Do you hold scholarships all the way to signing day?

[Bruce Wayne]

I need help on this topic since holding scholarships to signing day means risking not hitting your number. By the way, sorry for the length of my posts to start threads.

Since CPJ does not oversign, a stance I completely agree with as proper and ethical, then here is a strategy I may follow to try and hit my number.**

First, I would keep a running average over say the past 5 years to estimate how much extra attrition I can reasonably expect to have in the last 2 months of a recruiting year (academic disqualifiers, decommits, etc.). Plus I would get the average for post-signing day attrition (draft, players quitting team in spring, getting kicked off, etc.).

Then I would take the pre-signing day average attrition minus 1 or 2 (to be safe) plus the number of seniors/available scholarships and get a number and recruit to that.

Next, I believe a strong walk-on program is great for Tech b/c the education is attractive enough, plus comparatively reasonably priced, that you stand a good chance of getting high caliber walk-ons. To have a strong walk-on program kids need to know that earning a scholarship is possible. So I would use my post-signing day average attrition to both recruit walk-ons/transfers and . . . . here is where I get controversial . . . sign elite recruits who want to wait to signing day or beyond.

That means, I would only "hold" a scholarship open until signing day for a silent commit.

I would tell those kids that want to have hat picking ceremonies on signing day:

"That's fine but here is how a scholarship to Tech works. I am trying to hit X number on signing day. Therefore, I will accept commits up to that number and am not holding one for you past Y-date. Even Calvin Johnson was able to make his decision and committed on Jan. 12, 3-4 weeks before signing day. I want you at Tech and if I hit my number AND all my commits actually do send in their letters on signing day then I will not have a scholarship for you on that day. But experience tells me that I get decommits the very week of signing day or attrition after signing day on an average of X scholarships a year. Normally I use those for transfers or walk-ons but if you want to wait to signing day or beyond then you will be first in line for one of those. So if one came available from a decommit then cool, we take your LOI on signing day, if not then you need to wait or greyshirt."

What do you think?

The sticky part is that it is conceivable that one signing day you have an elite prospect pick a Tech hat but you had no decommits and you have to tell the kid to hold on for post-signing day attrition or agree to greyshirt in order to avoid oversigning. Certain people in the fanbase would freak out over that.

For my part I would be amused at that situation as I do not think adults should coddle the egos of teenagers no matter the level of athletic ability they display. I prefer giving yourself the best chance to hit your number possible.

**Please note that I am NOT criticizing CPJ's recruiting approach or strategy, since only he and his coaches really know it in detail; instead I am treating the topic abstractly.**

 

[GTJason]

Some kids are worth waiting for and some aren't. We usually know who we are getting on signing day. A commit will likely be a dumb--- and visit FSU or something and we'll drop him and bring in someone waiting on a scholarship. You gotta see it from those "lower" tier kids' perspective too. How many have gotten tired and committed to Elon (or wherever - not picking on schools) instead of waiting on someone like GT to have a spot open? The only people in this game holding all of the cards are the top tier kids (i.e. if a Leonard Fournette or some other guy at the top of his position came to CPJ in May and said coach I want to be a Yellow Jacket, we'll make a spot for him - likely most schools would)

In my opinion we should hold one or 2 scholarships if we have a realistic chance at a top target. I don't mind gambling a little, sometimes we get burned like with Corn Elder but that's the game we play. I assume, while this thread is posing a broader question, Myles Autry is kind of who we are talking about. He's a special case in that we know his family. Mama loves us, big brother is going to be a star once his knee gets better and Myles has all of the makings of a star. Some people may think it's a mistake waiting on someone who might be a bust, but that's the case with any recruit. If he turns out to be a star we'll all look back and laugh, if not it's not unlike any other recruit that came to GT and didn't pan out.

We all can agree CPJ is an excellent judge of talent, if he's willing to wait on Myles so am I.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

So how about this scenario.

You wait on 2 kids through signing day and meanwhile you get hit with 2 decommits in the final week. Now both those elite kids you waited on go to other schools and you are now 4 below the scholarship limit, plus you can expect by average natural attrition to lose 2 more after signing day.

You then have 6 scholarships below the limit with which to try and get a transfer or two and to give to walk-ons.

Is that fine or too far off the number? I prefer that you are left with 2-3 in the spring for transfers/walk-ons.

If too far off then how do we hit it closer on signing day?

 

[Bruce Wayne]

GT Jason said "I assume, while this thread is posing a broader question, Myles Autry is kind of who we are talking about."

That is true, the Myles discussion prompted my musings. But I am not concerned about him in particular as you can make a list of the Tomlinson's, Elder's, Tuitt's, Autry's and I would treat them all the same as a policy. I don't want to assume that Autry or any kid in particular is just "milking it" due to ego when they wait to NSD.

Basically, I am emphasizing trying as hard as you can to hit your optimal signing day number. Again, I am not saying CPJ does not try and do that (I assume he does actually) I am just trying to come up with the best strategy to do so and have no clue about what specific strategy he may follow.

I think if you take Calvin's commitment date of Jan. 12th as a possible deadline then what you say to the elites that are waiting to the end is that after that point you, as coach, are going to be trying to make sure you hit your number so no scholly is specifically saved. Most years you will lose 1-2 in the last month to academic issues or decommitment anyway and so come NSD it will not be a problem if the elite kid does pick the Tech hat. But if you do not have any attrition then you must work out taking the elite kid as a greyshirt or once the post-signing day attrition begins.

To my thinking you have optimized your chance to hit your number while making it that the only kids put at risk of being asked to greyshirt or to wait for a scholarship to come available later on would be the elite kids and NOT the lower ranked kid who was your first commit of the class but got injured (I am looking right at you Nick Saban).

 

[SoCal_GT_Fan]

I believe its a judgement call on whether to keep a scholly open for an elite recruit who's waiting til NSD to decide. I'm sure if the coaching staff talks with the recruit and perhaps his family, they can get a sense of whether they have a chance or perhaps they need to be looking else where. If we have a chance, I would want to keep a scholly open. If others decommit, hopefully we've learned our lessons from the past and have some back-up plans and thus have a recruit ready to take that decommitted slot.

I would also think that if the recruit has taken all of his OV and has visited the schools he's interested in and he's still holding off to make a decision weeks later and waiting for NSD and beyond to sign, that might not be a guy we want. Their football seasons should be over and there should be plenty of time to make a decision between early December (when most football season are over) and the beginning of February. Sounds like a guy who wants to have a lot of attention bestowed on them and I don't think that kind of guy would jive at Tech or for that matter with CPJ.

 

[GTrob21]

It would depend on how as a coach I felt about the players I already had committed. If I felt really good about who I had and I was waiting on a guy who I thought was better, I would wait.

If not then I would accept a commitment from a kid and move on.

 

[AE 87]

At the level at which we recruit, I don't think the difference between 83 and 85 on scholarship is that big. If you sign up to 82, 83 or so and have a couple, few available for late decisions or walk-ons seems about right to me.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

AE 87 . . . I am ok with being at say 83 after NSD. I am just uncertain of what the best way to get to that "number" is (whether it is 83-84-85). My thought is that saving a scholly for a signing day decision type kid, who is not a silent commit is harmful for the coach's chance to hit that number. As you indicate, hitting the full number is probably not that big of a deal, but you still have the challenge of deciding what policies to have and what process to follow to give yourself the optimal chance of at least coming close enough to the number to be satisfied.