Coastal Race

GTNavyNuke

Helluva Engineer
Featured Member
Messages
7,401
Location
Poquoson Virginia
Here's the standings as of today ....... no in division games so far, but UVa and Pitt have the lead. Miami has a loss.
http://espn.go.com/ncf/conferences/standings?confId=1&year=2014

Big game to start the race for us today. I see the Coastal race as a double elimination. Lose two and you probably won't win Coastal, especially so if one of the losses is to another contender given the tie breaker. So today's game is like 2 1/2 games for Coastal.

Either GT or VT will lead Coastal at the end of the day. The rest of the Coastal teams don't play other ACC teams. (Of course the monumental game for Atlantic and possible ACC overall is tonight between FSU / Clemson). But we'll worry about who ever we face in the ACCCG later. (y)
 

GTNavyNuke

Helluva Engineer
Featured Member
Messages
7,401
Location
Poquoson Virginia
Here are the number of ACC games we have lost since CPJ came here: 3, 1, 4, 3, 3, 3; 2008 to 13 respectively. 1 loss in the almost guarantees an ACCCG (unless your name is Clemson). 2012 we backed in with three losses in a three way tie after Miami forfeited.

I'm rooting for Clemson tonight. I picked them to win the ACC this year. {I want us to win but people in hell want ice water.} Of course I knew that Winston wouldn't be playing!!
 

Oldgoldandwhite

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,829
There are only 35 or so teams that have not lost a game so far. To quote CPJ: "We have done what we had to do so far - but it may not have been pretty." Hope we keep getting better.
 

Whiskey_Clear

Banned
Messages
10,487
I think Iowa sux this year. Not sure that game will tell us the whole story on Pitt. So far Pitt looks like a good squad overall. Not great...but pretty good.
 

GTNavyNuke

Helluva Engineer
Featured Member
Messages
7,401
Location
Poquoson Virginia
As of this morning, JHowell has us third in power ranking* in the ACC. What happened to ESPN picking us 13 of 14?

I don't think we are better than Clemson by any means, but this is what the numbers from one algorithm say. {My other favorite site, Atomic has been down for a while.}

FSU dropped because it took OT for FSU to beat Clemson. The algorithm doesn't take into account injuries or player antics.

Rank Team PR
4 Florida State 0.827
27 Louisville 0.702
28 Georgia Tech 0.696
31 Clemson 0.677
35 Duke 0.662
39 Virginia Tech 0.646
42 Pittsburgh 0.636
45 Miami (Florida) 0.612
46 North Carolina State 0.609
53 North Carolina 0.585
55 Boston College 0.569
63 Syracuse 0.545
68 Virginia 0.505
92 Wake Forest 0.437

*Power Ranking is the probability of a team to beat the average team on a neutral field. http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cf2014.htm
 

GTJake

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,769
Location
Boise, Idaho
Interesting where UVA is in that ranking, to me they seem better than that playing UCLA and BYU pretty tough.

Not looking ahead, just a comment, I think Pitt @ Pitt will be a tough game for us.
 

GTJackets

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
579
Location
Moncks Corner, South Carolina
As of this morning, JHowell has us third in power ranking* in the ACC. What happened to ESPN picking us 13 of 14?

I don't think we are better than Clemson by any means, but this is what the numbers from one algorithm say. {My other favorite site, Atomic has been down for a while.}

FSU dropped because it took OT for FSU to beat Clemson. The algorithm doesn't take into account injuries or player antics.

Rank Team PR
4 Florida State 0.827
27 Louisville 0.702
28 Georgia Tech 0.696
31 Clemson 0.677
35 Duke 0.662
39 Virginia Tech 0.646
42 Pittsburgh 0.636
45 Miami (Florida) 0.612
46 North Carolina State 0.609
53 North Carolina 0.585
55 Boston College 0.569
63 Syracuse 0.545
68 Virginia 0.505
92 Wake Forest 0.437

*Power Ranking is the probability of a team to beat the average team on a neutral field. http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cf2014.htm

My guess is that it would take into account Clemson now has to make up for a loss to FSU which makes tech more likely. Just a guess though.
 

Techster

Helluva Engineer
Messages
12,616
Interesting where UVA is in that ranking, to me they seem better than that playing UCLA and BYU pretty tough.

Not looking ahead, just a comment, I think Pitt @ Pitt will be a tough game for us.

Unfortunately, until we play a complete game, every game will be a nail biter for us. As long as we get the "W", that's OK...
 

GTNavyNuke

Helluva Engineer
Featured Member
Messages
7,401
Location
Poquoson Virginia
Interesting where UVA is in that ranking, to me they seem better than that playing UCLA and BYU pretty tough.

Not looking ahead, just a comment, I think Pitt @ Pitt will be a tough game for us.

Agree, some match ups are tougher than others and that isn't reflected in the stats which don't look at things like where the strength of the O and opposing D are.

The way the power ranking is calculated is from a error minimization of game results assuming the transitive property. Also the power ranking at the start of the year assumes the previous year's power ranking. So UVa's low ranking is a result of how low they were ranked at the end of last year (103rd); now they are 68th.
 

LibertyTurns

Helluva Engineer
Messages
5,210
Some interesting rankings.

UVA is massively underrated. I have to admit, I'd have thought they'd be a joke again this year. They're a solid to good team. More like 30 than 60. Hopefully attrition takes them out of the running before they get to us and we get an easy W.

Miami is underrated as well. They'll give us trouble in 2 weeks unless Duke knocks them off. If that happens we'll roll them. An undisciplined team you can't predict. Only thing they're missing is a QB and by the time they get to us the newbie will have enough games under his belt to either scorch our secondary or will force every throw giving us easy INTs. Duke J is going to be a handful. They're somewhere between 25 and 75.

VT is confusing, jury's not out on them yet. I think they bought into the hype after beating the other OSU. I think we benefitted from having them early this year but with enough games to allow JT to get some experience. Most other years we'd have been much better off getting them late in the year.

BC is underrated. They're going to put up more of a fight than anyone would have imagined at start of year.

UNC is crap. They probably have the horses to be good, but their lack of discipline has made it to the gridiron. They don't have the talent of the Mutts to make up for their off-field issues. This will not change.

Wouldn't count Pitt out yet. Iowa game should have been a W but how many times have we seen an underperforming team pull off a road upset then lapse back into crap play. Very Miami-like. Like our talent gap here but we won't blow them out as we probably should.

Duke is Duke. It's a nice story and they're not a complete pushover anymore, but in the end they're still Duke.

Let's keep winning and out of the rankings as long as possible. The team does not need to go the way of VT.
 
Top