Conference Realignment

[Vespidae]

My only caveat to that would be, this is what "bigtime" college football is about. There is a lot of CFB that is not about that. FCS football is not about tv viewership. DII & DIII are not about tv viewership. As someone who loves college football I have many levels to enjoy, and each one has its merits.

Totally agree. And they will continue to be enjoyed. They will, however, be increasingly irrelevant to the NC. The big are simply going to accelerate away from everyone else ....

 

[L41k18]

Totally agree. And they will continue to be enjoyed. They will, however, be increasingly irrelevant to the NC. The big are simply going to accelerate away from everyone else ....

And I'm fine with that if it happens. And wherever Tech settles, I just want them to be competitive for the conference title.

 

[stinger78]

It is EXACTLY what college football is about today. The minimum interest level is 4m viewers.

No. It is what the top level of CFB has been made to be about by sEcSPN and the elite programs. They are forcing the rest to bend over for them.

My point was the majority of CFB is *not* about massive viewership. Nor will the masses ever achieve that. (When will you guys get this?) The masses are there simply to provide fodder for the elite to make money and for their viewers to gloat about beating.

They don’t give two hoots about GA Tech, Texas Tech, Cal, Vandy, Iowa State, Miss State, Oregon State, etc. We don’t exist to them except to help them make money and to provide them wins.

 

[Vespidae]

No. It is what the top level of CFB has been made to be about by sEcSPN and the elite programs. They are forcing the rest to bend over for them.

My point was the majority of CFB is *not* about massive viewership. Nor will the masses ever achieve that. (When will you guys get this?) The masses are there simply to provide fodder for the elite to make money and for their viewers to gloat about beating.

They don’t give two hoots about GA Tech, Texas Tech, Cal, Vandy, Iowa State, Miss State, Oregon State, etc. We don’t exist to them except to help them make money and to provide them wins.

That is correct.

But the university programs exchanged control to networks for cash. Lots and lots of cash. It IS what major CFB is about.

The result is 80 programs will downshift. It’s inevitable.

 

[stinger78]

That is correct.

But the university programs exchanged control to networks for cash. Lots and lots of cash. It IS what major CFB is about.

The result is 80 programs will downshift. It’s inevitable.

Football is about competition on the field, not money. Geeze.

 

[Techster]

What signs did you see that indicates that "ESPN will not be opting out of the ACC deal in 2027"? I only skimmed through the filing, but didn't see anything that indicated that or that even acknowledged that such an option exists.

Something I did find interesting in the filing was: "FSU never disclosed the Agreements nor maintained that they were public records; apparently, not until its commercial dispute with the ACC did FSU contend that it had an obligation to make the Agreements public." The type was copied from the actual filing. What is interesting to me is that they are framing the entire anti-trust, fraud, intimidation, etc as solely a "commercial dispute". I have been shredded in this thread for simply stating the same thing.

Let's use deductive reasoning here:

1. If ESPN was leaving in 2027, what would be their reason to jump into this lawsuit and throw out "felony" at FSU? According to reports, ESPN has to notify the ACC in the next 2 years that they are opting out of the ACC media deal. Why get legally entangled in the next two years when the deal would be over and they can fully remove themselves of the ACC/FSU soap opera? What in the ACC/ESPN media agreement won't be outdated or already known "trade secrets" if ESPN opts out in 2027? According to the ESPN lawsuit:

“The Agreements contain sensitive financial terms setting the amount of rights fees and royalties that ESPN will pay, as well as sensitive non-financial terms about the parties’ future rights and obligations,” ESPN argued. “...ESPN closely guards copies of the agreements in its possession and includes confidentiality terms in the agreements themselves that prevent rightsholders—including the ACC and member schools like FSU—from publicly disclosing them.”

IMO, that bolded part is the key to understanding ESPN's intentions. "Parties' future rights and obligations" beyond 2027. This isn't the recipe to Coke/KFC fried chicken (which is available if you google it) or source code to Windows. Outside of "future rights and obligations" and "financial terms", what in the media world isn't already known about the ESPN/ACC media agreement?

2. According to reports, the ACC media contract is the most profitable contract ESPN has in their college portfolio. Over time, the media contract becomes more favorable to ESPN. Between the SEC/ACC/Big12, ESPN can offer advertisers media packages in the Southeast/Midwest/Northeast/West Coast that FOX (their biggest competitor in the college sports media space) can't replicate on college football gamedays. ESPN pretty much has exclusive reach in the Southeast and Southwest (the two fastest growing regions in the country) on college gamedays that they can offer advertisers. This takes me to why they are fighting FSU.

According to viewing metrics, FSU is the most viewed team in the ACC. Simply put, FSU brings in the best rating for the ACC (outside of Notre Dame, which isn't a full ACC member). Why would ESPN essentially fight FSU leaving the ACC? It's because if FSU leaves, they are joining the B1G (which has a partnership with ESPN's biggest media rival Fox) which could potentially break up ESPN's hold in some of the fastest growing markets. ESPN can contractually put a stranglehold on college media assets throughout the fastest and most populated markets for the next decade plus by simply keeping FSU in their place and not opting out in 2027.

Make no mistake, this is much more of a business move than it is a move about trade secrets. ESPN knows if they do not renew, FSU will run to the B1G, and most likely with other ACC schools in markets ESPN once had a monopolies in. It would also put FOX squarely in the region of their biggest collegiate asset, the SEC.

If you're looking for "signs", those are two VERY BIG signs that ESPN intends to renew when the opt out period comes.

 

[RonJohn]

Let's use deductive reasoning here:

1. If ESPN was leaving in 2027, what would be their reason to jump into this lawsuit and throw out "felony" at FSU? According to reports, ESPN has to notify the ACC in the next 2 years that they are opting out of the ACC media deal. Why get legally entangled in the next two years when the deal would be over and they can fully remove themselves of the ACC/FSU soap opera? What in the ACC/ESPN media agreement won't be outdated or already known "trade secrets" if ESPN opts out in 2027? According to the ESPN lawsuit:

“The Agreements contain sensitive financial terms setting the amount of rights fees and royalties that ESPN will pay, as well as sensitive non-financial terms about the parties’ future rights and obligations,” ESPN argued. “...ESPN closely guards copies of the agreements in its possession and includes confidentiality terms in the agreements themselves that prevent rightsholders—including the ACC and member schools like FSU—from publicly disclosing them.”

IMO, that bolded part is the key to understanding ESPN's intentions. "Parties' future rights and obligations" beyond 2027. This isn't the recipe to Coke/KFC fried chicken (which is available if you google it) or source code to Windows. Outside of "future rights and obligations" and "financial terms", what in the media world isn't already known about the ESPN/ACC media agreement?

2. According to reports, the ACC media contract is the most profitable contract ESPN has in their college portfolio. Over time, the media contract becomes more favorable to ESPN. Between the SEC/ACC/Big12, ESPN can offer advertisers media packages in the Southeast/Midwest/Northeast/West Coast that FOX (their biggest competitor in the college sports media space) can't replicate on college football gamedays. ESPN pretty much has exclusive reach in the Southeast and Southwest (the two fastest growing regions in the country) on college gamedays that they can offer advertisers. This takes me to why they are fighting FSU.

According to viewing metrics, FSU is the most viewed team in the ACC. Simply put, FSU brings in the best rating for the ACC (outside of Notre Dame, which isn't a full ACC member). Why would ESPN essentially fight FSU leaving the ACC? It's because if FSU leaves, they are joining the B1G (which has a partnership with ESPN's biggest media rival Fox) which could potentially break up ESPN's hold in some of the fastest growing markets. ESPN can contractually put a stranglehold on college media assets throughout the fastest and most populated markets for the next decade plus by simply keeping FSU in their place and not opting out in 2027.

Make no mistake, this is much more of a business move than it is a move about trade secrets. ESPN knows if they do not renew, FSU will run to the B1G, and most likely with other ACC schools in markets ESPN once had a monopolies in. It would also put FOX squarely in the region of their biggest collegiate asset, the SEC.

If you're looking for "signs", those are two VERY BIG signs that ESPN intends to renew when the opt out period comes.

I don't see it that way. ESPN considers their contracts with broadcast companies and with sports entities to be confidential. They do not want the Big12 nor SEC to know all of the details of the ACC contract. They do not want the ACC to know all of the details about the SEC contract. They do not want Fox to know all of the details, and information that Fox could use to their advantage. I see this as a strong response to someone releasing confidential information. Big companies do not take kindly to that. In general, if you are an employee and you release information, chances are that you will be fired and possibly face a lawsuit or criminal prosecution. If you are a subcontractor and one of your employees releases information, you will likely have your contracts cancelled and face a lawsuit. Companies will do that even if the actual harm is very low because they want to protect confidential information and they want to make sure that everyone involved understands the stakes.

ESPN is supporting a motion to seal certain information that is pertinent to the lawsuit, but they maintain is confidential. ESPN has to do this, no matter what future plans they have or don't have. If they sit back and allow confidential information to be made public in this case, then it will hurt them trying to keep information confidential in the future. They filed a strongly worded brief to support keeping the information confidential. Unlike the headlines, they didn't actually "accuse" FSU of committing a felony, they actually say in the filing that it isn't for them to decide whether a felony was committed. They distance themselves from the FSU vs ACC dispute and describe that as a "commercial dispute". The ONLY thing I actually take out of this document is that ESPN very strongly wants to keep their private business contracts confidential.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

No, I’m sorry, it is not what CFB is all about. It is what sEcSPN and the elite have made it all about.
Notice that 7 of the ACC, 9 of the Big 12, 6 of the Big Ten, and 5 of the PAC 12 are between 1-2 million viewers. That’s 27 of the 47 programs - well over 50%. Add in the 5 more that are between 2-2.5 and that’s 32 of 47 programs - over 60%.
This is about the so-called blue-bloods in cahoots with sEcSPN to hijack CFB and force the rest to play the game their way.
I feel a split is inevitable, and it won’t come too soon, IMPO.

 

[Vespidae]

Football is about competition on the field, not money. Geeze.

Not any more. Do you think FSU wants out of the ACC over “competing on the field”? Or money?

The documents filed say money. Conference realignment is over money.

 

[Techster]

Oh, one more thing. That may be what FSU wants to get, but I have pointed out before that FSU releasing privileged information to the public is likely to make Fox leery of doing business with them. The entire episode would probably add pause to the Big10 offering an invitation. Even if they get out, they might burn so many bridges that they have no place to go to.

The problem with what you're saying is that you and I are expressing our opinions on a message board and have zero to lose or gain. When it comes down to shareholders and multi billion $$$ deals, what matters most is profits. That's just the reality of how the business world works. Do you think ESPN or the SEC cared about how big of a jack@ss Texas was to their fellow Big 12 members and Big12 executives? No, because Texas represented a GINORMOUS market and fanbase.

That's what FSU represents to FOX and the B1G. You're also assuming FOX and the B1G aren't somehow behind FSU moving forward with their legal challenge. FOX and B1G have ZERO to lose (unless the discovery process digs up communications between FOX/B1G/FSU in which case we enter into tortious interference territory) if FSU fights with the ACC and ESPN, and a big fanbase in a big new market to gain. Most likely several new markets in the only region the B1G isn't in, as several ACC members are most likely going to join FSU in the B1G.

You and I may operate with a moral code and might view FSU as a problematic business partner, but FOX and the B1G will have zero issues with FSU considering the amount to gain far outweigh the problems they bring in.

 

[Techster]

I don't see it that way. ESPN considers their contracts with broadcast companies and with sports entities to be confidential. They do not want the Big12 nor SEC to know all of the details of the ACC contract. They do not want the ACC to know all of the details about the SEC contract. They do not want Fox to know all of the details, and information that Fox could use to their advantage. I see this as a strong response to someone releasing confidential information. Big companies do not take kindly to that. In general, if you are an employee and you release information, chances are that you will be fired and possibly face a lawsuit or criminal prosecution. If you are a subcontractor and one of your employees releases information, you will likely have your contracts cancelled and face a lawsuit. Companies will do that even if the actual harm is very low because they want to protect confidential information and they want to make sure that everyone involved understands the stakes.

ESPN is supporting a motion to seal certain information that is pertinent to the lawsuit, but they maintain is confidential. ESPN has to do this, no matter what future plans they have or don't have. If they sit back and allow confidential information to be made public in this case, then it will hurt them trying to keep information confidential in the future. They filed a strongly worded brief to support keeping the information confidential. Unlike the headlines, they didn't actually "accuse" FSU of committing a felony, they actually say in the filing that it isn't for them to decide whether a felony was committed. They distance themselves from the FSU vs ACC dispute and describe that as a "commercial dispute". The ONLY thing I actually take out of this document is that ESPN very strongly wants to keep their private business contracts confidential.

I get that you don't view it the same. I'll say this: We'll see in 2025 when it's reported ESPN has a decision to make. You and I don't have much longer to wait to see who viewed it the correct way.

 

[yeti92]

This is an interesting look. Here's the 2023 media viewership:

Atlantic Coast Conference
Florida State 4.16, Clemson 2.90, Miami 2.65, Duke 2.63, Louisville 2.37, North Carolina 1.93, Georgia Tech 1.83, Boston College 1.48, Pitt 1.37, Syracuse 1.20, NC State 1.13, Virginia Tech 1.02.

Southeastern Conference
Alabama 7.12, Georgia 5.90, Tennessee 4.57, LSU 3.79, Auburn 3.55, Missouri 3.25, Florida 3.17, Ole Miss 2.93, Texas A&M 2.74, South Carolina 2.69, Vanderbilt 2.46, Kentucky 2.07, Mississippi State 2.01, Arkansas 1.93.

Big 12
Texas 4.26, Oklahoma 2.61, Oklahoma State 1.96, TCU 1.70, Kansas 1.48, West Virginia 1.45, Iowa State 1.37, BYU 1.31, Kansas State 1.30, Texas Tech 1.30, Baylor 1.09.

Big Ten
Ohio State 6.05, Michigan 5.61, Penn State 3.66, Iowa 2.68, Nebraska 2.63, Michigan State 1.65, Wisconsin 1.61, Maryland 1.55, Minnesota 1.44, Indiana 1.26, Rutgers 1.14.

Pac-12
Colorado 6.00, Oregon 4.43, Washington 4.14, USC 3.77, Utah 2.61, Oregon State 2.44, Washington State 2.15, UCLA 1.67, Stanford 1.64, Arizona 1.30, Arizona State 1.20, Cal 1.08.

The SEC has 48.18 million viewers per year (2023) vs. 24.67 for the ACC. This, along with subscriber fees, is what college football is all about: Programming content.

There is no way these numbers aren't excluding a bunch of games. Am I really expected to believe Duke averaged more viewers than Oklahoma?

 

[Vespidae]

There is no way these numbers aren't excluding a bunch of games. Am I really expected to believe Duke averaged more viewers than Oklahoma?

They played Clemson, ND, FSU … yeah.

 

[stinger78]

Not any more. Do you think FSU wants out of the ACC over “competing on the field”? Or money?

The documents filed say money. Conference realignment is over money.

That’s not CFB. You don’t go to a game to see a team switch conferences! At least, I don’t, maybe you do. Enjoy!!!

 

[orientalnc]

There is no way these numbers aren't excluding a bunch of games. Am I really expected to believe Duke averaged more viewers than Oklahoma?

You are correct. I posted a description of the numbers a couple weeks ago. Google Nielsen college football TV ratings and you will likely find the fine print. Or you can search back through my posts.

 

[Techster]

This is an interesting look. Here's the 2023 media viewership:

Atlantic Coast Conference
Florida State 4.16, Clemson 2.90, Miami 2.65, Duke 2.63, Louisville 2.37, North Carolina 1.93, Georgia Tech 1.83, Boston College 1.48, Pitt 1.37, Syracuse 1.20, NC State 1.13, Virginia Tech 1.02.

Southeastern Conference
Alabama 7.12, Georgia 5.90, Tennessee 4.57, LSU 3.79, Auburn 3.55, Missouri 3.25, Florida 3.17, Ole Miss 2.93, Texas A&M 2.74, South Carolina 2.69, Vanderbilt 2.46, Kentucky 2.07, Mississippi State 2.01, Arkansas 1.93.

Big 12
Texas 4.26, Oklahoma 2.61, Oklahoma State 1.96, TCU 1.70, Kansas 1.48, West Virginia 1.45, Iowa State 1.37, BYU 1.31, Kansas State 1.30, Texas Tech 1.30, Baylor 1.09.

Big Ten
Ohio State 6.05, Michigan 5.61, Penn State 3.66, Iowa 2.68, Nebraska 2.63, Michigan State 1.65, Wisconsin 1.61, Maryland 1.55, Minnesota 1.44, Indiana 1.26, Rutgers 1.14.

Pac-12
Colorado 6.00, Oregon 4.43, Washington 4.14, USC 3.77, Utah 2.61, Oregon State 2.44, Washington State 2.15, UCLA 1.67, Stanford 1.64, Arizona 1.30, Arizona State 1.20, Cal 1.08.

The SEC has 48.18 million viewers per year (2023) vs. 24.67 for the ACC. This, along with subscriber fees, is what college football is all about: Programming content.

Given how terrible GT has been since 2019, this isn't a bad graphic for GT at all. Imagine if we were good during that period.

 

[orientalnc]

There is no way these numbers aren't excluding a bunch of games. Am I really expected to believe Duke averaged more viewers than Oklahoma?

Here you go.

Conference Realignment

UNC and UVA are big state schools in territory that the SEC and Big 10 cannot currently claim. That's the main reason they are attractive. Plus they are fairly good at other sports (both won men's basketball championships recently), great academically, AAU members, etc. They are attractive...

gtswarm.com

 

[stinger78]

NB: The second highest viewership of the bunch: Colorado… a dreadfully bad team. They show that network hype works. There ia absolutely no way that CO ahould be within spitting distance of Clemson, and double virtually the rest of the ACC/B12.

 

[Vespidae]

That’s not CFB. You don’t go to a game to see a team switch conferences! At least, I don’t, maybe you do. Enjoy!!!

It has become programming content. When you understand that, you understand everything else.

I do enjoy it. I just recognize that it is a media product now.

 

[orientalnc]

Conference Realignment

Do those teams actually have good individual viewership numbers or are they fortunate enough to play UGA and Alabama in good timeslots on major networks? How do you think Missouri or Arkansas would do ratings wise if half their games were on the ACC network or CW against other teams that don't...

gtswarm.com