College Football Season Picks

[Thwg777]

I figured I’d start this thread. I wasn’t sure if there’s much interest here in this subject. I enjoy studying the lines and occasionally placing wagers.

For NCAA Futures, I took Texas St to make the playoffs at 15-1 odds. Rationale was that at least one G5 team gets in and think they’ve got a shot to pull it off.

I also took GT to make the playoffs at 80-1 odds. It’s a homer pick and a longshot, but it’ll be a nice payout. (The last time I did a GT future was 2014 to win the natty - didn’t pay but was worth a shot!)

I generally do not like regular season wins but am considering taking the dwags under 10.5. Their schedule is formidable with difficult road games, but it’s still a tough bet.

Week 0 - nothing really stuck out to me. I liked SMU but everyone else must too as the line has risen from -20 to now -25.

Week 1 - I like Charlotte +9. JMU lost a lot this last season, and may I play the money line straight up in this one.

 

[Thwg777]

A few small updates…

Generally speaking, the ‘average Joe’ bettor wagers on favorites. So typically when lines are set, a rule of thumb I have is if I like the favorite, I bet it right away. And if I like the underdog, I bet it closer to game time (hoping for a better line / more points).

It then becomes interesting when a line moves the opposite way (favored team’s line moves smaller). That just happened in the free shoes / GT game. It opened around 13.5 and is now 11.5 despite roughly 70-75% of the handle and wagers on the criminoles. Obviously nothing is a sure bet, but that’s often a sign of some respected betting action on the underdog (us).

Charlotte has moved similarly. They opened around +10 and currently sit around +8 despite most bets on JMU.

I did nibble on an early week 2 line and took Nebraska -6 against Colorado. It’s more of a fade of Colorado.

 

[Thwg777]

In case anyone is curious, after our win yesterday, the line movements in week 1 went from GT -20.5 to -21.5 over GaSt and F$U -21.5 to -17.5 over BC.

This makes sense to me. Our game next week is a classic letdown spot and a sandwich game between two ACC foes. No play for me… just hoping we prepare and win.

GT to make the playoffs reduced from 80-1 to 34-1 odds. Similarly to win the ACC reduced from 100-1 to 30-1 odds. Clempson is now the favorite to win the ACC.

 

[kg01]

Anybody watchin UNC vs Minny?

*yawn*

 

[Thwg777]

Anybody watchin UNC vs Minny?

*yawn*

I’m watching the most evenly matched game of the evening: Western Carolina v NCST.

 

[kg01]

I’m watching the most evenly matched game of the evening: Western Carolina v NCST.

Well you just missed a pretty terrible int by the unc qb. Another time, he was wrapped up by the sideline and blindly flung the ball back onto the field. Luckily no one picked it.

He looked like Jeff Sims for a minute. Hate to bring him up but he objectively had some inexplicable plays like that.

 

[GTNC72]

Anybody watchin UNC vs Minny?

*yawn*

How is the Collins D doing?

 

[GTNC72]

I’m watching the most evenly matched game of the evening: Western Carolina v NCST.

WAS evenly matched. NCSU pulling away late.

 

[kg01]

How is the Collins D doing?

So-so

MIN seemed to hit their stride in the 2nd. Walked down the field to score a td right before the half.

Not great tackling, giving up long 3rd downs.

 

[kg01]

Colorado seems to have righted the ship in this game. I watched the 1st qtr+ and they looked bad. Several extended drives via 3rd down defensive penalties.

Up 24-20 (and in the redzone) on NDSt in the 4th after being down early.

 

[kg01]

Gahdayum, this Travis Hunter kid is guud.

 

[Thwg777]

Well I spent 11 hours yesterday at a sports book watching the games… here are some of my thoughts…

VT looked like hot garbage.

Clemson doesn’t have a functioning offense and u(sic)ga’s defense is good. It makes me wonder what it would take to make a change at Clemson (Dabo). His refusal to use the portal isn’t working.

Miami looked really sharp. I hadn’t seen much of their QB previously and understand that FSU was trying to buy him before Miami landed him. Miami got the better upgrade.

Syracuse started slow but then turned it on.

Regarding our upcoming game, I estimated it to be around GT -5.5 and see the opener at GT -2.5.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Well I spent 11 hours yesterday at a sports book watching the games… here are some of my thoughts…

VT looked like hot garbage.

Clemson doesn’t have a functioning offense and u(sic)ga’s defense is good. It makes me wonder what it would take to make a change at Clemson (Dabo). His refusal to use the portal isn’t working.

Miami looked really sharp. I hadn’t seen much of their QB previously and understand that FSU was trying to buy him before Miami landed him. Miami got the better upgrade.

Syracuse started slow but then turned it on.

Regarding our upcoming game, I estimated it to be around GT -5.5 and see the opener at GT -2.5.

Heard some chatter about the Dabo philosophy in the age of the transfer portal. He would have to completely redo his entire coaching philosophy and what shaped him as a player and as a coach. He really believes in the God, family and loyalty thing. He feels he can’t promise a recruit a nurturing family that will help him best achieve his God given talents and then replace him with a transfer in the starting lineup just when he is blossoming. He also worries about the impact on the “family” locker room if an interloper is brought in who doesn’t have the family history and who also thinks that’s a load of cow dung.

It is truly a clash of cultures for Dabo and threatens everything he believes in. He certainly can be criticized for fighting the wrong battles, or being stubborn, but at least for now he still wants to redeem the soul of college football. He wants loyalty to be a thing and maintain his image of a nurturing father who helps young men grow up and who then pass that loyalty down to others.

I think Key is able to balance his idealism with a realistic understanding of today’s landscape but he has the Tech culture going for him (ironically) in which players come here to begin with, whether as recruits or as transfers, already knowing what the culture is they are buying into.

I will watch with interest the saga of Dabo. Does he change? Does he claw back some of what he thinks is being lost by taking a stand? Does he eventually leave the program ?

 

[Thwg777]

I will watch with interest the saga of Dabo. Does he change? Does he claw back some of what he thinks is being lost by taking a stand? Does he eventually leave the program ?

Good write-up overall.

From an ideological perspective, I like Sweeney and in general hold little animosity towards Clemson unless of course they’re playing us. When we played them in the ACCCG, many of his family members were on my flight from and were very good people to speak with.

It’ll be interesting to follow. I doubt his job is in question in the near future but their trajectory doesn’t seem anywhere close to the success they had 5 years ago and continuing to double down on refusing to adapt to the game must be creating tension.

 

[AUFC]

I had a pretty awful Week 1 but if Castellanos/Bond have bad games tonight, they would rescue it.

• Hit a 4 leg with Sanders/Hunter (COL) overs and Chiles/Foster (MSU) unders for +900.
• Mertz/Badger (FLA) unders cashed on Saturday and need Castellanos/Bond (BC) unders for another +900 hit. Castellanos line has moved in the wrong direction for me since Friday though so don't love my odds but I'll keep my fingers crossed. Markets are pricing in about a 35% chance of both unders hitting.

 

[Thwg777]

I had a pretty awful Week 1 but if Castellanos/Bond have bad games tonight, they would rescue it.

• Hit a 4 leg with Sanders/Hunter (COL) overs and Chiles/Foster (MSU) unders for +900.
• Mertz/Badger (FLA) unders cashed on Saturday and need Castellanos/Bond (BC) unders for another +900 hit. Castellanos line has moved in the wrong direction for me since Friday though so don't love my odds but I'll keep my fingers crossed. Markets are pricing in about a 35% chance of both unders hitting.

I consider myself fairly degenerate but I don’t know what this means, lol. Player props?

My initial read of the BC/F$U line (free shoes -16) is that it’s polarizing… I can see free shoes murdering BC but can also see them struggling and a game similar to last year’s game. I don’t really see a scenario where it ends up close to the actual number.

In light of how well we played Saturday, I’m leaning the former. But am not confident enough to wager on it.

 

[Thwg777]

GT to make the playoffs reduced from 80-1 to 34-1 odds. Similarly to win the ACC reduced from 100-1 to 30-1 odds. Clempson is now the favorite to win the ACC.

I saw updated ACC odds post a little while ago.

Clempson is no longer the ACC favorite (shocker).

Miami is now the ACC favorite. Followed by Clempson, Free Shoes hmmm, SMU?!, Louisville (makes sense), VT wtf?, NCST huh?, and the GT.

Trying not to overreact but it seems a little off!

 

[slugboy]

I saw updated ACC odds post a little while ago.

Clempson is no longer the ACC favorite (shocker).

Miami is now the ACC favorite. Followed by Clempson, Free Shoes hmmm, SMU?!, Louisville (makes sense), VT wtf?, NCST huh?, and the GT.

Trying not to overreact but it seems a little off!

It’s about the schedule. We might have the toughest in-conference schedule. The good news is that we don’t have Clemson. We also don’t have Stanford, UVA, Wake, or BC (we don’t have many patsies)

There’s a chart for each ACC team at https://kfordratings.com/projections.

Here is ours

Here is SMU’s path to a conference title

 

[AUFC]

I consider myself fairly degenerate but I don’t know what this means, lol. Player props?

My initial read of the BC/F$U line (free shoes -16) is that it’s polarizing… I can see free shoes murdering BC but can also see them struggling and a game similar to last year’s game. I don’t really see a scenario where it ends up close to the actual number.

In light of how well we played Saturday, I’m leaning the former. But am not confident enough to wager on it.

Yep, player props. Thomas Castellanos passing yards under and Lewis Bond receiving yards under. I definitely can see Free Shoes being hyperfocused between their escape in Chestnut Hill last season and the week 0 loss. That said, those "chances of hyperfocus" are already baked into the markets. I'm not really seeing any good deals across the major books for tonight but mainly do live plays once games have begun if we're talking straight bets (Fliff, almost exclusively). I stick to the daily fantasy sports platforms for most pre-game stuff - kind of a weird space though because DFS is way less regulated than sportsbetting. Some of the major players with huge venture capital backing are legit but my favorite one lately has some reports of them refusing payout after big wins. It makes me a little nervous to put much money into them or leave any type of balance in.

I've gotten really into the positive expected value sportsbetting stuff in 2024 - it's a nice combo of 2 things I like: sports and mathematics. A little bit of econ too. I don't really use any sports knowledge or analysis to pick my plays. The only other rule is I don't bet anything GT-related. The teams bring me too much happiness to risk experiencing disappointment because Eric Singleton scored rather than Chase Lane or whatever.

 

[Thwg777]

It’s about the schedule. We might have the toughest in-conference schedule. The good news is that we don’t have Clemson. We also don’t have Stanford, UVA, Wake, or BC (we don’t have many patsies)

There’s a chart for each ACC team at https://kfordratings.com/projections.

Thanks for sharing these. It’s interesting. I agree others have an easier schedule, and I’m probably overreacting since we did win our most difficult ACC game already (by most difficult, I mean the preseason odds).

I find interesting some ACC teams such as SMU and Miami start with four OOC and then end with eight straight conference games. I can’t imagine that’s a good thing.