Can we stay competitive in the NIL era?

[ClinicalCowboy]

So the age old question of how much money would a 5 star recruit go for on the open market has been answered thanks to Deion Sanders and Barstool.

1.5 million dollar NIL deal for Travis Hunter which will ultimately equate to a program investing 15-20 million dollars for a top 10 recruiting class.

Since the year 2000, no team has won a national championship without posting a top 10 recruiting class within 4 years prior to their championship. Long story short, you have to have a top 10 recruiting class to win a championship and to attain that goal, programs are going to have to fork out 20 million dollars for at least 1.


With all that being said, how in the world is GT going to be competitive again?

I assume there is going to have to be some major caps placed on these NIL deals or we are going to see these 15-20 top tier programs separate themselves from the pack by an ungodly amount which could possibly create a weird D1-A and D1-B

 

[Vespidae]

With all that being said, how in the world is GT going to be competitive again?

I assume there is going to have to be some major caps placed on these NIL deals or we are going to see these 15-20 top tier programs separate themselves from the pack by an ungodly amount which could possibly create a weird D1-A and D1-B

This topic came up recently on the Paul Finebaum Show. Finebaum handled it well. His take? "The genie is out of the bottle and it is NEVER going back."

Simply put, there is too much money being made by EVERYONE for anyone to change it. College football has more people watching than ever before (attendance, streaming, cable, etc), with more TV revenue than ever before, with more licensing revenue than ever before, with higher coaching salaries than ever before, etc etc etc.

The *theory* (and it's been bounced around the last 8-ish years), is that the CFA (College Football Association) WILL split from the NCAA eventually. And there will be a CFA Championship (for the Top 30) and an NCAA Championship (for all the wallflowers).

TStan has stated he wants Tech in the CFA when it happens. At 3-9, hard to see this happening. Gotta Win Now!

 

[LawTalkin Jacket]

I think GT needs some of this...

Texas A&M players Isaiah Spiller, Demani Richardson make $10,000 each for interviews with fan site in NIL deal

Texas A&M players Isaiah Spiller and Demani Richardson are set to make $10,000 each for exclusive interviews with Aggies-centric website TexAgs.com.

www.usatoday.com

maybe we can chip in and pay cash for interviews on GT Swarm? 500 members can chip in $20/month per year ($120,000) to be paid out during August, Sept, Oct, Dec to three players who do interviews each month? $10k each for 12 players. I think we could do that.

 

[85Escape]

I think GT needs some of this...

Texas A&M players Isaiah Spiller, Demani Richardson make $10,000 each for interviews with fan site in NIL deal

Texas A&M players Isaiah Spiller and Demani Richardson are set to make $10,000 each for exclusive interviews with Aggies-centric website TexAgs.com.

www.usatoday.com

I'll pitch into the NIL deal we set up here for exclusive "AMA" sessions here on GTSwarm. Maybe we find a good O-lineman to let us 'interview' him

 

[WreckinGT]

This topic came up recently on the Paul Finebaum Show. Finebaum handled it well. His take? "The genie is out of the bottle and it is NEVER going back."

Simply put, there is too much money being made by EVERYONE for anyone to change it. College football has more people watching than ever before (attendance, streaming, cable, etc), with more TV revenue than ever before, with more licensing revenue than ever before, with higher coaching salaries than ever before, etc etc etc.

The *theory* (and it's been bounced around the last 8-ish years), is that the CFA (College Football Association) WILL split from the NCAA eventually. And there will be a CFA Championship (for the Top 30) and an NCAA Championship (for all the wallflowers).

TStan has stated he wants Tech in the CFA when it happens. At 3-9, hard to see this happening. Gotta Win Now!

College football is eventually going to be a poor mans version of the NFL without a salary cap or draft to level competition.

 

[GTrob21]

No... the real answer to your question is No. Unless we get our well connected alumni to start opening their checkbooks and utilizing their business to help fund the football program, we can't and won't compete with the big boys.

 

[UgaBlows]

Somebody has to get control of this NIL stuff or it is really going to ruin the sport. There needs to be a cap on this per player and there needs to be a cap set for how much a school can spend on a fb program that includes coaching staff salaries, Analysts, recruiting, everything.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

Somebody has to get control of this NIL stuff or it is really going to ruin the sport. There needs to be a cap on this per player and there needs to be a cap set for how much a school can spend on a fb program that includes coaching staff salaries, Analysts, recruiting, everything.

Why is everyone so up in arms now? The sport has been ruined for decades with illiterate players who should never have been allowed to step foot on a campus, under the table money, and the bending of every rule. I’ve accepted it decades ago when I laughed at student-athletes being interviewed and were incoherent. NIL has not and will not ruin college football. And in what free country does someone believe “someone” should stop a man from making money? No one is forcing these schools to pay these stupid salaries. No one forced GT to offer the contract they did. They did it on their own like every school does. GT could have offered a high school coach $200,000 per year and we probably would have won more games. It‘s the lemming effect which has gotten us here.

 

[85Escape]

Why is everyone so up in arms now? The sport has been ruined for decades with illiterate players who should never have been allowed to step foot on a campus, under the table money, and the bending of every rule. I’ve accepted it decades ago when I laughed at student-athletes being interviewed and were incoherent. NIL has not and will not ruin college football. And in what free country does someone believe “someone” should stop a man from making money? No one is forcing these schools to pay these stupid salaries. No one forced GT to offer the contract they did. They did it on their own like every school does. GT could have offered a high school coach $200,000 per year and we probably would have won more games. It‘s the lemming effect which has gotten us here.

I believe what people are expressing is a belief that this will alter the game as we know it. The fact that the 'game as we know it' is not the game it was five years ago nor twenty-five years ago is fairly irrelevant to the expressed concern. They are correct in saying that this will alter the game as we know it from before NIL.

It's actually pretty ridiculous to claim that this isn't a monumental shift in the landscape. Sure, money has been passed along for decades. But not the kind of money we are talking about today and not as widely by a huge margin.

 

[iceeater1969]

This topic came up recently on the Paul Finebaum Show. Finebaum handled it well. His take? "The genie is out of the bottle and it is NEVER going back."

Simply put, there is too much money being made by EVERYONE for anyone to change it. College football has more people watching than ever before (attendance, streaming, cable, etc), with more TV revenue than ever before, with more licensing revenue than ever before, with higher coaching salaries than ever before, etc etc etc.

The *theory* (and it's been bounced around the last 8-ish years), is that the CFA (College Football Association) WILL split from the NCAA eventually. And there will be a CFA Championship (for the Top 30) and an NCAA Championship (for all the wallflowers).

TStan has stated he wants Tech in the CFA when it happens. At 3-9, hard to see this happening. Gotta Win Now!

You seem to know finance.
So would you buy our debt at prime?

Iirc - correct me if u see errors and give your thoughts what happens to us the divide you describe happens ..
I agree the ""have gone all in"" group will flush the "we would have gone all in but first we need to win big" group.
The sec espn got a billion a year to sec for several years before acc got their first billion. By then the sec espn was 2 billion and the acc fLls further behind every year.

Our Debt
Per Knights
We owe 385mm on gtaa physical plant . This had been 200mm since 2000 ish then it rscentky increased. Iirc Were these built based on pledges from athletic donors?? . One would assume the $ for stuff was based on the premise that it would attract better athletes and improve there performance = consistently better WL .
With wins more money would come in with ticket sales and donations. Instead of going in whole way and buying a top coach we went to a scheme that was way cheaper - the Navy flexbone and rode 0pthat cheaper management team while yearly donations and ticket sales are flat.

Imo, the debt is a very big deal if gt does not make the upper tier with its likely larger tv $.

Said the other way if we get significantly less tv revenue to the point, we dont make an operating profit - how do we get the loan renegotiated. When this happened in oil field - most of the quality folks left. If debt not written off by lender = Next is bankruptcy.

V
Is this debt real,?
is the debt based on pledges / donations by the same group that would make hiring donations? Is ""up or out"" where we are now?
!!!!Where do we get real dollars to make major coaching change after next year when we have assests of better players on team!!!!???.

I see why tstan went all in on branding and recruiting which was badly needed.
But man this player devlopment and on field coaching has been total failure.

Thanks

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

I believe what people are expressing is a belief that this will alter the game as we know it. The fact that the 'game as we know it' is not the game it was five years ago nor twenty-five years ago is fairly irrelevant to the expressed concern. They are correct in saying that this will alter the game as we know it from before NIL.

It's actually pretty ridiculous to claim that this isn't a monumental shift in the landscape. Sure, money has been passed along for decades. But not the kind of money we are talking about today and not as widely by a huge margin.

I just disagree. Just because the media talking point is this changes the landscape, it doesn’t. The 5 star players are going to go somewhere with or without NIL. So why does it matter if they go to Jackson State or FSU? The kid from last year (Ewers) it was the same “the sky is falling”. 12 months later the kid transferred and no one can remember his name. The same will happen for the Jackson State kid.

And the game is the exact same as it was 25 years ago. Why people believe the game has changed so much is beyond me. 25 years ago the Gators behind Wuerfful who won the Heisman beat FSU in the Natty. They could play with todays Bama and UGA. I’ve watched college ball for the past 45 years. Not a whole lot has changed since the early 90’s to today. Bryce Young is todays version of Charlie Ward. Those Miami, FSU, Florida teams could play with any team today. It’s just lately that the salaries have gone crazy for coaches and the schools did that on their own. But NIL isn’t going to hinder or help the top teams get good players. The top teams have always gotten the top players.

 

[MWBATL]

short answer to OP's question...

No.

 

[gville_jacket]

We haven’t really dug into the NIL stuff yet. He’s not really focused on that, he feels it’s too much of a distraction. Don’t get me wrong if that time comes then I’m sure he’ll appreciate it, but right now not so much. They have talked about it but nothing substantial mostly because we’ve told them it isn’t factoring into his decision.

Appreciate the insight! As fans/alumni, we always wonder how that part works. The media loves to exaggerate so it’s tough to understand where it really is. We’re rooting that the time of NIL does come for Zach because that means he’s winning a bunch games in the white and gold!!! THWg

 

[ChicagobasedJacket]

College football is eventually going to be a poor mans version of the NFL without a salary cap or draft to level competition.

It’s already that way. It’s only going to get worse once SEC’s latest espn contract kicks in

 

[RamblinRed]

College football is very different than it was 30 years ago and will continue to evolve in the way it has due to who runs college football.
Fans like to constantly dump on the NCAA but largely fail to understand that the NCAA has almost nothing to do with college football as the fans understand it. College football is run (and has been for almost 2 decades) by the CFP and those that run it - the P5 conference and Notre Dame.

Every decision that is made is going to be made to favor those 5 conferences, and frankly certain schools within those conferences.

All the professional sports leagues have figured out that the goal is not to have a purely capitalistic sports system that allows a few teams to dominate the sports simply due to having alot more money to spend. College football has gone the other way where the sport is largely dominated by high spending teams. The spread will increase over the coming years. While the NIL does not allow a school to directly pay a player, it does allow any booster/supporter of a school to spend however much money they want to pay the players. This will not change because the top schools do not want it to change and they will make sure it continues in this manner.

There are basically two conferences - SEC and B10 that will have larger TV contracts and raise more revenue outside of the TV contracts because of the size of their fanbases. They are just bigger schools with larger fanbases and stadiums, so they get larger TV dollars and bring in more revenue from their fanbases. B10 is expected to make bank when their TV rights are negotiated in the next couple of years.

It's pretty easy to imagine a future where there is a three tier system for college football. The top tier will be the top 25-30 teams in terms of spending. The second tier will contain the remaining current P5 schools and probably some of the larger/better G5 schools and a third tier with the rest.

We are basically already at a point where there are probably no more than 15 programs that can legitimately compete for a national title on a consistent basis.

For all intents and purposes college football has been a minor league professional sport for almost 2 decades and is moving more and more to that model.

 

[WreckinGT]

College football is very different than it was 30 years ago and will continue to evolve in the way it has due to who runs college football.
Fans like to constantly dump on the NCAA but largely fail to understand that the NCAA has almost nothing to do with college football as the fans understand it. College football is run (and has been for almost 2 decades) by the CFP and those that run it - the P5 conference and Notre Dame.

Every decision that is made is going to be made to favor those 5 conferences, and frankly certain schools within those conferences.

All the professional sports leagues have figured out that the goal is not to have a purely capitalistic sports system that allows a few teams to dominate the sports simply due to having alot more money to spend. College football has gone the other way where the sport is largely dominated by high spending teams. The spread will increase over the coming years. While the NIL does not allow a school to directly pay a player, it does allow any booster/supporter of a school to spend however much money they want to pay the players. This will not change because the top schools do not want it to change and they will make sure it continues in this manner.

There are basically two conferences - SEC and B10 that will have larger TV contracts and raise more revenue outside of the TV contracts because of the size of their fanbases. They are just bigger schools with larger fanbases and stadiums, so they get larger TV dollars and bring in more revenue from their fanbases. B10 is expected to make bank when their TV rights are negotiated in the next couple of years.

It's pretty easy to imagine a future where there is a three tier system for college football. The top tier will be the top 25-30 teams in terms of spending. The second tier will contain the remaining current P5 schools and probably some of the larger/better G5 schools and a third tier with the rest.

We are basically already at a point where there are probably no more than 15 programs that can legitimately compete for a national title on a consistent basis.

For all intents and purposes college football has been a minor league professional sport for almost 2 decades and is moving more and more to that model.

Im actually skeptical they will be able to maintain 30 teams in in such a top tier. If they continue to allow free reign spending then you will only end up with a handful of viable teams and im not sure why the 30th team spending 100 million a year would even want to stay in the top tier league with the other programs spending 500 million a year. A professional league with no regulation or competitive balance measures has no chance to succeed in the long run.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Im actually skeptical they will be able to maintain 30 teams in in such a top tier. If they continue to allow free reign spending then you will only end up with a handful of viable teams and im not sure why the 30th team spending 100 million a year would even want to stay in the top tier league with the other programs spending 500 million a year. A professional league with no regulation or competitive balance measures has no chance to succeed in the long run.

I proposed last year that with the direction things were going the NCAA needed to consider a cap on how many 4 and 5 star recruits a team could stock pile. I was roundly criticized by several indignant posters but my rationale still remains. The vast majority of top players don’t choose a school because of academics, a particular major or even loyalty to a school their parents went to. It’s all about the money and who has the best “pro” potential.

I understand all the objections to my proposal, heard them repeatedly and had even thought of them myself, but even the pros have a draft system that attempts to maintain parity.

 

[JacketOff]

I proposed last year that with the direction things were going the NCAA needed to consider a cap on how many 4 and 5 star recruits a team could stock pile. I was roundly criticized by several indignant posters but my rationale still remains. The vast majority of top players don’t choose a school because of academics, a particular major or even loyalty to a school their parents went to. It’s all about the money and who has the best “pro” potential.

I understand all the objections to my proposal, heard them repeatedly and had even thought of them myself, but even the pros have a draft system that attempts to maintain parity.

Because that’s a system and an idea that simply cannot work. You can’t just tell somebody they can’t go to a certain school because they’re too good at football. In order to regulate they have to do things like limit spending, revenue sharing, and ya know, actually punish teams who break the rules. If the NCAA had actually enforced their own rules for the last 3 decades the system would probably be in a much better place.

 

[augustabuzz]

Im actually skeptical they will be able to maintain 30 teams in in such a top tier. If they continue to allow free reign spending then you will only end up with a handful of viable teams and im not sure why the 30th team spending 100 million a year would even want to stay in the top tier league with the other programs spending 500 million a year. A professional league with no regulation or competitive balance measures has no chance to succeed in the long run.

Exactly! That's why I think Tech should say, "Well, Bye!"

 

[Vespidae]

Exactly! That's why I think Tech should say, "Well, Bye!"

Do we really say Bye? Or just pocket the cash and invest in other sports? That's what Vanderbilt does. I'm pretty sure if we withdrew from ACC football, we would lose a big chunk, if not all, of the ACC TV payout.