Well by virtue of Collins being let go prior to playing 6 games I would think it obvious that wasn't the actual bar.
But regardless, it's a different situation. By firing Collins and Tstan mid year, the president made it clear he had reached the conclusion that the current path wasn't the one we needed to be on, and that not only was it a problem with Collins, but we need to completely reset by also getting a new AD. Hiring Key would be done to keep continuity. You likely wouldn't be making many coaching changes because the argument for keeping Key despite his role in the last 3 years can be applied to anyone on staff and the new guys would have even less baggage. That would be a shockingly complete 180 in terms of direction since the midseason firings. Going from everyone, including the AD, must go, to keep most of the staff is drastic. So yes, something drastic is needed to cause that. Just making the bowl isn't that, to me.
Look at our upcoming schedule.
UVA is 2-4 with wins over ODU and Richmond. This is a bad team.
FSU. People are hyping this game up. It's very likely they will come into that game riding a 3 game losing streak, and if we beat them, it would be 4 in a row. More on this in a second but I doubt they look anywhere near as good a win at the end of the year as people are envisioning it now.
VT - they're probably worse than UVA. Do have wins over Wofford and BC but lost to ODU and the other 3 games by an average of 3 TDs.
Miami is 2-3 with wins over Bethune Cookman and Southern Miss. Probably will get a couple more wins before then because they play Vt/Duke/UVA the next 3 games, but it's likely if we beat them it will be either the middle of a three game losing streak, or the FSU game looks even worse as it would mean they are likely on a 5 game losing streak then.
The truth is, barring the UGA game, Key won't have much chance to do anything drastic unless we go to the ACC CG. Lets say we win the above 4, then lose to UNC and UGA to close out the season, hiring Key would be underwhelming to say the least. Removing the interim label before the UNC game and then losing two in a row would look even worse.