Coronavirus Thread

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jwsavhGT

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"Today Governor Kemp announced 34 Grand Princess Cruise Ship Passengers will be securely transferred to Dobbins Air Reserve Base in Marietta, Georgia. These passengers will undergo testing and be quarantined for possible exposure to COVID-19. They are expected to arrive at Dobbins late Monday, March 9 or early Tuesday, March 10."
 
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"JUST IN: Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Dr. Anthony Fauci warned Americans with underlying health conditions against boarding cruise ships and airplanes as the number of coronavirus cases across the world grows."
 

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US positive tests (approximate) last 7 days:
102
126
158
215
317
430
531

since this will be a big week for testing, I would expect us to get to a few thousand by next weekend. As long as we are not seeing large numbers of death seen by anybody other than very old people, maybe we will reach the pinnacle of the hysteria by then.
 
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Got the first positive test from my little area in Spartanburg SC today!

Side note I needed toilet paper today, took the trip to Costco that I do every 3-4 months and they are out of every kind of toilet paper. I don't understand the hoarding of toilet paper that causes no bowel issues.
 

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Italy had a couple hundred people die this weekend from the Coronavirus. Crazy.
 

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bwelbo said:
Italy had a couple hundred people die this weekend from the Coronavirus. Crazy.
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This a little disheartening. We’re talking about a first world, healthy country with a decent heal th care system. And per capita if we had their deaths, we’d be at 1,500+. In just 2 weeks. They’re running at 50x the mortality rate of the Flu.
 
CuseJacket

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bwelbo said:
This a little disheartening. We’re talking about a first world, healthy country with a decent heal th care system. And per capita if we had their deaths, we’d be at 1,500+. In just 2 weeks. They’re running at 50x the mortality rate of the Flu.
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Fortunately South Korea, much closer to China and therefore most likely to see spikes early, was out front in doing the most thorough testing. Their data suggests a much milder outcome than that type of extrapolation.
https://gtswarm.com/threads/coronavirus-thread.21189/page-12#post-698960

140,000 tested in South Korea as of last week. We've tested < 2,000.
The Atlantic could only verify that 1,895 people have been tested for the coronavirus in the United States, about 10 percent of whom have tested positive. And while the American capacity to test for the coronavirus has ramped up significantly over the past few days, local officials can still test only several thousand people a day, not the tens or hundreds of thousands indicated by the White House’s promises.
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This is a significant reason why coronavirus cases will "rise" across the U.S. It's not as if the virus is just now arriving at cities across the U.S; rather we are just now testing. It is pervasive already and we just aren't capturing the cases when they occur. Fortunately there hasn't been a spike in 'unknown cause of death' to my knowledge.
 
GT_EE78

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Supersizethatorder-mutt said:
There is now a suspected case in Augusta.

I heard on NBC evening news tonight that there are now more recovered patients in China than new cases .... for the first time. I looked to see if that could be confirmed online, and I found this --- https://www.worldofbuzz.com/more-ca...for-the-first-time-14376-patients-discharged/
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That was dated Feb 18. NBC is usually worthless, mostly lies and often has intent to deceive. this one is good for stats.
scroll down for a spreadsheet that is updated daily. If your looking for older info by date then keep on scrolling below the ss for older news and highlights.https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
 
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GT_EE78 said:
That was dated Feb 18. NBC is usually worthless, mostly lies and often has intent to deceive. this one is good for stats.
scroll down for a spreadsheet that is updated daily. If your looking for older info by date then keep on scrolling below the ss for older news and highlights.https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
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You are right; I didn't notice the date on that article. However, what I heard on NBC news was tonight.
 
RonJohn

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https://arstechnica.com/science/202...ensive-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus/
You should be concerned and take this seriously. But you should not panic.
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This article has plenty of data and plenty of information from experts. My general take on the article is "Be concerned, but don't panic." Don't buy face masks if you don't absolutely need them, because health care providers who do absolutely need them can't get them. The article cites ways that untrained people using masks doesn't prevent getting infected and actually can raise the chance of being infected. I guess too many people think it is boring, but the hygiene recommendations that the CDC has touted for years is the best way to protect yourself. That information just doesn't fit the 24 hour, up to the minute news cycle.

Don't be alarmed by the data being presented because it likely isn't accurate. Death rate could be higher, but is likely lower. It won't actually be known until an entire community can be tested to see how many previously undiagnosed cases there were and to count deaths that were previously labeled as cleared.
 
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RonJohn said:
https://arstechnica.com/science/202...ensive-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus/

This article has plenty of data and plenty of information from experts. My general take on the article is "Be concerned, but don't panic." Don't buy face masks if you don't absolutely need them, because health care providers who do absolutely need them can't get them. The article cites ways that untrained people using masks doesn't prevent getting infected and actually can raise the chance of being infected. I guess too many people think it is boring, but the hygiene recommendations that the CDC has touted for years is the best way to protect yourself. That information just doesn't fit the 24 hour, up to the minute news cycle.

Don't be alarmed by the data being presented because it likely isn't accurate. Death rate could be higher, but is likely lower. It won't actually be known until an entire community can be tested to see how many previously undiagnosed cases there were and to count deaths that were previously labeled as cleared.
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Unfortunately I don't think the "24 hour news cycle" is apt to put data in appropriate context, meaning new test results will be presented as if the virus is spreading exponentially, where in reality the denominator is increasing primarily because we are finally able to test at scale.

It would be interesting if in an alternative universe we bastardized the interpretation of today's data to say "well, based on number of positive tests, this unpreventable disease is far less contagious than the flu, for which we have vaccines". Perhaps then folks would act irrationally the other direction. Who knows.

It is incredible how few people are thinking for themselves.
 
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GT_EE78

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CuseJacket said:
Fortunately South Korea, much closer to China and therefore most likely to see spikes early, was out front in doing the most thorough testing. Their data suggests a much milder outcome than that type of extrapolation.
https://gtswarm.com/threads/coronavirus-thread.21189/page-12#post-698960

140,000 tested in South Korea as of last week. We've tested < 2,000.


This is a significant reason why coronavirus cases will "rise" across the U.S. It's not as if the virus is just now arriving at cities across the U.S; rather we are just now testing. It is pervasive already and we just aren't capturing the cases when they occur. Fortunately there hasn't been a spike in 'unknown cause of death' to my knowledge.
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You're not the only one who has posted links regarding how well SK was prepared re: test capabilty which is paying dividends so I'm not disagreeing with your point,however -
FYI, The Atlantic is often nothing but fake news like this story, They deliberately report something they know is false. Several outlets ran that <2000 number today when they know that it represents CDC test only. CDC stopped including state and local tests several days ago. total tests were about 6K yesterday or Friday. Avoid Atlantic.
 
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