Conference Realignment

orientalnc

orientalnc

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WreckinGT said:
FSU has amended their lawsuit. They are going after Swofford now.

www.on3.com

FSU takes aim at former ACC Commissioner John Swofford in amended complaint

Florida State's attorneys have filed an amended complaint against the ACC, and they put former Commissioner John Swofford in crosshairs
www.on3.com www.on3.com
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Maybe we will get more legal analysis soon, but the first thing I see while reading this is that FSU is still really pissed about the ACC deal with ESPN. That is probably a reasonable thing to be pissed about. However, that is not germane to the GOR, which is the contract from which FSU wants to be liberated. Free of charge. To me this is just more of their damaged ego throwing ketchup against the wall.
 

WreckinGT

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RonJohn said:
The confusion isn't about where they want to get to. The question is about whether they can get there with their current methods. They are not just burning bridges with the SEC, they are burning bridges with the TV broadcast company. IF they get out now with zero payments for withdrawal or GOR, and they own their media, I am extremely doubtful that either the Big10 nor SEC can provide a full media payout to another team until the current contracts expire in about six years.

The Big10 nor SEC can provide an immediate full payout. Will either the Big10 or SEC overlook the intentional damage that FSU is doing to the ACC and to ESPN? People often say that money causes everything to be overlooked, but that isn't true. I have seen many times where money could be made, but potential partners don't trust others in the agreement.

I don't believe the proposition some have posted that FSU has an offer in hand from the Big10. There are other ACC teams that the Big10 would likely be more interested in. I don't see the Big10 actually making an offer before a team has announced they are leaving their current conference for legal reasons. I don't see the Big10 actually making an offer if they are not certain that they will be able to get the media rights to that team. There could be informal talks, but that leads to the confusion. Why go through all of this without actually knowing where they will end up.

In another post, you say that FSU has significant value. Will ESPN, Fox, NBC or anyone else pay FSU more than $40 million per year in a stand alone deal as an independent? I think that is doubtful. Especially ESPN since FSU is currently in court trying to get confidential ESPN information made public. Will either the Big10 or SEC give FSU a full media payout before the current contracts expire? I think that is doubtful, especially looking at what happened with Washington and Oregon. Those teams are making LESS in media revenue than ACC teams until the next Big10 media contract. Can FSU start a streaming service on their own and make more than $40 million per year? I seriously doubt that. PERCEIVED value doesn't always equal earned revenue.
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No. FSU isn't going to get a $40 million dollar contract as an independent. No team in college football could. But they were the 9th most watched team in college football this year. Over the last 8 years they are among the top 18 most watched teams even with some down years. They are by far the most valuable program currently unclaimed by the SEC or Big 10 from that perspective. Are the SEC and Big 10 and ESPN and FOX and Big 12 all going to blackball them because of their actions against the ACC leaving them to the Sun Belt conference? I doubt it. If networks and conferences thought this way then Texas wouldn't be in a P2 conference.
 

WreckinGT

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orientalnc said:
Maybe we will get more legal analysis soon, but the first thing I see while reading this is that FSU is still really pissed about the ACC deal with ESPN. That is probably a reasonable thing to be pissed about. However, that is not germane to the GOR, which is the contract from which FSU wants to be liberated. Free of charge. To me this is just more of their damaged ego throwing ketchup against the wall.
Click to expand...
It goes towards the fiduciary responsibility argument made in their original claim. Plenty of people here and elsewhere have made the same argument against Swofford only now its in legal form. Will it make a difference? I have no idea. But it puts more pressure on the ACC as every bit of correspondence related to the Raycom deal will now be up for grabs in discovery. Between this, the claims that ESPN and the ACC strong armed the latest GOR as a requirement for a network, and the claims related to the ESPN contract, all of the ACC's dirty laundry is going to be aired out. Will the ACC settle to prevent that? We will see.
 
Northeast Stinger

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orientalnc said:
Maybe we will get more legal analysis soon, but the first thing I see while reading this is that FSU is still really pissed about the ACC deal with ESPN. That is probably a reasonable thing to be pissed about. However, that is not germane to the GOR, which is the contract from which FSU wants to be liberated. Free of charge. To me this is just more of their damaged ego throwing ketchup against the wall.
Click to expand...
I see what you did there.
 
Northeast Stinger

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WreckinGT said:
It goes towards the fiduciary responsibility argument made in their original claim. Plenty of people here and elsewhere have made the same argument against Swofford only now its in legal form. Will it make a difference? I have no idea. But it puts more pressure on the ACC as every bit of correspondence related to the Raycom deal will now be up for grabs in discovery. Between this, the claims that ESPN and the ACC strong armed the latest GOR as a requirement for a network, and the claims related to the ESPN contract, all of the ACC's dirty laundry is going to be aired out. Will the ACC settle to prevent that? We will see.
Click to expand...
Will it be a favorable court though? How much of this is frivolous and how much is following the law? How much is potentially thrown out and how much just cause has to be demonstrated?

I’m not a lawyer so I’m just thinking out loud.

Or, as some keep suggesting over and over, is this really not about a legal case at all and more of a public relations war in the media to inflict damage on the ACC to leverage a deal?
 

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stinger78 said:
So, I looked at the strength of schedule list for CFB 2023. Here’s what I found for SECheat teams who form The Greatest Football Conference In The World. I display number of SECheat teams every 5 slots:
1-5: 0
6-10: 2
Top 10 hardest schedules: 2

11-15: 2
16-20: 0
Top 20 hardest schedules: 4/20

21-25: 2
26-30: 1
Top 30 hardest schedules: 7/30

31-35: 1
36-40: 2
Top 40 hardest schedules: 10/40

41-45: 1
46-50: 2
Top 50 hardest schedules: 13/50

At 5 conferences, perfect balance would be 2/10, 4/20, 6/30, 8/40, 10/50. The SECheat, for all it’s purported difficulty, is in perfect balance with the four other conferences through the top 20 most difficult schedules, and pulls ahead only by 1 team in the Top 30 programs.

This would seem to indicate that, if they are a collection of the best, they are not playing each other enough to matter.
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This supports my gut feeling, which is: The SEC is indeed the best overall conference, BY A SMIDGEON. It has recently had some of the best individual teams in the country, but overall as a conference, it is slightly better BUT NOWHERE NEAR THE EXTENT THAT SHOULD JUSTIFY ALL OF THE ADORATION APPLIED TO THEM. In fact, not enough to be a tie-breaker in ....anything.
 
RonJohn

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WreckinGT said:
No. FSU isn't going to get a $40 million dollar contract as an independent. No team in college football could. But they were the 9th most watched team in college football this year. Over the last 8 years they are among the top 18 most watched teams even with some down years. They are by far the most valuable program currently unclaimed by the SEC or Big 10 from that perspective. Are the SEC and Big 10 and ESPN and FOX and Big 12 all going to blackball them because of their actions against the ACC leaving them to the Sun Belt conference? I doubt it. If networks and conferences thought this way then Texas wouldn't be in a P2 conference.
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So you agree that they won't get $40 million as an independent. I assume you also agree that they won't get $40 million if the build their own streaming service. They also won't get $40 million from the Big10 nor SEC until the current contracts for those conferences end. I know that because Oregon didn't get a full share from the Big10, even though they have a larger fan base and more viewers than FSU.

Oregon is getting $30 million which will increase by $1 million per year. In six years when FSU could be making about $50 million in the ACC, Oregon will be making $36 million in the Big10.

If FSU gets away from the ACC with no withdrawal fee and with their media rights, their current choices are:
  • Less money as an independent.
  • Less money building their own streaming service.
  • Less money as a member with partial payment from SEC/Big10.
  • Less money as a member with full payments from the Big12.
In six years, the Big10 will be negotiating a new contract, and I assume that Oregon will get a full share at that point. If FSU were taking this type of action in five years, then it would make sense. I ask again, what is FSU's end game? They aren't going to make more money in 2026, no matter where they go.

With respect to Texas. Texas has been a pain in the butt. However, they haven't leaked confidential information about media contracts. They haven't sued the Big12 and demanded that confidential media contracts be made public. FSU isn't just being a pain in the butt, they are damaging commercial relations with the very people that they want to work with to earn more money. (talking about media companies, not the ACC.)
 

WreckinGT

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RonJohn said:
So you agree that they won't get $40 million as an independent. I assume you also agree that they won't get $40 million if the build their own streaming service. They also won't get $40 million from the Big10 nor SEC until the current contracts for those conferences end. I know that because Oregon didn't get a full share from the Big10, even though they have a larger fan base and more viewers than FSU.

Oregon is getting $30 million which will increase by $1 million per year. In six years when FSU could be making about $50 million in the ACC, Oregon will be making $36 million in the Big10.

If FSU gets away from the ACC with no withdrawal fee and with their media rights, their current choices are:
  • Less money as an independent.
  • Less money building their own streaming service.
  • Less money as a member with partial payment from SEC/Big10.
  • Less money as a member with full payments from the Big12.
In six years, the Big10 will be negotiating a new contract, and I assume that Oregon will get a full share at that point. If FSU were taking this type of action in five years, then it would make sense. I ask again, what is FSU's end game? They aren't going to make more money in 2026, no matter where they go.

With respect to Texas. Texas has been a pain in the butt. However, they haven't leaked confidential information about media contracts. They haven't sued the Big12 and demanded that confidential media contracts be made public. FSU isn't just being a pain in the butt, they are damaging commercial relations with the very people that they want to work with to earn more money. (talking about media companies, not the ACC.)
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Independent vs in a conference isn't a direct comparison. FSU as a Big 10 member with promised big games against Ohio St, Michigan, Penn St, etc. is a valuable add on that the Big 10 can sell to media partners. FSU as an independent has to come up with their own schedule against god knows who. That's a bit harder to sell. They may enter the Big 10 with a reduced payout. Oregon and Washington really only got reduced payouts because of their desperation. UCLA meanwhile with their non existent football fanbase is a full fledged member. FSU might have a similar desperation problem but I doubt they would be much below the current ACC deal and long term they will eventually be a full member and make up that difference pretty quickly while also being locked in one of the two big conferences and having more post season opportunities. It would still be worth it.
 
RonJohn

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WreckinGT said:
Independent vs in a conference isn't a direct comparison. FSU as a Big 10 member with promised big games against Ohio St, Michigan, Penn St, etc. is a valuable add on that the Big 10 can sell to media partners. FSU as an independent has to come up with their own schedule against god knows who. That's a bit harder to sell. They may enter the Big 10 with a reduced payout. Oregon and Washington really only got reduced payouts because of their desperation. UCLA meanwhile with their non existent football fanbase is a full fledged member. FSU might have a similar desperation problem but I doubt they would be much below the current ACC deal and long term they will eventually be a full member and make up that difference pretty quickly while also being locked in one of the two big conferences and having more post season opportunities. It would still be worth it.
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Oregon isn't only getting $30 simply because they were desperate. They are a BIGGER brand than FSU. The Big10 media deal is already in place. To pay full shares to Oregon and Washington would mean that the TV partners would have to increase the payments by two full shares. The TV partners are not willing to do that. They other way to get "full" shares would be for every other Big10 member to reduce their share so that Oregon and Washington will be level with them. Good luck with that. The Big10 can only offer what the TV partners offer for additional teams. There are reports that the SEC tried to get more money from their ESPN contract by playing 9 conference games. The reports basically said that ESPN told the SEC that they can play 9 conference games if they want, but the media payments wouldn't change.

If FSU gets what they are asking for, they will be as desperate as Oregon was. At that point, they won't have any TV partner for 2025, or whatever year they are released from the ACC. I think most signs are that they wouldn't be a full partner in the Big10 until at least 2030, just like Washington and Oregon. They likely wouldn't be a full partner in the SEC until 2034. That is when the SEC contract expires, and ESPN hasn't been willing to negotiate for more money with the SEC. They might not be below the ACC earnings long term, but they would likely be below ACC earnings until 2030. I guess it depends on your definition of long term.
 
roadkill

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RonJohn said:
Oregon isn't only getting $30 simply because they were desperate. They are a BIGGER brand than FSU. The Big10 media deal is already in place. To pay full shares to Oregon and Washington would mean that the TV partners would have to increase the payments by two full shares. The TV partners are not willing to do that. They other way to get "full" shares would be for every other Big10 member to reduce their share so that Oregon and Washington will be level with them. Good luck with that. The Big10 can only offer what the TV partners offer for additional teams. There are reports that the SEC tried to get more money from their ESPN contract by playing 9 conference games. The reports basically said that ESPN told the SEC that they can play 9 conference games if they want, but the media payments wouldn't change.

If FSU gets what they are asking for, they will be as desperate as Oregon was. At that point, they won't have any TV partner for 2025, or whatever year they are released from the ACC. I think most signs are that they wouldn't be a full partner in the Big10 until at least 2030, just like Washington and Oregon. They likely wouldn't be a full partner in the SEC until 2034. That is when the SEC contract expires, and ESPN hasn't been willing to negotiate for more money with the SEC. They might not be below the ACC earnings long term, but they would likely be below ACC earnings until 2030. I guess it depends on your definition of long term.
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This article posted by @orientalnc https://writeforcalifornia.com/p/guest-post-fsu-vs-the-acc-the-acc makes an additional interesting point about FSU joining the B10. If they do that, and thus dilute the value of the ACC's product for the their media contract with ESPN, ESPN is likely to sue FSU. B10's contract is with Fox. So FSU would be burning a bridge with a potential media partner.
 
slugboy

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RonJohn said:
Oregon isn't only getting $30 simply because they were desperate. They are a BIGGER brand than FSU. The Big10 media deal is already in place. To pay full shares to Oregon and Washington would mean that the TV partners would have to increase the payments by two full shares. The TV partners are not willing to do that. They other way to get "full" shares would be for every other Big10 member to reduce their share so that Oregon and Washington will be level with them. Good luck with that. The Big10 can only offer what the TV partners offer for additional teams. There are reports that the SEC tried to get more money from their ESPN contract by playing 9 conference games. The reports basically said that ESPN told the SEC that they can play 9 conference games if they want, but the media payments wouldn't change.

If FSU gets what they are asking for, they will be as desperate as Oregon was. At that point, they won't have any TV partner for 2025, or whatever year they are released from the ACC. I think most signs are that they wouldn't be a full partner in the Big10 until at least 2030, just like Washington and Oregon. They likely wouldn't be a full partner in the SEC until 2034. That is when the SEC contract expires, and ESPN hasn't been willing to negotiate for more money with the SEC. They might not be below the ACC earnings long term, but they would likely be below ACC earnings until 2030. I guess it depends on your definition of long term.
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It’s surprising, but you’re right:
frontofficesports.com

At Least There's No Debating College Football's Most-watched Team

With most major viewership metrics now available, the results confirm that blue-blood programs and rivalries continue to dominate.
frontofficesports.com frontofficesports.com

Viewers per game, 2023:

  • Alabama 7.12M (11 games)
  • Ohio State 6.05M (11)
  • Colorado 6M (9)
  • Georgia 5.9M (11)
  • Michigan 5.61M (12)
  • Tennessee 4.57M (7)
  • Oregon 4.43M (10)
  • Texas 4.26M (12)
  • Florida State 4.16M (12)
  • Notre Dame 4.15M (10)
 

WreckinGT

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slugboy said:
It’s surprising, but you’re right:
frontofficesports.com

At Least There's No Debating College Football's Most-watched Team

With most major viewership metrics now available, the results confirm that blue-blood programs and rivalries continue to dominate.
frontofficesports.com frontofficesports.com

Viewers per game, 2023:

  • Alabama 7.12M (11 games)
  • Ohio State 6.05M (11)
  • Colorado 6M (9)
  • Georgia 5.9M (11)
  • Michigan 5.61M (12)
  • Tennessee 4.57M (7)
  • Oregon 4.43M (10)
  • Texas 4.26M (12)
  • Florida State 4.16M (12)
  • Notre Dame 4.15M (10)
Click to expand...
Probably worth noting that 10 million people watched Oregon play Colorado. The third highest TV viewers of any game this season.
 
RonJohn

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roadkill said:
This article posted by @orientalnc https://writeforcalifornia.com/p/guest-post-fsu-vs-the-acc-the-acc makes an additional interesting point about FSU joining the B10. If they do that, and thus dilute the value of the ACC's product for the their media contract with ESPN, ESPN is likely to sue FSU. B10's contract is with Fox. So FSU would be burning a bridge with a potential media partner.
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I don't think I read that article before. One thing: It isn't because of dilution of the media contract that he predicts ESPN would sue FSU. It is because FSU disclosed trade secrets to the public. He is saying that if FSU is no longer a business partner of ESPN, then it increases the likelihood that ESPN would file a lawsuit for that disclosure.
 
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