Conference Realignment

[Northeast Stinger]

I agree with you. Since much of the endowment money came in the form of before tax donations, there are tax law issues, but I believe private universities should be able to use the endowment in ways they decide helps the university.

There are also public universities with huge endowments (see University of Texas).

List of colleges and universities in the United States by endowment - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Always stunned by the size of Harvard’s endowment. They could give everyone free tuition AND buy the best team in football if they wanted.

 

[CEB]

ESPN has issued their Strength of Schedules and Power Index for 2024 College Football. By their estimate, GT comes in at #9 in Strength of Schedule and #54 Power Index. Doesn't sound like a good combination.

The file called Resume is Strength of Schedule.

Note that GT is by far the highest ranked ACC team as far as Strength of Schedule. Next ACC teams are Clemson at #26 and Stanford at #28. Note that there are 9 SEC teams with GT in the top 10 Strength of Schedule.

So GT is the only “non-SEC” team in the top 10 and the only team in the top 25 from outside the BIG or SEC….
Fits the narrative

 

[stinger78]

So GT is the only “non-SEC” team in the top 10 and the only team in the top 25 from outside the BIG or SEC….
Fits the narrative

Exactly. Lets you know this season will play out like all the rest. sEcSPN is already resetting The Narrative to assure maximum viewership (implied = veneration) of their most expensive property. It’s a good business practice.

 

[Vespidae]

So GT is the only “non-SEC” team in the top 10 and the only team in the top 25 from outside the BIG or SEC….
Fits the narrative

The Data Jocks say this about SOS (for college football): "Personally, I don’t think strength of schedule is a valuable metric to compute at all. SOS is not important on its own. Rather, it is only valuable as context for interpreting a team’s record. Instead of looking at the strength of schedule explicitly, I think it is better to come up with team-quality metrics that explicitly take into account the quality of opponents."

They go on to talk about the use of graph theory and why measuring strength of schedule requires consideration of the overall structure of “who played who” and how well mixed the schedules of the leagues are."

Geeky stuff. I'm not sure I'd spend much time on it until the end of the season.

 

[stinger78]

To continue… there are eleven (11) SECheat teams in the sEcSPN projected Top 20. Over half of the Top 20 and about 2/3 of the SECheat. Process that for a moment.

Unless those 11 don’t play more than 2-3 of the other 11, they are either talking a lot of 3/4-loss teams or half the conference with 1/2 conference losses and the other half with 1/2 conference wins. Not sure how it’s mathematically possible to have two-thirds of your conference be there in the end.

I think the answer is they don’t expect them to be there in the end, but they see a chance that many could. Therein is the bias. While they project 11 SECheat teams, they also only project 2 ACC teams. Guess which two.

Bottom line, sEcSPN is saying that it is more probable that TAMU, Missouri, Auburn, and Florida finish in the Top 20 than for NCSU, Louisville, UNC, VA Tech, GA Tech, Duke, and/or Miami to finish in the Top 20. But who will each of those be playing?

 

[stinger78]

To continue… there are eleven (11) SECheat teams in the sEcSPN projected Top 20. Over half of the Top 20 and about 2/3 of the SECheat. Process that for a moment.

Unless those 11 don’t play more than 2-3 of the other 11, they are either talking a lot of 3/4-loss teams or half the conference with 1/2 conference losses and the other half with 1/2 conference wins. Not sure how it’s mathematically possible to have two-thirds of your conference be there in the end.

I think the answer is they don’t expect them to be there in the end, but they see a chance that many could. Therein is the bias. While they project 11 SECheat teams, they also only project 2 ACC teams. Guess which two.

Bottom line, sEcSPN is saying that it is more probable that TAMU, Missouri, Auburn, and Florida finish in the Top 20 than for NCSU, Louisville, UNC, VA Tech, GA Tech, Duke, and/or Miami to finish in the Top 20. But who will each of those be playing?

To expound a bit further, consider these three teams from the SECheat: Auburn, Florida, and TAMU. Auburn was 6-7 last year, TAMU was 7-6, and Florida was 5-7. Both Auburn and Florida haven’t had winning records since 2020.

 

[CEB]

The Data Jocks say this about SOS (for college football): "Personally, I don’t think strength of schedule is a valuable metric to compute at all. SOS is not important on its own. Rather, it is only valuable as context for interpreting a team’s record. Instead of looking at the strength of schedule explicitly, I think it is better to come up with team-quality metrics that explicitly take into account the quality of opponents."

They go on to talk about the use of graph theory and why measuring strength of schedule requires consideration of the overall structure of “who played who” and how well mixed the schedules of the leagues are."

Geeky stuff. I'm not sure I'd spend much time on it until the end of the season.

This sounds like just the sort of plausible deniability they’ll call up if the data spits out a result they don’t like in December….

 

[Vespidae]

Bottom line, sEcSPN is saying that it is more probable that TAMU, Missouri, Auburn, and Florida finish in the Top 20 than for NCSU, Louisville, UNC, VA Tech, GA Tech, Duke, and/or Miami to finish in the Top 20. But who will each of those be playing?

I don't think that is what is saying.

SoS matters in CFB to some extent because 75% of the games played are within your own conference. That means there isn't much opportunity to measure out of conference performance and you are left with a) how many games are played, b) how many teams are in the conference, and c) how representative the schedules are of the entire CFB division.

Is it harder to play an SEC schedule than playing Tulsa, Bowling Green, and UTEP? Probably.

If you really want to get serious about SoS, you have to reduce the size of the division to better reflect the number of good teams and bad teams each one plays. With 120-ish teams, that's nearly impossible to do.

That's why its useful to use in the NFL (small number of teams, so schedules reflect the quality of the entire league) and not in the CFP (large number of teams, schedules don't reflect the quality of the entire division).

I think you could use SoS within a conference, but it's less interesting across conferences at the present time.

 

[Vespidae]

This sounds like just the sort of plausible deniability they’ll call up if the data spits out a result they don’t like in December….

FWIW, the Data Jocks call ESPN's methodology (for football) horse manure, mathematically speaking.

 

[orientalnc]

It helps if you rarely play a decent team OOC and your conference opponents are all highly rated:

SEC OOC opponents (ACC teams in bold):

uga – Clemson, Tenn Tech, UMass, GT
Missouri – Murray St, BC, Buffalo, UMass
Tenn – Chatt, NC St, Kent ST, UTEP
Kentucky – So Miss, Ohio, Murray St, Louisville
FL – Miami, Samford, UCF, FSU
SC – ODU, Akron, Wofford, Clemson
Vandy – VT, Alcorn St, Ga St, Ball St

Bama – WKU, USF, Wisconsin, Mercer
Miss – Furman, MTSU, WF, Ga Sou
LSU – USC, Nicholls, UCLA, Sa Ala
TexAM – ND, McNeese, BG, N Mex St
Aub – AlaAM, Cal, N Mex, UL Monroe
MissSt – E Ky, Ariz St, Toledo, UMass
Ark – Ark-PB, OklaSt, UAB, La Tech

Texas – Col St, Mich, USTA, UL Monroe
Okla – Temple, Houston, Tulane, Maine

 

[Vespidae]

It helps if you rarely play a decent team OOC and your conference opponents are all highly rated:

SEC OOC opponents (ACC teams in bold):

uga – Clemson, Tenn Tech, UMass, GT
Missouri – Murray St, BC, Buffalo, UMass
Tenn – Chatt, NC St, Kent ST, UTEP
Kentucky – So Miss, Ohio, Murray St, Louisville
FL – Miami, Samford, UCF, FSU
SC – ODU, Akron, Wofford, Clemson
Vandy – VT, Alcorn St, Ga St, Ball St

Bama – WKU, USF, Wisconsin, Mercer
Miss – Furman, MTSU, WF, Ga Sou
LSU – USC, Nicholls, UCLA, Sa Ala
TexAM – ND, McNeese, BG, N Mex St
Aub – AlaAM, Cal, N Mex, UL Monroe
MissSt – E Ky, Ariz St, Toledo, UMass
Ark – Ark-PB, OklaSt, UAB, La Tech

Texas – Col St, Mich, USTA, UL Monroe
Okla – Temple, Houston, Tulane, Maine

You don’t see the NFC West scheduling its own games. Neither should college football conferences.

 

[RonJohn]

You don’t see the NFC West scheduling its own games. Neither should college football conferences.

That is part of what I listed as an advantage of a super league. Teams like Alabama and the mutts wouldn't like it, but the NFL makes schedules every year based on the previous season's records. (for out of division) The very good teams play each other. The mediocre teams play each other. The bad teams play each other. It makes for exciting matchups, and it gives every team a valid opportunity to make the playoffs. The very good teams wouldn't like it because Alabama would have a schedule with several teams like Michigan, Texas, Ohio State, etc. It makes it more difficult for teams to keep repeating 11 win seasons. It makes it more difficult to continually make the playoffs. However, it does provide more fans with hope that they will make the playoffs, and drives interest in the entire process up.

 

[Techster]

I hope you're right. But listening to the YouTubers speculate about which team is going where, Tech is NEVER even mentioned.

It's because Youtubers pander to big fan bases to drive up their views, and they're just regurgitating popular social media speculation. NO ONE saw GT/Maryland/Rutgers getting an invite to the B1G until it happened. No one saw UCLA/USC happening until it happened...nor Oregon/Washington. Actually, I did speculate before it happened that B1G is going to try to follow up on USC/UCLA with more West Coast teams. At the time I speculated it would be among Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Arizon/ASU...and they eventually added Washington and Oregon...at discounted rate. Maryland and Rutgers also came aboard the B1G at discounted rates. IMO, B1G will round back to Stanford and one of the Arizona schools before it's all said and done. Book mark this and let's see where the B1G is in 2036. B1G's strategy isn't a secret if you've been paying attention: Build the conference upon schools in major markets where there are professional sports teams (namely NFL franchises). The B1G is playing a bigger game than any of the other conference, including the SEC, and it's why they are the most lucrative conference. Other conferences are struggling to stay on the board playing chess with the SEC, while the B1G is playing 3D chess. They're playing an entirely different game. If you look at this heat map, you'll have a very good clue the future of the B1G:

USA Population Density Map | MapBusinessOnline

This basic demographic map of the USA presents the latest Census update for population density per Sq KM by county. Visualize data with MapBusinessOnline.

www.mapbusinessonline.com

It's often said expansion is a 50+ year decision made by University Presidents, not fans. Fans look at butts in the seats and how well a team is doing the past few years, Presidents (especially B1G Presidents) look at demographic/economic headwinds, academics, athletics, and cultural fit. The Southeast and Texas/Arizona/NorCal are the only regions with major markets and schools untapped by the B1G. Outside of NorCal, the Southeast, Texas, and Arizona are the biggest areas of population and economic growth that the B1G does not have a school in. That will change over the next decade.

Which brings me to GT. Everything that made GT attractive to the B1G back in 2012/2013 is even stronger now. Atlanta is not only the South's biggest economic center, it's also the South's largest metro area (as well as the US's 6th largest metro area). Atlanta has the biggest concentration of B1G alumni in the South. Some on here want to say linear TV isn't as important as it was 10 years ago, but the link I posted some weeks back overwhelmingly says linear TV isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

What college football teams are the most popular to watch on TV?

When it comes to college football ratings, teams in the big conferences are the ones that get the big numbers.

sportsnaut.com

If you want to see the importance of being in a P2 conference with compelling matchups, look at Vanderbilt's ratings. In what world does Vanderbilt average close to 2.5 million viewers and UNC and UCLA can't even break 2 million?! That's the effect of being in a P2 conference with the full weight of major networks pushing the narrative of the SEC and B1G. Now imagine GT, in Atlanta with a huge B1G alumni presence, playing a B1G schedule (that now includes USC/Oregon/Washington/UCLA). GT would easily average what Vanderbilt is (we're not far off at the moment).

All of the above is not even mentioning GT's academics. That matters to the B1G, although not as strongly as GT's potential to enhance the B1G's brand in fastest growing region in the US.

There's a lot of recency bias with respect to GT because of the Collins years, and the Flex Option years of Paul Johnson. Brands can be built with money and smart hires (see Washington, Oregon, UCF, FSU in early 90's). Markets and the economics/population explosion of Atlanta can not.

 

[billga99]

ESPN has issued their Strength of Schedules and Power Index for 2024 College Football. By their estimate, GT comes in at #9 in Strength of Schedule and #54 Power Index. Doesn't sound like a good combination.

The file called Resume is Strength of Schedule.

Note that GT is by far the highest ranked ACC team as far as Strength of Schedule. Next ACC teams are Clemson at #26 and Stanford at #28. Note that there are 9 SEC teams with GT in the top 10 Strength of Schedule.

It also only has GT having a 37% chance to get to 6 wins (bowl eligible). I think the FSU game is really crucial. Assuming (and a big assumption) that they don't trip up against a weaker opponent, an FSU win could lead to a 4-0 start which is crucial based on how difficult the second half of the season plays out.

 

[slugboy]

The Data Jocks say this about SOS (for college football): "Personally, I don’t think strength of schedule is a valuable metric to compute at all. SOS is not important on its own. Rather, it is only valuable as context for interpreting a team’s record. Instead of looking at the strength of schedule explicitly, I think it is better to come up with team-quality metrics that explicitly take into account the quality of opponents."

They go on to talk about the use of graph theory and why measuring strength of schedule requires consideration of the overall structure of “who played who” and how well mixed the schedules of the leagues are."

Geeky stuff. I'm not sure I'd spend much time on it until the end of the season.

There are definitely better stats

It’s not that useful on its own, but it’s a useful part of other things. And, yes, it’s hard to get right—especially with how short the seasons are and how siloed the schedules are.

When you have two 6-6 teams, and one plays a lot of top 20 teams with close losses, and the other plays weak competition, they aren’t the same team. It’s useful for that.

That’s why it’s factored in some way into almost any opponent adjusted metric.

UMass might have an incredibly high SOS, but it doesn’t matter because they aren’t winning anyway. For other teams, it might mean “moral victories”, which aren’t a ton of fun.

For us, it means if we get to bowl eligibility, we’re a d*** good team.

 

[billga99]

It also only has GT having a 37% chance to get to 6 wins (bowl eligible). I think the FSU game is really crucial. Assuming (and a big assumption) that they don't trip up against a weaker opponent, an FSU win could lead to a 4-0 start which is crucial based on how difficult the second half of the season plays out.

Looking at the Power Rankings, it is possible we will only be favorite in 4 games.

Georgia Tech Football Schedule​
Date​	Opponent​	Power Ranking​
24-Aug​	FSU (Dublin)​	11
31-Aug​	Georgia State​	89
7-Sep​	@Syracuse​	70
14-Sep​	VMI​	FCS (assume 130)
21-Sep​	@Louisville​	21
5-Oct​	Duke​	52
	1st Half Avg​	62
12-Oct​	@UNC​	42
19-Oct​	ND (Mercedes)​	7
26-Oct​	@VT​	50
9-Nov​	Miami​	23
21-Nov​	NC State​	28
29-Nov​	@UGA​	1
	2nd Half Avg​	25
	Total for Year​	44

 

[Bostongt]

Not a big fan of this Channel.. but an Ohio State Guy give his view of expansion focusing in on GT:

2:00 minute mark

 

[Vespidae]

Not a big fan of this Channel.. but an Ohio State Guy give his view of expansion focusing in on GT:

2:00 minute mark

GT joining the B1G might keep it in D1, but we’re more likely to to be another Rutgers. The Hill restricts its sports investment to waiving out of state tuition. To change that, change state law.

I think it’s wishful thinking.

 

[Techster]

GT joining the B1G might keep it in D1, but we’re more likely to to be another Rutgers. The Hill restricts its sports investment to waiving out of state tuition. To change that, change state law.

I think it’s wishful thinking.

Some on here keep saying GT would do worse in the B1G. I still haven't heard any good reasoning for that.

Can someone explain that to me? Maybe if Collins or Lewis was still our coach, but when we've had competent coaching, we've beaten very good teams consistently. There's a reason why GT is in top 20 for historical wins for teams currently playing P5 football.

GT will be GT regardless of conference. Good years mixed in with special years every 3-5 years. That is GT football...always has been.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Not a big fan of this Channel.. but an Ohio State Guy give his view of expansion focusing in on GT:

2:00 minute mark

They certainty echo the sentiment that we are headed toward a super conference with two divisions (B1G and SEC) with the rest of schools jockeying to get in. “Handwriting on the wall” and all that with SEC and B1G already having established a joint committee.

These are just talking heads who have to generate content and clicks, as everyone knows, but you always wonder if there’s anyone out there who really knows what’s going to happen.

Interesting that guys all the way up in the Midwest are aware of Tech and think Tech would be a sweet plum for the B1G to add.