Conference Realignment

[forensicbuzz]

This is where we differ. I believe that sEcSPN would much prefer their SECheat football property to excel. It has a much higher upside than does ACC football. They stand to make a whole of money off of that conference if they reach their potential. Just by the nature of ACC football programs I don't see the potential being nearly as high. That is not to say that we aren't or cannot be very profitable for them, but the potential profit from hordes of squint-eyed bumpkin SECheat football fans from the Carolinas to Texas is *enormous.*

Especially when college football games become a PPV event. To me, that's where the SEC is headed.

 

[WreckinGT]

I misinterpreted your post because it sounded like you were only evaluating the value ESPN got whether or not if Bama got in. If Bama wasn't in, it was FSU so ESPN wasn't really losing much (if anything). The SEC/Sanky definitely cared.

Regardless, in hindsight, one can argue that keeping FSU out could ultimately cause more damage in the long run to ESPN if it causes the ACC to implode.

This assumes that ESPN even cares if the ACC implodes. Aside from FSU, Clemson, and Notre Dame away ACC games, the vast majority of other ACC content is stashed away on the ACC network or the CW. With ESPN expanding it's SEC inventory, and with expansion of new teams, and the possibility of a 9 game schedule coming, there will be few prime content slots for the ACC to claim. With FSU and Clemson obviously out the door at some point, who knows if ESPN has any long term plans for the conference. The future of big time college football in general is the SEC vs the Big 10. ESPN vs FOX. That's where we are headed. Everything else is filler and ESPN can find filler elsewhere.

 

[stinger78]

This assumes that ESPN even cares if the ACC implodes. Aside from FSU, Clemson, and Notre Dame away ACC games, the vast majority of other ACC content is stashed away on the ACC network or the CW. With ESPN expanding it's SEC inventory, and with expansion of new teams, and the possibility of a 9 game schedule coming, there will be few prime content slots for the ACC to claim. With FSU and Clemson obviously out the door at some point, who knows if ESPN has any long term plans for the conference. The future of big time college football in general is the SEC vs the Big 10. ESPN vs FOX. That's where we are headed. Everything else is filler and ESPN can find filler elsewhere.

I think they care. They have a lot of $$ invested in the ACC/ACCN and don't want that to go up in smoke. However, I also believe they know for sure that their SECheat inventory has far more growth potential than their ACC inventory, and that ACC inventory might be getting much smaller if F$U and Climpson find a way out.

I mean, just look at what's going on: Two of the bluest of blue bloods (UTA and OU) just sold their soul to get into the SECheat while the ACC's two top programs (F$U and Clemson) are suing to get out. If that doesn't tell someone what's going on I don't know what will.

 

[cpf2001]

I’m skeptical about growth potential for SEC content. Who’s going to start watching Bama or UGA games that isn’t already after their recent runs?

IMO I think the bigger concern is they ACC viewership could shrink/collapse and would not be shocked if ESPN cared but acted opposite what we’d do - if they wanted the ACC to fall apart to get out of that deal and only keep the winners that moved to the SEC. How much money are they paying for ACCN or other “filler” games and how much return do they get on those compared to something cheaper?

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

I mean, just look at what's going on: Two of the bluest of blue bloods (UTA and OU) just sold their soul to get into the SECheat while the ACC's two top programs (F$U and Clemson) are suing to get out. If that doesn't tell someone what's going on I don't know what will.

This is the entire crux of everything. Great leadership vs. Poor leadership. That’s what it all comes down too.

 

[Vespidae]

How much money are they paying for ACCN or other “filler” games and how much return do they get on those compared to something cheaper?

ESPN makes about $140 million in profit from games broadcast on the ACCN.

 

[Vespidae]

This is the entire crux of everything. Great leadership vs. Poor leadership. That’s what it all comes down too.

Really? FSU and Miami were dominate teams in the entire CFB. Had they simply maintained their programs, the ACC would be in a very different place. FSU so famously disinvested that Jimbo Fisher begged to leave. Only new university leadership changed that.

A league is no better or worse than the individual universities that make it up.

 

[cpf2001]

ESPN makes about $140 million in profit from games broadcast on the ACCN.

Where from? As previously discussed at length, it’s not getting premium ad rates or high viewership numbers, and they’re paying millions to the league.

If it’s a big profit engine that could get even bigger if the programs did better then all the “they’re trying to promote the SEC for $$” seems extra ludicrous

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

Really? FSU and Miami were dominate teams in the entire CFB. Had they simply maintained their programs, the ACC would be in a very different place. FSU so famously disinvested that Jimbo Fisher begged to leave. Only new university leadership changed that.

A league is no better or worse than the individual universities that make it up.

And there it is - the usual accepting of excuses by ACC fans. The ACC leadership is mediocre to poor because the ACC fans accept it so there is zero urgency. Meanwhile, Sankey sees that Florida is down, Saban was getting old, and Auburn, A&M, Tenn, and others are in the forever mid level tier so what does he do? Hope that Florida turns it around or hopes that Bama doesn’t hire another Dubose? Nope, he goes and gets Texas and Oklahoma. Meanwhile, our fans are saying, “if only Miami returned to glory from 40 years ago…”. It’s just laughable. I will give the ACC leadership credit for bringing in SMU. Under NIL they will become a power because their fans care and have a lot desire to right some wrongs. However, they will leave as well because they aren’t stupid. They are in the P4 club now and just have to shuffle their way into a P2 at some point.

 

[RonJohn]

Where from? As previously discussed at length, it’s not getting premium ad rates or high viewership numbers, and they’re paying millions to the league.

If it’s a big profit engine that could get even bigger if the programs did better then all the “they’re trying to promote the SEC for $$” seems extra ludicrous

Carriage fees and ads. The ACCN probably gets something like 30-50 cents per subscriber in a non-ACC state. It probably gets something like $1.50 per subscriber in a state with an ACC team. If I understand the ACCN model correctly, ESPN owns half (or about half) and the ACC owns half (or about half). They split expenses and profits. I think @Vespidae used the per school profit from the ACCN to estimate the ESPN profit from the ACCN. Something like the per school times 14 or 15. I doubt he is exact, but from an order of magnitude sense it is probably very close.

 

[Vespidae]

Where from? As previously discussed at length, it’s not getting premium ad rates or high viewership numbers, and they’re paying millions to the league.

If it’s a big profit engine that could get even bigger if the programs did better then all the “they’re trying to promote the SEC for $$” seems extra ludicrous

My assumption would be advertising and carriage fees. Regardless, it’s an established fact that the ACCN is profitable.

 

[Vespidae]

And there it is - the usual accepting of excuses by ACC fans. The ACC leadership is mediocre to poor because the ACC fans accept it so there is zero urgency. Meanwhile, Sankey sees that Florida is down, Saban was getting old, and Auburn, A&M, Tenn, and others are in the forever mid level tier so what does he do? Hope that Florida turns it around or hopes that Bama doesn’t hire another Dubose? Nope, he goes and gets Texas and Oklahoma. Meanwhile, our fans are saying, “if only Miami returned to glory from 40 years ago…”. It’s just laughable. I will give the ACC leadership credit for bringing in SMU. Under NIL they will become a power because their fans care and have a lot desire to right some wrongs. However, they will leave as well because they aren’t stupid. They are in the P4 club now and just have to shuffle their way into a P2 at some point.

It’s an established fact that FSU stopped investing in its athletic program.

Your theory on Sankey’s decision is equally incorrect. Sankey himself described it as a challenge from Scott Stricklin, AD at Florida, who asked, “If the SEC means more, why don’t we get teams where it just means more?”

Combined, the two programs have 110 national championships across all sports. THAT is why Sankey agreed to pursue them.

FSU made a conscious decision to de-emphasize its investment in athletics and that wasn’t 40 years ago. It began around 2015 and that leadership has been completely replaced. Does the ACC manage that? No, they have to put up with it the same way Florida has to put up with the tough stretch they are experiencing.

As to the ACC, I find it hilarious that you speak of “ACC fans” in the same thread as those calling for Tech to join any conferences but the ACC.

 

[iceeater1969]

Really? FSU and Miami were dominate teams in the entire CFB. Had they simply maintained their programs, the ACC would be in a very different place. FSU so famously disinvested that Jimbo Fisher begged to leave. Only new university leadership changed that.

A league is no better or worse than the individual universities that make it up.

Plus how much are they willing to ACTIVELY HELP THIER FOOTBALL PROGRAM WIN AND WHAT "THEY DO" WHEN ITS NOT WORKING.

New Gt Prez has us headed in right direction and is giving it his all.

 

[Richard7125]

Carriage fees and ads. The ACCN probably gets something like 30-50 cents per subscriber in a non-ACC state. It probably gets something like $1.50 per subscriber in a state with an ACC team. If I understand the ACCN model correctly, ESPN owns half (or about half) and the ACC owns half (or about half). They split expenses and profits. I think @Vespidae used the per school profit from the ACCN to estimate the ESPN profit from the ACCN. Something like the per school times 14 or 15. I doubt he is exact, but from an order of magnitude sense it is probably very close.

I'm pretty sure ESPN owns the ACCN, but they split the profits 50-50 with the ACC as part of the contract.

 

[stinger78]

I’m skeptical about growth potential for SEC content. Who’s going to start watching Bama or UGA games that isn’t already after their recent runs?

IMO I think the bigger concern is they ACC viewership could shrink/collapse and would not be shocked if ESPN cared but acted opposite what we’d do - if they wanted the ACC to fall apart to get out of that deal and only keep the winners that moved to the SEC. How much money are they paying for ACCN or other “filler” games and how much return do they get on those compared to something cheaper?

You may be right. We’ll have to wait and see. Part of me says the goose can’t get any bigger through a sustaining innovation (tweaking the same product model), but they can reinvent the product through a disruptive innovation (moving to a largely new product model). That’s very dangerous, though, and can blow the whole thing. It appears to me this is the path they’ve chosen. We’ll see how it works out.

 

[Richard7125]

This assumes that ESPN even cares if the ACC implodes. Aside from FSU, Clemson, and Notre Dame away ACC games, the vast majority of other ACC content is stashed away on the ACC network or the CW. With ESPN expanding it's SEC inventory, and with expansion of new teams, and the possibility of a 9 game schedule coming, there will be few prime content slots for the ACC to claim. With FSU and Clemson obviously out the door at some point, who knows if ESPN has any long term plans for the conference. The future of big time college football in general is the SEC vs the Big 10. ESPN vs FOX. That's where we are headed. Everything else is filler and ESPN can find filler elsewhere.

At some point the marginal costs will exceed the marginal benefits of adding more schools to the SEC and Big10. Personally, I think we’re already there as evidence of new schools only getting a percentage of the payout. When gross dollars of the next media deals get bigger, but fail to increase the individual payouts to each school as expected, the Michigans, OSUs, and Bamas of the world are going to be pissed that Vandy, Northwestern and Rutgers are getting the same payouts.

 

[Richard7125]

There is some behind the scenes scheming in international soccer to create a superleague of 12 teams (the top teams from Premier League, La Liga, Serie A). The premier league is the richest soccer league but the top teams realize they can make more money if they put together just the super rich teams of each league. I could see this happening in College Football. There are too many “decent teams” to consolidate into the SEC and Big10.

 

[stinger78]

There is some behind the scenes scheming in international soccer to create a superleague of 12 teams (the top teams from Premier League, La Liga, Serie A). The premier league is the richest soccer league but the top teams realize they can make more money if they put together just the super rich teams of each league. I could see this happening in College Football. There are too many “decent teams” to consolidate into the SEC and Big10.

This is the disruptive innovation that I refer to for CFB. It could soar or it could floo. Many, if not most, CFB fans are very different from fans of professional teams. Not sure they’d get the broad support that’s currently there for “premier” league CFB. I know I wouldn’t watch it.

 

[Vespidae]

There is some behind the scenes scheming in international soccer to create a superleague of 12 teams (the top teams from Premier League, La Liga, Serie A). The premier league is the richest soccer league but the top teams realize they can make more money if they put together just the super rich teams of each league. I could see this happening in College Football. There are too many “decent teams” to consolidate into the SEC and Big10.

This has been discussed. I would not be surprised if the new Big Ten/SEC collaborative does exactly this. What I have heard is that criteria will be introduced that requires a certain stadium capacity and average attendance, viewership, enrollment, athletic budget, etc ... that elevates 30-ish programs. Those will qualify for expanded financial opportunities. Others will simply get some standard payout as a simple conference member, but not much beyond that.

Vandy, for example, would get a standard payout for appearing on the SEC Network (just like MS State, South Carolina, etc) and substantially more if on a premier network ... ABC, ESPN, etc and also more for post season. That's not likely to happen, but it could.

It will, as you say, reward those who are continually improving to better play and more attractive fans, but not penalize them if they don't. Water seeks its own level.

 

[Vespidae]

This is the disruptive innovation that I refer to for CFB. It could soar or it could floo. Many, if not most, CFB fans are very different from fans of professional teams. Not sure they’d get the broad support that’s currently there for “premier” league CFB. I know I wouldn’t watch it.

It's already happening. Surveys show that a large majority of CFB fans (not all and it may not include you) already have at least two teams they pull for. That's because the way the CFP works, many teams are eliminated by the end of September. So, they pull for their Primary until then, and that one fails, they switch to Secondary.

You will see more and more narrative around "Premiere League" teams for that reason, not necessarily by conference.