CFP Odds and Format

bobongo

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This seemed apropos':


According to ESPN's Football Power Index, there are four teams with a serious chance of going undefeated during the 2022 regular season.

The four teams:
  • Ohio State: 32.5 percent chance
  • Georgia: 20.0 percent chance
  • Alabama: 16.4 percent chance
  • Clemson: 15.0 percent chance
The same four that have won almost all of the playoff games since the 4-team playoff was implemented.
 
Last edited:

MountainBuzzMan

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This seemed apropos':


According to ESPN's Football Power Index, there are four teams with a serious chance of going undefeated during the 2022 regular season.

The four teams:
  • Ohio State: 32.5 percent chance
  • Georgia: 20.0 percent chance
  • Alabama: 16.4 percent chance
  • Clemson: 15.0 percent chance
The same four that have won almost all of the playoff games since the 4-team playoff was implemented.
This will also help to continue to destroy college football. They need to expand the playoffs to give others a shot. The bias for those 4 will be heavy to get them in over comparable record teams, causing continued slow loss of interest from other team's fans
 

bobongo

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This will also help to continue to destroy college football. They need to expand the playoffs to give others a shot. The bias for those 4 will be heavy to get them in over comparable record teams, causing continued slow loss of interest from other team's fans
I was against expanding the playoff before I was for it, but I've thrown in the towel, 'cause like you said.
Eight seems about right, now.
 

ChicagobasedJacket

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This will also help to continue to destroy college football. They need to expand the playoffs to give others a shot. The bias for those 4 will be heavy to get them in over comparable record teams, causing continued slow loss of interest from other team's fans
Expanding the playoffs will just give Bama, uga, Clemson, and Ohio state more room for error while also becoming the SEC invitational.
 

GT_05

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Expanding the playoffs will just give Bama, uga, Clemson, and Ohio state more room for error while also becoming the SEC invitational.
Eight is a good number.

It would give the SEC and B1G opportunities to put in multiple teams but, even better, it would give all P5 and some G5’s a better chance to participate (in addition to Bama, the Mutts, Clemson, and Ohio State).

And like CPJ pointed out a long time ago, this is only one more week of football so only a few schools are impacted.
 

SOWEGA Jacket

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It will go way more than 8. It will be in the 20’s within 2 decades. Too much money to be had. And the dam has already been broken when it went to 4. I’m sure it will go to 8 in a few years. Once it does and they see the money those games make with packed stadiums the talk will turn to more as it should because why should some 9-2 teams get in and not others?

I predict we’ll have 24 within 20 years with top 8 getting a buy with the first two rounds on higher seeds campus. After 2 weeks you’d be down to 8 to play in the big stadiums. Sure, it’s 4-5 more games for some but the players aren’t there for school and the schools don’t care about abusing them.
 

ChicagobasedJacket

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So, you are thinking they should drop it back down to 2 to reduce their chance then?
I think they should keep it at 4 or go to 8 at most. That’s not happening though. Only the ACC wants 8. Everyone else wants 12 with some variation of auto qualifiers. Once it jumps to 12, it’s basically going to be the SEC invitational with a few teams from other P5 conferences participating in it.
 

CEB

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So we should be against an expanded playoff because it gives teams we don’t like a better chance to get in?
I’ve heard a lot of good reasons against it, but...

Maybe the expanded playoff gives me a chance to develop a hatred toward some new teams. That could be fun.
 

UgaBlows

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So we should be against an expanded playoff because it gives teams we don’t like a better chance to get in?
I’ve heard a lot of good reasons against it, but...

Maybe the expanded playoff gives me a chance to develop a hatred toward some new teams. That could be fun.
The SEC is already getting 2 teams into the playoffs, how long until they get 3 or all 4 spots? An expanded system at least gives other P5 conf champs and/or highly ranked deserving teams a guaranteed chance to compete for the crown.
 

CEB

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The SEC is already getting 2 teams into the playoffs, how long until they get 3 or all 4 spots? An expanded system at least gives other P5 conf champs and/or highly ranked deserving teams a guaranteed chance to compete for the crown.
I think you misinterpreted my post. I was responding to the string of posts saying they're against expanded playoff because the SEC will dominate it... a ridiculous reason.
I partially agree with your second point. I take issue with the “guaranteed” part unless they are going to include every P5 conference champ. I don’t think that will happen... at least not for long. The first time an 8-4 conference champ ranked in the low 20s beats out a top ten non conf champ, that’s out the window. FWIW, I’m assuming an 8-team playoff. If they go to 12 or 16, maybe the guaranteed spots work.
 

UgaBlows

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I think you misinterpreted my post. I was responding to the string of posts saying they're against expanded playoff because the SEC will dominate it... a ridiculous reason.
I partially agree with your second point. I take issue with the “guaranteed” part unless they are going to include every P5 conference champ. I don’t think that will happen... at least not for long. The first time an 8-4 conference champ ranked in the low 20s beats out a top ten non conf champ, that’s out the window. FWIW, I’m assuming an 8-team playoff. If they go to 12 or 16, maybe the guaranteed spots work.
i actually meant to reply to the post above your, sorry about that!

I don’t think any of the non-sec conferences will ever agree to expanding the playoffs if all P5 conf champs are not automatically qualified.
 

SOWEGA Jacket

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i actually meant to reply to the post above your, sorry about that!

I don’t think any of the non-sec conferences will ever agree to expanding the playoffs if all P5 conf champs are not automatically qualified.
Of course they’ll agree to it. Expansion will take the P5 champs. That’s really not even an argument. What most Whitney posters are worried about is that the SEC teams will get all the at large spots. If they are the best of the rest then so be it. No different than when the ACC legitimately had more teams make March madness. Here’s the easy solution - get better. If conferences are upset their #2 can’t beat the SEC #5 then that’s a you problem.
 

WreckinGT

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Of course they’ll agree to it. Expansion will take the P5 champs. That’s really not even an argument. What most Whitney posters are worried about is that the SEC teams will get all the at large spots. If they are the best of the rest then so be it. No different than when the ACC legitimately had more teams make March madness. Here’s the easy solution - get better. If conferences are upset their #2 can’t beat the SEC #5 then that’s a you problem.
Yeah, would have been great seeing Arkansas in the playoffs this year. They were undoubtedly better than Pitt, Ohio State and Oklahoma St.
 

CEB

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Of course they’ll agree to it. Expansion will take the P5 champs. That’s really not even an argument. What most Whitney posters are worried about is that the SEC teams will get all the at large spots. If they are the best of the rest then so be it. No different than when the ACC legitimately had more teams make March madness. Here’s the easy solution - get better. If conferences are upset their #2 can’t beat the SEC #5 then that’s a you problem.
If they are protected monetarily, they’ll agree to anything.
I still think it’s a tough sell to include P5 conference champs unless you go bigger than 8 teams.
Last year was about the best you could hope for. The lowest conf champ was Pitt at 12. the 8 would be:
1. Bama (sec)
2. Michigan (big)
7. Baylor (b12)
11. Utah (p12)
12. Pitt (Acc)
At large:
3. Uga
4. Cincy
5. ND

But how many years would a #6 Ohio State sit at home while watching a 8/9 win conference championship ranked in the 20s participate?

That’s the reason it will be 12 or 16 when it expands.
 

SOWEGA Jacket

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Of course it’s going bigger than 8 teams. Why are folks still not seeing what is happening? The thing went from zero playoff teams to a 2 team playoff under the BCS and then doubled to 4. It’s going way beyond 8 in the future. All this angst is about something that is inevitable. We have only had the 4 team playoff since 2014 and the talk has already started about expansion. That’s nothing in terms of time. I suspect it will go to 12 next with top 4 getting byes in first round. Then it will double from there because once the barrier of 2 was broken at that point it became an invitational. And also, because if it doesn’t expand the SEC will take in more teams and then leave the NCAA.

The SEC is the force that will make this all possible because they aren’t part of the latte drinking cabal that has become the ACC, the PAC, and BIG. They will force the issue and I for one am glad they are. They gave us football in 2020 when everyone else wanted to hide in their basement.
 

UgaBlows

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However many teams they eventually decide to expand to, they need to use a computer to pick the at large teams, something like how the BCS title games were decided before the current system started. Take human bias out of the equation as much as possible.
 

HurricaneJacket

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Expansion is fine as long as the major conferences have the opportunity to win their way in on the field. Otherwise, just go back to the early 90's and allow the lord's of chaos to reign.
 

bobongo

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Not gonna lie. A larger playoff in the new era of free agency and no spending caps feels pointless.
Pretty much, but unless and until the free agency is fixed and the wild spending sobers up, what can you do? At least some pretenders would be mixed in with the contenders.
 
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