@Clemson Baseball

[GTNavyNuke]

OK, who hasn't been more hopeful lately about our team? We are trending in the right direct.

Clempy is 6-4 in their last 10. After going 28-5 to start. Their high RPI is due to smarter scheduling than ours with a 19 OOC SoS.

Here's how they've done last 3 ACC series (going back): 2-1 @ L'Ville, 2-1 Pitt and 1-2 NC State.

They have large advantage in pitching when considering the entire season with second in ACC only games 4.08 ERA versus our 7th 5.59. But in the @L'Ville series they gave up 25 runs and Pitt 14 runs. We've given up 11 runs versus Miami and 22 versus @UVa. So maybe not such a big advantage when you consider recent performance (especially if they don't use sticky stuff pitching). When entire season is considered the ERA is closer, probably due to our Charmin soft OOC versus their tougher OOC.

We are better hitting (#4 v #8) and fielding (#5 v #12) and the stats below.

The game notes aren't out but I expect we'll be keeping Finateri, Jones, McKee.

So while I think we could win 2 given the trends, I think we take 1 since we are @Clempy. (I ain't kicking that football.)

 

[bensaysitathome]

I'll continue to pick two until we don't. This team can beat anybody.

 

[GT33]

I'll continue to pick two until we don't. This team can beat anybody.

Other than 1 game we got whipped, we either beat our opponent or beat ourseves the last month. Pretty impressive run.

 

[MWBATL]

Nuke is probably right to pick 1 but I have been swept up in the bandwagon so my heart says 2 even though my head agrees with Nuke

 

[gtrower]

We take all 3 and start entering host conversations.

 

[Bogey]

I continue to pick zero wins because we haven't lost a series since I started picking us getting swept the past 3 series.

 

[Bogey]

GT and Clemson have played 3 common ACC opponents and I find the results very interesting. I am not suggesting the results mean anything because baseball is, after all, baseball. However, the data does give me a lot of confidence that we can match up well with these conference leaders.

FORMAT: X,Y,Z= runs scored by each team in each game in the series

@ GT (3-0): 8, 8, 15; NCSU: 5, 7, 5;
Margin: 31-17
@ Clemson: (1-2): 8, 0, 7; NCSU: 11, 4, 0;
Margin: 15-15

GT (2-1): 6, 2, 7; @ Pitt: 3, 3, 4;
Margin: 15-10
@ Clemson: (2-1): 6, 4, 9; Pitt: 4, 8, 2;
Margin: 19- 14

@ GT (2-1): 4, 9, 17; Miami: 6, 4, 1;
Margin: 30-11
Clemson: (2-1): 2, 3, 7; @ Miami 3, 2, 0;
Margin: 12- 5

TOTAL MARGINS ALL 3 SERIES:
GT: +38; Clemson: +12

 

[FredJacket]

Massey's %'s have not really changed from last week. Here's the latest odds of beating each remaining opponent:

Clemson 41%
Auburn 55%
Duke 48%
Mercer 73%
FSU 45%

If we play those ACC teams 3 times each, we should win at least 1 each series. I agree with others, we're capable of getting more than 3 ACC wins across those 9 games.

His season simulation gives us the greatest chance of winning 5 (18.5%) or 6 (18.8%) out of the final 11.
Odds of winning specific number of games (out of 11):
0 - less than 1%
1 - 1.2%
2 - 3.9%
3 - 8.8%
4 - 14.8%
5 - 18.5%
6 - 18.8%
7 - 15.4%
8 - 10.3%
9 - 5.4%
10 - 2.1%
11 - less than 1%

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Nuke is probably right to pick 1 but I have been swept up in the bandwagon so my heart says 2 even though my head agrees with Nuke

I expect one win and hope for 3.

Given we scored 1 ER Friday against Miami in 9.0 innings and then 15 ER Sunday in 6.0 innings, there is no way (for me at least) to know what is going to happen.

Again as I started in the OP, we are trending up and they are trending down. But trends are the past; this weekend will probably be unexpected in some way. Hopefully good.

 

[GT33]

We take all 3 and start entering host conversations.

It’s time we start using our brooms on the road. Win the pre-Key 3.

 

[FittedJacket]

 

[Techcaster572]

So I'll be headed up to Clemson now for the doubleheader.

Clemson is a tough ball club and I think we win 1. Winning this series will be tough but this team can do it.
Either way, I'm excited about going and cheering on the boys!
Play some big time caveman baseball.

If Clemson is not patient against Aeden & Cam tomorrow, I REALLY like our chances.

This will be the third time i've been to Doug Kinsmore Stadium.
Outfield slope sucks...if you've been to Clemson, you know what I'm talking about.

 

[Techcaster572]

If you didn't listen to the D1 Acc baseball recap this week, you should. Its a big indictment on the RPI and they question how ND could take 2 of 3 from Wake and fall. Similar to Tech and not even in the top 50 after winning 4 straight acc series.
I know some of you like the rpi formula's but I can't stand it and good to hear former acc star players discuss it's failings.

 

[Techcaster572]

I think the predictor showing us only winning 3 of our remaining acc games is a joke.

I'm not saying it couldn't happen but the formula's take in only statistics...the computer models don't see how Cam locking down the Saturday pitching role and Giesler back changes our team dramatically.

The computer models don't recognize that the team is playing its best baseball at the most important time of the year.

If the computer factors the sweep by BC over us to compute how Tech will do vs Clem's Son, Puke, and Free Shoes, it's completely missing out as the team now is far different than the one that lost 6 straight acc games!
You can't model hot streaks, playing with confidence along with factoring how a key player comes back from injury.

I take the model for what its worth. A projection but nothing more.
When you look on the surface, three straight top 10 acc teams with two series on the road. Easy model to predict.
My gut tells me tech goes 4-5 or 5-4 to close out the acc season.

Money ball was a great movie but this is kids playing baseball so I'll go with emotions, gut feeling, and the kids putting on that White N Gold vs the model!

 

[Bogey]

Georgia Tech Baseball Projected As a No. 3 Seed in the Latest Field of 64 Projections From D1 Baseball

Georgia Tech Baseball has been one of the hottest teams in the country over the past month, winning four straight series in the ACC and securing a nice win over

www.si.com

 

[FredJacket]

Weather could turn this into a disjointed weekend (even more than it already has). Also quite possible it's less than 3 games. Go 1-0 (twice) today.

 

[FredJacket]

If you didn't listen to the D1 Acc baseball recap this week, you should. Its a big indictment on the RPI and they question how ND could take 2 of 3 from Wake and fall. Similar to Tech and not even in the top 50 after winning 4 straight acc series.
I know some of you like the rpi formula's but I can't stand it and good to hear former acc star players discuss it's failings.

I watched that earlier in the week. Made me chuckle. Definitely ACC homer-ism going on there... cherry picking some. My push back to those guys would be that RPI is (in fact) a mathematical formula. You can dig into the numbers and see exactly "why" teams are where they are. They seemed to just "not understand" how the RPI was shaking out like it has using the 'feels' method. I agree with their bottom line... if RPI at this point in the season makes you scratch your head that much... the formula is flawed and should be addressed by tweaking the formula or diminishing it's influence on how the committee chooses the field. FWIW... the flawed math is going to help us the rest of the way as road series at Clemson and FSU will almost assure us of an uptick. That may be true even if we go 0-6 in those games. I seriously believe (unless the wheels just fall off)... there is no way for Ga Tech to go backwards in RPI. 15-15 or better in ACC is a lock for the post-season (ACCT results won't matter). 14-16 and 8th place in ACC regular season is 'nearly' a lock... because RPI will be in the 40s, I think.

According to Nolan if GT wins today, we gain 61 RPI points... lose and we lose 2 RPI points. So... for RPI purposes, win is HUGE ... a loss (by any margin) is like not playing.

Upcoming RPI Impact Games for Georgia Tech Baseball | WarrenNolan.com

2024 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Baseball Upcoming Impact Games: Find out how much winning or losing to the next opponent will increase or decrease their RPI Rank

www.warrennolan.com

 

[GTNavyNuke]

No surprise here. Clemson coach winning 74% of games with tough SoS. We have upside on our coaching future!

I like getting the games played today and early. Will reduce the Clempy home field advantage.

 

[Home Park Jacket]

No surprise here. Clemson coach winning 74% of games with tough SoS. We have upside on our coaching future!

I like getting the games played today and early. Will reduce the Clempy home field advantage.

I agree with everything you said. We really need the first one. Their starting pitching seems to get tougher with Knaak being the best.

 

[bensaysitathome]

I watched that earlier in the week. Made me chuckle. Definitely ACC homer-ism going on there... cherry picking some. My push back to those guys would be that RPI is (in fact) a mathematical formula. You can dig into the numbers and see exactly "why" teams are where they are. They seemed to just "not understand" how the RPI was shaking out like it has using the 'feels' method. I agree with their bottom line... if RPI at this point in the season makes you scratch your head that much... the formula is flawed and should be addressed by tweaking the formula or diminishing it's influence on how the committee chooses the field. FWIW... the flawed math is going to help us the rest of the way as road series at Clemson and FSU will almost assure us of an uptick. That may be true even if we go 0-6 in those games. I seriously believe (unless the wheels just fall off)... there is no way for Ga Tech to go backwards in RPI. 15-15 or better in ACC is a lock for the post-season (ACCT results won't matter). 14-16 and 8th place in ACC regular season is 'nearly' a lock... because RPI will be in the 40s, I think.

According to Nolan if GT wins today, we gain 61 RPI points... lose and we lose 2 RPI points. So... for RPI purposes, win is HUGE ... a loss (by any margin) is like not playing.

Upcoming RPI Impact Games for Georgia Tech Baseball | WarrenNolan.com

2024 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Baseball Upcoming Impact Games: Find out how much winning or losing to the next opponent will increase or decrease their RPI Rank

www.warrennolan.com

What I hate is when you hear "this team is really great but their RPI needs some work." It happens this time every year.

Their RPI doesn't "need work," you just need to consider other metrics too. I think RPI is a great representation of a teams SOS, it's just overrated as a predictor of future success.

And for what it's worth, I appreciate that it rewards tough scheduling. But when a single series against a bad team can tank it that hard, it starts to fail as a useful raw metric. Maybe something like a modified-RPI would be better for the committee to weigh - like dropping the lowest 10% of data points or something.