Duke Week + Homecoming

GTNavyNuke

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Why is an all ACC game on ESPN3 rather than ACCNX? Tax rules easier to figure out.

We are 3 point underdog @ home. I think we should be slightly favored, but barely. Which team is closer to average?
 

78pike

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Take a close look at Duke's schedule. Outside of an upstart Kansas they really haven't played anyone. Looking at their opponents and outside of Kansas I only see one single win against a P5 team (Northwestern vs. Nebraska). They may be 4-1 but they haven't really beaten a team with a winning record. I think the 3 point spread is a pretty fair number but I wouldn't be surprised at all if we beat them.
 

iceeater1969

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Take a close look at Duke's schedule. Outside of an upstart Kansas they really haven't played anyone. Looking at their opponents and outside of Kansas I only see one single win against a P5 team (Northwestern vs. Nebraska). They may be 4-1 but they haven't really beaten a team with a winning record. I think the 3 point spread is a pretty fair number but I wouldn't be surprised at all if we beat them.
Are we lucky or what. Without the 4th punt block the person to be named later would likely still be here. Then Sims wakes up at Duke and "named later" would still be here till we figured it out the much harder way.

I hope
u are right and we get a decisive win. I will take a helluva battle like Pitt and be overjoyed.
 

slugboy

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Baked into this prediction are our first four games that we didn't play well in. I'd recommend weighting the last game a lot heavier than the first four. We do still have issues, but this game is more even than the stats models say it is. Like some others have said, this game is about who wants it more and who gets the lucky breaks.



Are we lucky or what. Without the 4th punt block the person to be named later would likely still be here. Then Sims wakes up at Duke and "named later" would still be here till we figured it out the much harder way.

I hope
u are right and we get a decisive win. I will take a helluva battle like Pitt and be overjoyed.
I don't think he was lasting the entire season. The Ole Miss game probably did him in. UCF was just the cherry on top.

It also looks like C*****s brought the punt blocks on himself.
 

GTNavyNuke

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Not showing as on ESPN3 schedule

Here's why I said ESPN3 from ESPN site. No matter, I'll be in the mountains with NO connectivity and blissfully unaware till I walk to a ridge to get connectivity.

Just noticed that there are 3 Duke players and none of ours to watch. LOL. That's BS.

1664921699481.png
 

slugboy

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Here's why I said ESPN3 from ESPN site. No matter, I'll be in the mountains with NO connectivity and blissfully unaware till I walk to a ridge to get connectivity.

Just noticed that there are 3 Duke players and none of ours to watch. LOL. That's BS.

View attachment 13250
They’re picking players on offense. I’d definitely say to watch Thomas and Eley and a few others on defense. And we got no rushers?
ESPN’s loss :(
 

bke1984

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Jeff is prone to hand it off on the RPO way too much
When you watch him it’s clear that he tries to avoid contact to a fault. There are exceptions of course…most notably stepping into the pocket for the TD and running down field to block for Hall…but then there are repeated cases of pulling up short when he can pick up a first down, or simply falling into the line on a sneak from the goal line…or handing the ball off on an RPO when he could keep and gain 3-4, but get blasted in the process. I get that he’s not Nesbitt, but I think he’s overly cautious. He needs to take a few more chances with the ball, because he’s truly dynamic when he does.
 

Augusta_Jacket

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Just noticed that there are 3 Duke players and none of ours to watch. LOL. That's BS.

They’re picking players on offense. I’d definitely say to watch Thomas and Eley and a few others on defense. And we got no rushers?
ESPN’s loss :(

They pick the statistical best QB, RB, and WR entering the game. Dukes players so far have better stats than ours.
 

slugboy

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It's Wednesday, so let's have some hump day preview information.

On Offense, Riley Leonard is up towards the top of the ACC QBR rankings, with a really nice 79.8 rating--that's good. Sims is down at a 46. Some people split the QBR where above 70 is good and below 70 is not, but I'd put more gray in it than that. Sub-50 is not where you want to be when you need to sling the ball.

NAMEQBR
Drake MayeUNC
90.6​
Jordan TravisFSU
83.2​
Riley LeonardDUKE
79.8
Sam HartmanWAKE
78.6​
DJ UiagaleleiCLEM
77.2​
Malik CunninghamLOU
75.9​
Garrett ShraderSYR
74.4​
Devin LearyNCST
52.5​
Kedon SlovisPITT
48.8​
Jeff SimsGT
46
Grant WellsVT
45.6​
Tyler Van DykeMIA
41.3​
Brennan ArmstrongUVA
41.1​
Phil JurkovecBC
39.4​

I'll look at their last game against UVA, since they're probably more comparable to us than Kansas. Here are the Duke-UVA highlights. Duke looks good. UVA's QB Armstrong should have gone pro last year. UVA's defense--well, Pitt's defense looks a LOT better than UVA's defense. Last year, UVA would beat you 49-35, but this year's defense looks weaker than last year's defense. Still, Duke looks good, even if UVA looks weak.

The one thing that makes me feel good about our defense is that, outside of some Q4 breakdowns, did not give up the big play, unless your idea of a big play is a 7-yard run. Duke feasted on UVA's defense.



Here's the Game on Paper

OverallUVADUKE
EPA/Play-0.14 19th %ile0.22 82nd %ile
Success Rate39% 39th %ile56% 96th %ile
Yards/Play3.21 2nd %ile6.17 56th %ile
EPA/Dropback-0.13 30th %ile0.08 53rd %ile
EPA/Rush-0.16 22nd %ile0.32 91st %ile
Yards/Dropback3.45 8th %ile6.20 47th %ile
Explosive Play Rate11% 77th %ile7% 33rd %ile
3rd Down Success Rate55% 82nd %ile50% 75th %ile
Red Zone Success Rate40% 53rd %ile100% 99th %ile
Def Run Stuff Rate6% 0th %ile12% 1st %ile
Havoc Rate8% 37th %ile21% 95th %ile

Duke ran for 248 yards and passed for 129. UVA passed for 202 and rushed for 93. Duke cashed in and got a ton out of their running game.

Duke just got in front and gradually padded their lead from there. When they played Kansas and got behind, they didn't play as well. Lesson learned--don't let them have an early lead.
1234T
UVA073717
DUKE14771038

Here's our FEI numbers.
RKTeamRecFBSFEIOFEIRkDFEIRkNDERkNPDRkNAYRkNPPRkELSRkGLSRkALSRk
66Duke4-13-1-0.050.1951-0.4971.29251.32210.145251.82150.041180.261201.26115
94Georgia Tech2-31-3-0.32-0.2586-0.2386-1.32111-1.54115-0.171111-1.081000.42241.6953.22

So, opponent-adjusted, our defense is better than their defense. Their offense is much better than our offense.

Our defense SHOULD match up pretty well with their defense. The bigger question is whether our offense starts playing better.
 

gville_jacket

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Here's why I said ESPN3 from ESPN site. No matter, I'll be in the mountains with NO connectivity and blissfully unaware till I walk to a ridge to get connectivity.

Just noticed that there are 3 Duke players and none of ours to watch. LOL. That's BS.

View attachment 13250
The players to watch is purely most passing yards, most rush yards, most receiving yards. That's it, it's autogenerated.
 

slugboy

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Here's your depth chart (has this been shared, already)?


More stats on Duke:

Duke Rushers:

Jaylen Coleman and Jordan Waters are their main rushers, and Coleman seems to be the more dangerous.
RushReceScri
RkPlayerGAttYdsAvgTDVRecYdsAvgTDPlaysYdsAvgTD
1Jaylen Coleman5583075.3422814.00603355.64
2Jordan Waters5512484.947598.40583075.34
3Riley Leonard5412616.44412616.44
4Jaquez Moore4181568.71181568.71
5Eric Weatherly22168.012168.01
6Jordan Moore54338.30222159.83262489.53
7Rashawn Allen4393.00393.00
8Henry Belvin IV13-16-5.303-16-5.30
9Terry Moore2263.00263.00


Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 10/6/2022.

Duke Receivers:

Jalon Calhoun and Jordan Moore get the majority of the passes.

RushReceScri
RkPlayerGAttYdsAvgTDRecYdsAvgTDVPlaysYdsAvgTD
1Jordan Moore54338.30222159.83262489.53
2Jalon Calhoun52335615.522335615.52
3Nicky Dalmolin510878.7110878.71
4Shamir Hagans5711516.41711516.41
5Jaylen Coleman5583075.3422814.00603355.64
6Jordan Waters5512484.947598.40583075.34
7Eli Pancol51221818.201221818.20
8Jontavis Robertson556312.6056312.60
9Darrell Harding Jr.43217.003217.00
10Cole Finney523216.0023216.00
11Luca Diamont211818.0011818.00


Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 10/6/2022.
 
Last edited:

slugboy

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There's a more interesting view at https://gameonpaper.com/cfb/year/2022/team/150.

DETMER is an interesting stat

Riley Leonard throws fairly deep and completes good percentage of his passes.
Comp/AttYdsTDINTSacksDETMERYds/dropbackEPA/dropbackEPASR
Riley Leonard59/89 (66% Comp)8153030.518.590.2624.1145%

Waters and Coleman are players to watch on the ground:
CarriesYdsTDFumYds/rushEPA/rushEPASR
Jaylen Coleman28138204.930.092.6350%
Jordan Waters25119104.760.348.5060%
Riley Leonard22147006.680.122.5459%
Jaquez Moore1134003.09-0.44-4.8318%
Jordan Moore433008.250.391.5875%
RaShawn Allen39003.00-0.24-0.7333%

Here's their passing info:
CatchesTargetsCatch RateYdsTDFumYds/playEPA/playEPASR
Jalon Calhoun172277%2911013.230.7416.3864%
Eli Pancol81747%136008.000.122.0641%
Jordan Moore141688%1631010.190.9715.4669%
Nicky Dalmolin6786%13001.86-0.65-4.540%
Jordan Waters55100%43008.600.070.3340%
Sahmir Hagans3475%661016.501.485.9175%
Jontavis Robertson33100%450015.000.962.8767%

Basically, watch out for Calhoun and Moor. Either Leonard has a great touch, or all his receivers other than Pancol have great hands.

Defensively, they look vulnerable to the pass, but they lost to Kansas, so it might be distorted by that game:
Against the Pass
Plays110
Plays/Game37 #87
Total EPA27.59 #118
EPA/Play0.25 #117
EPA/Game9.20 #120
Success Rate46.4% T-#110

They're good against the run, which is where we're better on offense.
Against the Run
Plays94
Plays/Game31 #47
Total EPA-38.10 #2
EPA/Play-0.41 #1
EPA/Game-12.70 #2
Success Rate31.9% #24
 
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