approved, some have not, but nobody has actually seen money yet.

I know people who haven't seen their money from the IRS yet.

We are 18 days into being approved for unemployment (my wife is a nurse and they've all had their hours dramatically slashed), but haven't yet seen any payment for it. We don't really need it per se, but it makes me wonder about all the working class people - going this long without money has got to be terrible.
I’m in that camp. Finished up 8 days ago. Haven’t heard anything.
 

MWBATL

Helluva Engineer
Messages
4,378
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s...e-small-businesses-are-seeing-cash-2020-04-15
“Even businesses that have heard their loans have been approved haven’t seen any money yet.”
This is what I'm hearing from my friends who are small business owners. Some have been approved, some have not, but nobody has actually seen money yet.

I know people who haven't seen their money from the IRS yet.

We are 18 days into being approved for unemployment (my wife is a nurse and they've all had their hours dramatically slashed), but haven't yet seen any payment for it. We don't really need it per se, but it makes me wonder about all the working class people - going this long without money has got to be terrible.
I have seen both my PPP loan money and my IRS relief money arrive. But I also know folks who haven't. I am especially frustrated because the 2nd wave of applications for the PPP was supposed to be for entrepreneurs, 1099 people, gig economy folks...and now there is no money for them. My sales reps are in that boat. We weren't allowed to include them on our payroll when applying for the small business loan, and now they can't get their own loan, so they are stuck.
 
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