CFP Discussion

MWBATL

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My bye week look at CFP:

B1G champ
SEC champ
Cincinnati if undefeated
Big 12 winner if undefeated
It will be VERY interesting if Cincinnati and the Big XII champs go unbeaten, and UGa goes unbeaten until they play Bama again in the SEC Championship Game. Assuming Bama wins out, if Bama beats UGa,will both get invites over the Big 10 Champ? It is hard to see the Big 10 Champ being undefeated (only Michigan and Michigan State are right now) and honestly, none of the Big 10 teams have been "impressive" or dominating the way both SEC teams have been.
 

orientalnc

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It will be VERY interesting if Cincinnati and the Big XII champs go unbeaten, and UGa goes unbeaten until they play Bama again in the SEC Championship Game. Assuming Bama wins out, if Bama beats UGa,will both get invites over the Big 10 Champ? It is hard to see the Big 10 Champ being undefeated (only Michigan and Michigan State are right now) and honestly, none of the Big 10 teams have been "impressive" or dominating the way both SEC teams have been.
Let's assume the following, just for discussion:

Cincinnati and Oklahoma win out. The odds are certainly in favor of that.
Alabama at 11-1 plays uga at 12-0 in the SEC Championship game.

If uga wins that game they will be the top seed in the CFP. If they lose, the CFP commitee will have to decide among at least two undefeated teams ranked in the top 5, the B1G champ in a year with six B1G teams ranked in the top 25, and a team that just lost it's conference championship game.

I don't care who wins the B1G this year, they will be in the CFP. If that doesn't happpen there will be a full scale uprising in the new ACC/B1G/Pac-12 alliance.
 

slugboy

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Out of that latter scenario, you could have
  1. Undefeated G5 team (Cincinnati)
  2. Undefeated B12 team (Oklahoma)
  3. Undefeated or 1-loss B1G team (OSU, uMich,MichSt)
  4. 1-loss P12 champ (Oregon)
  5. 1-loss or undefeated ACC champ (Pitt, Wake, NCST)
  6. 1-loss SEC champ (AL, OleMiss)
  7. 1-loss SEC runner up (UGA)
  8. 1-loss Notre Dame
You could still have 4 undefeated teams and a 1-loss SEC champ. You could have 2 or 3 undefeated teams and multiple 1-loss P5 conference champs. It probably won’t happen, but an undefeated team or **two** might be on the outside looking in.
 

orientalnc

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Cincy or Oklahoma would be outside looking in
Cincy and OU are ranked #2 and #3 right now. There is no way, if they remain unbeaten, either will be left out of the CFP.

What is interesting is that Oklahoma State is also unbeaten. In the B1G Ohio State is ranked #5 with one loss, but Michigan, Mich State and Penn State are right behind in the rankings.

The big question is how far would uga fall if Bama wins the SEC. I am sure the CFP committee hopes uga wins out and makes the choice a lot easier. For us anti-uga fans, we have to hope for Bama to do their Bama thing and win convincingly. That hurts my head, but remains my best hope.
 

RamblinRed

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Remember, we haven't had our first CFP ranking yet. That is when we will get a sense of what is really possible. I'm interested to see where Cincy is ranked when the first one comes out. That will be the first sense of whether the club is going to potentially let an outsider in. Keep in mind the CFP is controlled by the P5, so it is in the interest of the CFP to keep is teams from those conference.

An undefeated OK or OK ST will make the playoffs - I have no doubt of that. A one loss team from the B1G East is making the playoffs (they have 4 teams in the top 9).
if an undefeated team gets left out it will be Cincy or Coastal.

I think if UGA makes it to the SEC CG undefeated they are in no matter what happens there. That is how the SEC gets 2 in. If UGA beats AL in the CG then AL is out of the CFP.

Cincy has to keep winning and winning big.
 

orientalnc

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Remember, we haven't had our first CFP ranking yet. That is when we will get a sense of what is really possible. I'm interested to see where Cincy is ranked when the first one comes out. That will be the first sense of whether the club is going to potentially let an outsider in. Keep in mind the CFP is controlled by the P5, so it is in the interest of the CFP to keep is teams from those conference.

An undefeated OK or OK ST will make the playoffs - I have no doubt of that. A one loss team from the B1G East is making the playoffs (they have 4 teams in the top 9).
if an undefeated team gets left out it will be Cincy or Coastal.

I think if UGA makes it to the SEC CG undefeated they are in no matter what happens there. That is how the SEC gets 2 in. If UGA beats AL in the CG then AL is out of the CFP.

Cincy has to keep winning and winning big.
I agree that it will be interesting to see where the CFP has Cincy ranked. They beat Indiana in Bloomington and ND in South Bend. Remember, ND is ranked in the top 15 in spite of all those close games. If Cincy wins out and are left out of the CFP there will be a huge uproar. I don't see any chance for Coastal Carolina.
 

forensicbuzz

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Remember, we haven't had our first CFP ranking yet. That is when we will get a sense of what is really possible. I'm interested to see where Cincy is ranked when the first one comes out. That will be the first sense of whether the club is going to potentially let an outsider in. Keep in mind the CFP is controlled by the P5, so it is in the interest of the CFP to keep is teams from those conference.

An undefeated OK or OK ST will make the playoffs - I have no doubt of that. A one loss team from the B1G East is making the playoffs (they have 4 teams in the top 9).
if an undefeated team gets left out it will be Cincy or Coastal.

I think if UGA makes it to the SEC CG undefeated they are in no matter what happens there. That is how the SEC gets 2 in. If UGA beats AL in the CG then AL is out of the CFP.

Cincy has to keep winning and winning big.
If a 1-loss team (any conference, including SEC) gets put in the Playoff ahead of an undefeated Cinncinati team ranked in the Top4 in the Coachs' Poll, the system will implode. The G5 conferences will raise holy hell. You'll see a huge backlash against the Playoff from fans of any non-factory school because that would show that there's no way for anyone but the factories to even have a chance at a National Championship.
 

slugboy

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If a 1-loss team (any conference, including SEC) gets put in the Playoff ahead of an undefeated Cinncinati team ranked in the Top4 in the Coachs' Poll, the system will implode. The G5 conferences will raise holy hell. You'll see a huge backlash against the Playoff from fans of any non-factory school because that would show that there's no way for anyone but the factories to even have a chance at a National Championship.
We already put a 1-loss Alabama that lost to Auburn and didn't even win the SEC West into the playoff ahead of several conference champs several years ago, and they won a title that year.
 

forensicbuzz

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We already put a 1-loss Alabama that lost to Auburn and didn't even win the SEC West into the playoff ahead of several conference champs several years ago, and they won a title that year.
Right, but that 1-loss team won their conference championship and there were only 2 teams. That was a huge part of what drove us to a 4-team playoff. There was a massive push-back against that happening. I believe if Cinncinati is ranked in the Top 4 in the polls (not BCS BS) and they're passed over for a 1-loss uga or or 1-loss Alabama, it will fundamentally change the way college football is viewed by the general public and there will be major changes. Same thing will happen if an undefeated or 1-loss P5 champion is passed over for a 1-loss conference runner-up.

Just my opinion.
 

slugboy

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Right, but that 1-loss team won their conference championship and there were only 2 teams. That was a huge part of what drove us to a 4-team playoff. There was a massive push-back against that happening. I believe if Cinncinati is ranked in the Top 4 in the polls (not BCS BS) and they're passed over for a 1-loss uga or or 1-loss Alabama, it will fundamentally change the way college football is viewed by the general public and there will be major changes. Same thing will happen if an undefeated or 1-loss P5 champion is passed over for a 1-loss conference runner-up.

Just my opinion.
I'm talking about 2017-18, which was a 4-team playoff. Alabama lost to Auburn, and Alabama didn't even go to the SEC title game. UGA beat Auburn for the SEC championship. Alabama beat UGA for the national championship. UCF was 13-0 (beat Auburn), and was left out of the playoffs. Auburn beat Alabama for the SEC West, and was left out.
The selection committee jumped Bama over a couple of teams to put them in. I think it was a TV ratings vote.
 

UgaBlows

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Let's assume the following, just for discussion:

Cincinnati and Oklahoma win out. The odds are certainly in favor of that.
Alabama at 11-1 plays uga at 12-0 in the SEC Championship game.

If uga wins that game they will be the top seed in the CFP. If they lose, the CFP commitee will have to decide among at least two undefeated teams ranked in the top 5, the B1G champ in a year with six B1G teams ranked in the top 25, and a team that just lost it's conference championship game.

I don't care who wins the B1G this year, they will be in the CFP. If that doesn't happpen there will be a full scale uprising in the new ACC/B1G/Pac-12 alliance.
If uga loses to Bama and then gets shut of of the playoffs that would be amazing, you could hear their wailing and gnashing of teeth in outer space
 

forensicbuzz

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I'm talking about 2017-18, which was a 4-team playoff. Alabama lost to Auburn, and Alabama didn't even go to the SEC title game. UGA beat Auburn for the SEC championship. Alabama beat UGA for the national championship. UCF was 13-0 (beat Auburn), and was left out of the playoffs. Auburn beat Alabama for the SEC West, and was left out.
The selection committee jumped Bama over a couple of teams to put them in. I think it was a TV ratings vote.
Oh, right. Forgot about that one. Well, I think in today's volatile environment, it happens again, the G5 teams will revolt. I think some of the lower P5 teams might too.
 

g0lftime

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If a 1-loss team (any conference, including SEC) gets put in the Playoff ahead of an undefeated Cinncinati team ranked in the Top4 in the Coachs' Poll, the system will implode. The G5 conferences will raise holy hell. You'll see a huge backlash against the Playoff from fans of any non-factory school because that would show that there's no way for anyone but the factories to even have a chance at a National Championship.
If this scenerio happens and it is very possible then it gives more argument for expansion of the playoff system.
 

orientalnc

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If this scenerio happens and it is very possible then it gives more argument for expansion of the playoff system.
A playoff with uga, Bama, Cincy, and Oklahoma means the B1G, ACC and Pac-12 would all be left out. This will not sit well with the new Alliance and Cincy moving to the Big-12 only adds to the problem. I wonder if making the CFP for conference champions only might be the next step.
 
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