Conference Realignment

[Techster]

EDIT: I also believe that FSU wants out of the conference eventually no matter what. When they are able to, they will leave. It is kind of like having a wife who wants to leave the marriage, and the husband capitulating to everything that she wants. She ends up leaving anyway and he is broke and broken.

You just now came to that conclusion? I'll go even further, and I'll repeat what I said quite a few times: FSU isn't the only school that wants out of the conference no matter what, and there will be at least 4-6 "major" ACC schools that will leave once the opportunity presents itself. Expect GT to be in that group. FSU is just the only school willing to put its head above the firing line first. The ACC as we know it is entering it's last years.

I also said the Big 12 will be a player. They are trying to position themselves as the next tier below the SEC and B1G. This is a game of inventory and media partners. The Big 12 has the two biggest media players in the college sports game as partners: ESPN/ABC and Fox Sports. I don't think ESPN cares either way if the ACC implodes because they'll just absorb the schools they want into their conference portfolios (SEC/Big 12) and consolidate expenses, and Fox Sports will absorb the other schools they want in their collegiate crown jewel (the B1G). People can scoff that the Big 12 right now doesn't make the same amount the ACC does (they are not far behind), but the fact is their leadership has shown they are willing to be aggressive and think outside of the box. As I keep saying, Conferences and media partners can create brands, but you can't create markets. The Big 12 has expanded to some very large markets and will have the two biggest media partners help improve the brands of the schools under their banners. The major media companies are just as implicit in all the conference expansion as the schools and conferences are.

ACC leadership is stuck in the past and is just treading water to survive. Unfortunately, that hurts GT until we can find a way out of the ACC.

 

[RonJohn]

You just now came to that conclusion? I'll go even further, and I'll repeat what I said quite a few times: FSU isn't the only school that wants out of the conference no matter what, and there will be at least 4-6 "major" ACC schools that will leave once the opportunity presents itself. Expect GT to be in that group. FSU is just the only school willing to put its head above the firing line first. The ACC as we know it is entering it's last years.

I also said the Big 12 will be a player. They are trying to position themselves as the next tier below the SEC and B1G. This is a game of inventory and media partners. The Big 12 has the two biggest media players in the college sports game as partners: ESPN/ABC and Fox Sports. I don't think ESPN cares either way if the ACC implodes because they'll just absorb the schools they want into their conference portfolios (SEC/Big 12) and consolidate expenses, and Fox Sports will absorb the other schools they want in their collegiate crown jewel (the B1G). People can scoff that the Big 12 right now doesn't make the same amount the ACC does (they are not far behind), but the fact is their leadership has shown they are willing to be aggressive and think outside of the box. As I keep saying, Conferences and media partners can create brands, but you can't create markets. The Big 12 has expanded to some very large markets and will have the two biggest media partners help improve the brands of the schools under their banners. The major media companies are just as implicit in all the conference expansion as the schools and conferences are.

ACC leadership is stuck in the past and is just treading water to survive. Unfortunately, that hurts GT until we can find a way out of the ACC.

I didn't just come to that conclusion. However, FSU does not have a clear path to exit the ACC currently. They are like a person who bought a new Range Rover for $120k, and now doesn't like the car or the payments. They want to get rid of it, but they still owe $115k and the car is only worth $85k. They don't have the $30k to pay off the loan if they sell the car. They could just stop paying and let the car get repossessed, but they would still owe $50k after the car was auctioned off. (leave the ACC without media rights) What they will end up doing is making the payments until the present value is close to what the loan value is so they can sell it. (wait until around 2030 when the value of future media rights is much lower than now). The person with the car will gripe and complain about it the entire time. They will blame the bank for making them keep the car, even though basic math could have predicted this scenario if they had paid attention before taking action to buy the car. FSU, in fact praised the GOR and the fact that it would prevent people from leaving the conference when they signed the document. Just like the bank doesn't force people to get themselves stuck in a car, the ACC did not force FSU into the current situation. They went into it with eyes wide open and understood the consequences. FSU's current position isn't the fault of the ACC, it is a result of their own decisions.

I still don't see the love for the Big12. From a football school perspective, they are not much better than a G5 conference. A significant portion of their membership is very recent G5. The projections I have seen show the media payouts to be lower for the Big12 than the ACC, as you state. If they find alternative sources of revenue, will the other conferences just ignore them? If FSU and Clemson leave the ACC next year, then the ACC will be exactly what the Big12 is at the current moment. Currently that isn't the case. Twitter is full of people who knock the ACC and praise the Big12, but it is all insane bluster.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

I still don't see the love for the Big12.

They aren't us. The grass is always greener when you aren't getting what you want where you currently are...

 

[LT 1967]

Greg Sankey's comments on further SEC expansion. He didn't say NEVER, but he seems content at 16 members for now. Watching the FSU and Clemson and FSU lawsuits.

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[stinger78]

You cannot compare the ACC media markets with any others except the B1G. The only major city on the east coast not part of the ACC is Philly. Think about that for a moment. From Miami to Boston, the ACC has them all. That’s Boston, New York City, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, DC, Raleigh/Durham, Charlotte, Greenville-Spartanburg, Columbia, Atlanta, Tallahassee, Jacksonville, Orlando, and Miami. Plus now the ACC has added the Dallas metroplex and San Francisco.

 

[LT 1967]

Good article on the ACC championship game below. Near the end of this article, see the positive information about the ACC Championship Game attendance, Teams in the CFP, and National Championships. The ACC never seems to receive the media credit for the things ACC football has accomplished. I believe the reason for that is the lack of a Marketing effort coming from Commissioner Phillips and the ACC office.

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[stinger78]

Good article on the ACC championship game below. Near the end of this article, see the positive information about the ACC Championship Game attendance, Teams in the CFP, and National Championships. The ACC never seems to receive the media credit for the things ACC football has accomplished.

MSN

www.msn.com

Yep, like I said, the conference is not far off from where we want it to be. The ACC has just never had the level of conference unity that the B1G and SECheat have generated (with the help of the media). The ACC is a very good conference - easily #3 but not far behind #2.

 

[slugboy]

Greg Sankey's comments on further SEC expansion. He didn't say NEVER, but he seems content at 16 members for now. Watching the FSU and Clemson and FSU lawsuits.

MSN

www.msn.com

I think he said something similar months before acquiring Texas and Oklahoma.

Bigger question is what would ESPN pony up for matchups with Clemson and FSU. Probably something, but enough to fund full shares?

 

[orientalnc]

I think he said something similar months before acquiring Texas and Oklahoma.

Bigger question is what would ESPN pony up for matchups with Clemson and FSU. Probably something, but enough to fund full shares?

ESPN already has Clemson - South Carolina and FSU - Florida. So you add Clemson - uga and Bama v. either, which they would have now, and you wonder why ESPN would add to the pot. Maybe Texas or OU v. the two would add something, but maybe not. Why does the pot get sweetened?

 

[RonJohn]

ESPN already has Clemson - South Carolina and FSU - Florida. So you add Clemson - uga and Bama v. either, which they would have now, and you wonder why ESPN would add to the pot. Maybe Texas or OU v. the two would add something, but maybe not. Why does the pot get sweetened?

They already have Clemson vs the mutts and Clemson vs LSU twice in the next four years. They also have FSU vs the mutts and FSU vs Alabama twice in the next four years. Those are already scheduled.

 

[slugboy]

ESPN already has Clemson - South Carolina and FSU - Florida. So you add Clemson - uga and Bama v. either, which they would have now, and you wonder why ESPN would add to the pot. Maybe Texas or OU v. the two would add something, but maybe not. Why does the pot get sweetened?

I guess the question would be how much more ESPN would be willing to pay for FSU vs Auburn and Missouri.

Since they turned down extra SEC conference games, you might guess low.

 

[orientalnc]

I guess the question would be how much more ESPN would be willing to pay for FSU vs Auburn and Missouri.

Since they turned down extra SEC conference games, you might guess low.

FSU - Auburn seems like a local interest rivalry, but I might be wrong.

 

[Vespidae]

I guess the question would be how much more ESPN would be willing to pay for FSU vs Auburn and Missouri.

Since they turned down extra SEC conference games, you might guess low.

FSU’s ratings are a function of who it plays. I can look at the numbers, but my prediction is that it will be lower than what they generate today. Be careful what you wish for, Cookie.

 

[orientalnc]

FSU’s ratings are a function of who it plays. I can look at the numbers, but my prediction is that it will be lower than what they generate today. Be careful what you wish for, Cookie.

If I am choosing which games to watch on a Fall Saturday, FSU versus Mississippi State or Arkansas or Vandy or Kentucky would not be on my radar. At all. The same could be true for several matchups with FSU. And, I bet that is true of most college football fans.

 

[stinger78]

I’ve never had much interest in any football game that doesn’t involve a team I support.

 

[orientalnc]

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/big-ten-sec-unlikely-to-add-florida-state-acc-survives?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=BrettMcMurphy

 

[RonJohn]

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/big-ten-sec-unlikely-to-add-florida-state-acc-survives?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=BrettMcMurphy

McMurphy has anonymous quotes from multiple sources. They are all anonymous so I take them with a grain of salt. However, the quotes include things that I have said in this thread about FSU not being an attractive partner based on the way they are handling themselves:

“Look what they did: getting the attorney general involved, accusing [former ACC commissioner] John Swofford of rigging the television rights to help his son, filing a suit to expose ESPN’s TV deals — something the other three power leagues are against, by the way,” the source said. “They’re not a good partner. There’s no congeniality. No one wants that.

“It’s not about FSU getting out of the ACC’s Grant of Rights. They’re not a fit.”

I haven't seen many people, if any at all, pointing this out. I think it is obvious. People in this thread have said that it is all about football and money, and that FSU can act any way they want to and the Big10 and SEC will still froth over having them. There isn't enough money from either to provide a full share, at least until the current media contracts run out. Anyone who thinks that going into business with a shady and obstinate business partner makes sense is wrong. Even if there was money to be made, the risks of an out of control business partner can't be made up for by profit.

 

[WreckinGT]

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/big-ten-sec-unlikely-to-add-florida-state-acc-survives?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=BrettMcMurphy

Interesting wording in some of these quotes.

One source, however, cautioned “never say never” about FSU going to the Big Ten because there could be a path if the ACC disintegrates.

“There is no appetite among the presidents unless there is some catastrophic development with the ACC and it forces [the Big Ten] into a decision,” the source said.

I guess FSU would suddenly make financial sense and be a good partner if the ACC implodes.

 

[Bennett]

I’m sure both these schools will be plenty attractive once they leave the ACC. This is nothing but smoke and mirrors

 

[beeteam]

I’m sure both these schools will be plenty attractive once they leave the ACC. This is nothing but smoke and mirrors

I agree 100%. I bet this is just a bargaining ploy to make FSU and Clemson a little more desperate and willing to accept terms more agreeable to the P2.